33 SURFACE PRESSURE AND SUNSPOT CYCLES

SLP Jan
Fig. 1 Sea surface atmospheric pressure in January Source here

Even in the height of summer we see a marked trough in surface pressure on the margins of Antarctica, a product of polar cyclone activity driven by differences in the ozone content of the air and resulting differences in air density. Of course, the contrast  between the coldness of the ice bound continent and air from the mid latitudes also helps but at 200 hPa where these cyclones are generated the contrasts seen at the surface are less apparent. Surface contrasts probably assist in allowing the upper air troughs to propagate to the surface but where these contrasts don’t exist as in Arctic summer the propagation from upper air troughs to the surface to create a polar cyclone still occurs.

January pressure
Fig 2

In winter atmospheric pressure increases in the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere increasing the differential pressure between the mid latitudes and 60-70° south. Surface pressure over Antarctica hits a planetary maximum.

July pressure
Fig. 3  Source of data for FIgs 2 and 3  here:

Figures 2 and 3 show the swings in pressure that are part of the annual cycle and the evolution of pressure over time. Mainstream climate science (is there any other) has yet to realise the importance, let alone account for the cause of that massive deficit in surface pressure in the ocean about the margins of Antarctica. ‘Climate science’ is yet to become aware  of the cumulative effect of the decadal slips in surface pressure and is incapable of making the connection with the ‘annular modes phenomenon’ or working out that the atmosphere is driven from the poles rather than the equator, let alone working out the mechanisms involved.in change. Perhaps this is because the bulk of the land mass and the population of the globe together with most of the money is in the northern hemisphere and perhaps because the Earth is round the incumbents can not see over the equatorial horizon?

WHATS HAPPENING WITH SURFACE PRESSURE IN ANTARCTICA?

SLP 80-90S by month
Fig. 4 Source of data here.

In FIG 4 the year to year variability is perhaps due to change in the rate of intake of mesospheric air into the stratosphere as it modulates the partial pressure of ozone above the 300 hPa pressure level.  The change in surface pressure  is greatest in Antarctica but it  impacts the global atmosphere from pole to pole. The southern hemisphere vortex is most influential in determining the ozone content of the air between June and November and the northern vortex between November and April.

AO and AAO
Fig 5 Source of data here.

The Arctic Oscillation and the Antarctic Oscillation indices are proxies for surface pressure over the pole. As they fall, we know that surface pressure rises over the pole. We see in fig. 5 above that a rise in the AAO, signalling a fall in surface pressure in the Antarctic forces an increase in surface pressure in the Arctic between June and November whereas the weaker, poorly structured and migratory northern vortex seems to be incapable of the same performance when it is active in northern winter. Perhaps our measurement  settings are not capturing it adequately.

The replacement of low ozone content air with high ozone content air consequent on a stalling of the intake of mesospheric air brings an increase in the temperature of the stratosphere. The greater the elevation the greater is the increase in temperature, a natural product of the fact that ozone is the agent of convection and it is ozone rich air that is lifted to the limits of the atmosphere.   This amplified response is documented at 80-90° south latitude in figure 6 below.

T of Sth Strat at 80-90S Lat
Fig 6 Source of data here.

Plainly, the largest response to an increasing presence of ozone is at the highest elevations. There has been a fundamental change in the temperature profile over the polar cap with a massive shift  from 1976 to 1978. Note that prior to this date the temperature at 10 hPa was little different to that at 200 hPa. The 200 hPa level is Jet stream altitude.What happens at 200 hPa determines the synoptic situation and is reflected at lower altitudes albeit, softened and smoothed due to the fact that not all activity at 250 hPa propagates all the way to the surface. Upper level troughs are cyclones that are insufficiently strong to  propagate all the way to the surface.But the point to be aware of is that the temperature profile between 200 hPa and 10 hPa is fundamental to the dynamics determining the movement of the atmosphere over the pole that relates to the timing of the final warming.

VARIABILITY AT DIFFERENT TIMES OF THE YEAR

Another way to assess the impact on the Antarctic stratosphere is via a whole of period assessment of temperature variability at 10 hPa according to the month of the year. To examine this each months temperature is ordered from highest to lowest regardless of the year attached to the data and the difference between the highest and lowest is derived. That difference is graphed In Fig. 7

Variability in 10hPa temp by latitude
Fig 7 Source of data here.

It is plain from  Fig 7 that in the period between 1948 and 2015 temperature variability in high southern latitudes is greatest between July and October. At lower latitudes variability is strongest in June or at the start of the year. The skew towards October reflects the impact of a developing ozone hole below 50 hPa that is forced by the intake of troposphere air containing the ozone destroyer, NOx that is drawn in laterally between 100 hPa  and 50 hPa like a gradually tightening hangman’s noose that by September occupies the entire polar cap. Very cold air drawn in from the equatorial upper stratosphere is as cold as air from the mesosphere but it has more NOx, a catalyst for the destruction of ozone. This produces a severe contrast in ozone partial pressure and air density across the vortex, generates intense polar cyclone activity and drives surface pressure at 60-70° south to its annual minimum when the hole is fully established.

the ozone hole
Fig 8 Source of data here

Fig. 8 shows NOx at 50 hPa . By 15th October 2015 NOx has destroyed all ozone between 100 hPa and 50 hPa as we see at left in Fig 9 below in terms of the distribution of ozone. The light blue line defines the position of the vortex at 50 hPa.

12th Oct
Fig 9 Source of data at left and right 

In  Fig 9,  above at right, the dotted black line represents  ozone prior to the establishment of the hole while the purple line shows the temperature profile at that time. The red line shows that temperature increases as the hole establishes in stark contrast with the narrative of those who promote the story that man is responsible for the hole, a natural feature of the polar atmosphere in spring. Big Green prefers ‘unnatural’ and it would muddy the narrative if they had to admit that the hole is a natural consequence of atmospheric dynamics.

The contrast between cold air devoid of ozone and warm air from the mid latitudes that is rich in ozone at 60° south seen in figure 9 at left drives intense polar cyclone activity giving rise to a springtime minimum in surface atmospheric pressure as seen in figure 10. It was there in 1948 but more so in November. As surface pressure has fallen and ozone partial pressure has increased the minimum is a month earlier.

SLP 60-70°S
Fig. 10 Source of data here.

The winter maximum in surface pressure seen in Fig 10 now occurs earlier than it did in 1948.

Below we see that the climate shift of 1976-8 shows up in the comparison between sea surface temperature and the temperature of the air 200 hPa (where ozone warms the air) at 25-35° south latitude. This represents enhanced ozone propagating across the latitude bands at the time of the 1976-8 climate shift, a shift that simultaneously intensified the Aleutian low in the North Pacific, the dominant low pressure, ozone rich area in the northern hemisphere with knock on effects across the Pacific and North America.

25-35°S
Fig 10 Source of data here

The increase in the temperature at 200 hPa produces an increase in geopotential height. There is a well established relationship between GPH and surface temperature as acknowledged and demonstrated in the paragraph below from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under the heading ‘Temperatures’. What a title!

NOAA statement

In this way the ozone content of the atmosphere is linked to the synoptic situation, the generation of the jet stream, upper level troughs and polar cyclones. Polar cyclones are the most vigorous and influential elements in the circulation of the atmosphere and the prime determinant of the rate of energy transfer from torrid equatorial to frigid high latitudes because they determine the pressure gradient between the equator and the pole. The warm moist westerly winds emanating from tropical rain forests pass by the high pressure systems of the mid altitudes and drive pole-wards warming the surface and giving rise to precipitation in ‘fronts’.

If the jet stream loops towards the equator cold dry polar winds sweeps equator-wards bringing near freezing conditions to mid and even low latitudes. Orange Orchards in subtropical Florida can be frosted. Cold Antarctic Air has been known to sweep northwards into Brazil. If polar atmospheric pressure increases the mid latitudes cool due to this influence and also due to increased cloud cover under high pressure systems as geopotential heights fall away with the ozone content of the air.

The progressive loss of atmospheric mass in high southern latitudes over the last seventy years has added mass to the mid altitudes and enhanced the westerly wind flow while opening up the sky to admit more solar radiation thereby warming the oceans. The result has been a marked warming of the air in high southern latitudes centred on those months where this natural variability occurs, primarily between Jun and the ozone hole months of the Antarctic springtime. See Fig 11 below.

A peculiarity  in the Antarctic record is the cooling experienced in summer over the last seventy years. The Arctic forces atmospheric mass into  high southern latitudes as it becomes ozone-active in the months November through to February keeping the westerlies at bay in the summer season giving rise to cooling in high southern latitudes.

60-90S
Fig 11 Source of data here

THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE LAST SEVENTY YEARS AND ITS POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SUNSPOT CYCLE

SLP Antarctica
Fi 12 source of pressure data here

Sunspot numbers: Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels

 

The decline of surface pressure at 80-90° south latitude is punctuated with oscillations between regimes of relatively high surface pressure that are on average about 3.5 years apart with twenty such occurrences in the last sixty nine years and an equivalent number of periods of low surface pressure. The amplitude of the swings varies little within a solar cycle but secular change seems to occur between solar cycles. Change points seem to be associated with solar minimum.

If we now superimpose the data for surface pressure  in the high Arctic we have Fig. 13:

Polar SLP
Fig 13

Remarks:

  • Over time we see a shift of atmospheric mass from the poles and a gain of mass in the region of the East Asian High pressure zone. In fact atmospheric mass is likely to accrue everywhere except in high latitudes above 50° where polar cyclones, energised by increase in the partial pressure of ozone force pressure reductions. This process has fundamentally changed the parameters of the climate system. Changed, not ‘warped’ because warping suggests something unnatural and change is a natural and ongoing process. The change in 1976-8 involved a marked drop in Antarctic surface pressure that forced an increase in Arctic surface pressure regardless of the increase in global ozone at that time. The change in surface pressure has been continuous and  frequently abrupt and in particular either side of the relatively spotless cycle 20. There is a change of slope between 21 and 22 that is common to both hemispheres.
  • The evolution of surface pressure is characteristically different in different solar cycles
  • In solar cycle 18 Antarctic atmospheric pressure is superior to that in the Arctic. This superiority disappears in solar cycle 19, the strongest of recent times.
  • The very strong solar cycle 19 saw a steep fall in atmospheric pressure over Antarctica and also over East Asia but a compensating increase in pressure in the Arctic.
  •  The weak solar cycle 20 that nevertheless exhibited strong solar wind activity, saw a fall in atmospheric pressure at the poles that proceeded ‘hand in hand’  and a strong compensatory increase in surface pressure over the Eurasian continent.
  • The climate shift of 1976-8 involved a departure from the norm of the previous solar cycle 19 in that extreme falls in atmospheric pressure over Antarctica produced short term mirror image increases in Arctic surface pressure. Antarctic pressure still declined at much the same rate as it had over cycle 20 prior to the climate shift of 1976-8 .
  • Cycle 22 sees a recovery in Antarctic pressure and a compensatory collapse in Arctic pressure now establishing at the lowest level seen in the entire 69 year period bringing on the period of strong  advance  in Arctic temperature and loss of sea ice.
  • The onset of further declines in Antarctic pressure in cycle 23 allowed a recovery in Arctic pressure that, despite stepping to a higher level at the start of the cycle, declined over the period. Mirror image effects are again apparent.
  • Cycle 24 brings a brief recovery in Antarctic pressure at the expense of the Arctic where the peaks decline quickly as successive minimums in Antarctic  pressure (except the last) are higher than the previous minimum.
  •  After solar maximum in cycle 24 the decline in surface pressure in Antarctica is spectacular involving  greatly enhanced polar cyclone activity  perhaps due to enhanced ozone production due to  increased  cosmic ray activity as solar cycle 24  enters the decline phase. Reduced sunspot and flare activity  is responsible for a very compact atmosphere that may react more vigorously to the solar wind.
  • The peak in Eurasian surface pressure occurred about 1998 and a slow decline appears to have set in.

Generalising we can say that surface pressure and surface temperature appears to be linked to solar activity but in a fashion that is completely different to the narrative that insists that ‘total solar irradiance’ is the the only factor of importance. Rather, the driver of natural change in climate  works by changing the planetary winds and cloud cover via polar atmospheric dynamics that are closely linked to the flux in the ozone content of the air. Since 1978 the swings in surface pressure in Antarctica have been vigorous suggesting that a more compact atmosphere reacts more strongly to change in the solar wind and that cosmic rays that are enhanced in a regime of low solar activity may be more influential in ionising the polar atmosphere allowing the generation of ozone and especially so  during periods where the intake of mesospheric air is disrupted and the polar stratosphere warms. It is apparent that the ozone content of the air in high latitudes peaks in late winter/spring  even though the lifetime of ozone in the atmosphere is progressively shortened due to the increase in the incidence of destructive UVB radiation as the sun rises higher in the sky and the earths orbit takes it closer to the sun. Something has to account for that extra ozone. Climate science does not even pose the question, let alone answer it.

The ‘canary in the coalmine’ that indicates the change in the forces at work can be seen in extreme surface temperature variability in February and July. These months exhibit the greatest differences in terms of the whole of period  minimum and whole of period maximum in surface pressure as seen below. It is the months of January and July that exhibit the greatest variability in surface temperature. We see that in the sphere of natural climate change, surface pressure and surface temperature are inextricably linked. But, then again we always knew that by looking at the weather from week to week.

SLP varn Antarctica
Fig 14

The evolution of Antarctic surface pressure by the month is explored in the third diagram in this chapter. It appears that the system is at a turning point. Eight of the twelve months of the year, including the critical months under the control of the Antarctic and later the Arctic, from August through to February  show signs of a rise in surface atmospheric pressure. If this continues and the  ozone content of the global atmosphere continues to fall, and with it the temperature of the upper stratosphere we might sometime witness a reversal of the climate shift of 1976-8.

TEST QUESTIONS related to Fig.15: Have you understood this chapter?

Why is it that the Antarctic stratosphere above 150 hPa warms faster than the  atmosphere below 150 hPa in spring?

Why do we see the abrupt change in slope in the temperature of the air above 70 hPa in November?

Why does temperature between the surface  and 400 hPa decline at an invariable rate between April and August while the atmosphere above becomes increasingly colder?

What is the temperature at the tropopause in August and at what elevation is it located?

Query
Fig. 15

 

POSTSCRIPT:   For the convenience of the reader I list the chapters in this treatise in order to provide an idea of the scope of the work and the manner of its development. At the end is a list of chapters currently in preparation.

Reality

How the Earth warms and cools in the short term….200 years or so…the De Vries cycle

Links to chapters 1-38

  1. HOW DO WE KNOW THINGS Surface temperature is intimately tied to the global circulation of the air and the distribution of cloud.Ozone is inextricably linked to surface pressure and cloud. The key to unlocking the cause of climate change lies in observation.
  2. ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN YOUR OWN HABITAT On accessing and manipulating data to trace the way climate changes regionally. It is essential to understand the manner in which the globe warms and cools if one is to correctly diagnose the cause.
  3. HOW THE EARTH WARMS AND COOLS NATURALLY It is observed that the surface warms when geopotential height increases. This chapter answers the question why geopotential height increases.
  4. THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE STRATOSPHERE  Answers the question ‘at what elevation does the incidence of ozone cut in as a means for heating the atmosphere thereby creating what has been erroneously described the ‘stratosphere’. In winter its anything but stratified. It should be renamed ‘The Startosphere’.
  5. THE ENIGMA OF THE COLD CORE POLAR CYCLONE High latitude cyclones are the most vigorous circulations on the planet. At the surface they have a cold core. Their warm core is in the upper troposphere where the ozone impinges. No cyclone can form without a warm core.
  6. THE POVERTY OF CLIMATOLOGY Geopotential height at 200 and 500 hPa vary together in the extra-tropical latitudes. Furthermore, the increase in geopotential height that accompanies the surface pressure change is accompanied by a loss of cloud cover. All ultimately relate to the changing flux of ozone in the upper half of the atmospheric column in high latitudes.
  7. SURFACE TEMPERATURE EVOLVES DIFFERENTLY ACCORDING TO LATITUDE Surface temperature change is a two way process that occurs at particular times of the year.
  8. VOLATILITY IN TEMPERATURE. Temperature change is a winter phenomenon, increasing in amplitude towards the poles
  9. MANKIND IN A CLOUD OF CONFUSION Our understanding of the atmosphere is primitive.
  10. MANKIND ENCOUNTERS THE STRATOSPHERE. The origin of the stratosphere was a mystery back in 1890 and we still haven’t got it right.
  11. POPULATION, SCARCITY AND THE ORGANISATION OF SOCIETY. A dispassionate view of the Earth, considering its ability to promote plant life, sees the planet as distinctly cooler than is desirable.
  12. VARIATION IN ENERGY INPUT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. The atmosphere mediates the flow of solar energy to the surface of the planet via change in cloud cover. How could this be overlooked?
  13. THE PROCESSES BEHIND FLUX IN CLOUD COVER. A discussion of some of the intricacies involved in the relationship between surface pressure, cloud cover and the uptake of energy by the Earth system.
  14. ORGANIC CLIMATE CHANGE A discussion of the big picture that focuses on the natural sources of climate change.
  15. SCIENCE VERSUS PROPAGANDA The scare campaign about ‘global warming’ or ‘climate change’ is not based on science. Science demands observation and logic.  There is a ‘disconnect’ between observed change and the hypothesis put forward to explain it. One cannot ‘do science’ in the absence of accurate observation. What is being promoted as ‘Climate Science’ by the UNIPCC fails at the most basic level.
  16. ON BEING RELEVANT AND LOGICAL Climate scientists freely admit they do not know what lies behind surface temperature change that is natural in origin that expresses itself regionally and with large differences according to latitude i.e. the annular modes (Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations). In that circumstance it is nonsense to attribute change to the influence of man. There is an error in logic. But, its wilful.
  17. WHY IS THE STRATOSPHERE WARM Is the warmth of the stratosphere due to the interception of ultraviolet radiation or heating due to the interception of long wave radiation from the Earth? This issue is fundamental. Observation provides the answer.
  18. THE OZONE PULSE, SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND The direction and intensity of the wind and the distribution of ozone is closely related. This chapter gives an introduction to the nature and origin of the annular modes phenomenon.
  19. SHIFT IN ATMOSPHERIC MASS AS A RESULT OF POLAR CYCLONE ACTIVITY The distribution of ozone maps surface pressure. When the partial pressure of ozone builds pressure falls locally and is enhanced elsewhere.
  20. THE DISTRIBUTION OF ATMOSPHERIC MASS CHANGES IN A SYSTEMATIC FASHION OVER TIME Surface pressure changes on long time schedules. UNIPCC climate science is oblivious to these changes and the consequences attached to the change.
  21. THE WEATHER SPHERE-POWERING THE WINDS. The strongest winds can be found at the overlapping interface of the troposphere and the stratosphere and we haven’t yet worked out why or what it means when change occurs at that interface.
  22. ANTARCTICA: THE CIRCULATION OF THE AIR IN AUGUST An introduction to the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere in high latitudes
  23. THE DEARLY BELOVED ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE, A FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS. The celebrated ‘hole’ is actually a natural feature of the Antarctic atmosphere in spring and has always been so. It’s dictated by geography and process during the final warming.
  24. SPRINGTIME IN THE STRATOSPHERE More detail on the natural processes responsible for the ozone hole.
  25. WHERE IS OZONE? PART 1 IONISATION. The structure of the upper atmosphere is dictated by process. Hand waving is no substitute for observation.
  26. WHERE IS OZONE PART 2 EROSION More on the processes responsible for the structure of the atmosphere in high latitudes and in particular the manner in which tongues of air of tropical origin are drawn into the polar circulation.
  27. COSMIC RAYS, OZONE AND THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RESPONSE Observation and logic suggest that both the solar wind and cosmic rays are independently influential in determining the partial pressure of ozone in high latitudes. No other possibility is remotely plausible.
  28. MISREPRESENTING THE TRUTH Ozone, not UV radiation warms the upper air in winter
  29. THE PURPOSE OF SCIENTISTS History is re-interpreted continuously to suit the purposes of elites. Science is moulded in that same way by virtue of the fact that the elites hold the purse strings. All is ‘spin’.
  30. THE CLIMATE SHIFT OF 1976-1980. The nitty gritty of how climate changes together with the basics of a theory that can explain the natural modes of variation. Observation and theory brought together in a manner that stands the test of common sense.
  31. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HEMISPHERES: THE ORIGIN OF STRATOSPHERIC WARMINGS. Unfortunately climate science has a lot to learn. It has to begin with observation rather than mathematical abstractions. In fact, it’s best to keep the mathematicians at arms length.
  32. THE CLIMATE ENGINE THAT IS THE OZONOSPHERE . The atmosphere re-defined to take account of the critical processes that determine its movements and thereby the equator to pole temperature gradient. Takes a close look at processes inside and outside the winter time polar vortex. The system is the product of the distribution of ozone.
  33. SURFACE PRESSURE AND SUNSPOT CYCLES .  This chapter looks at the evolution of surface pressure and how it relates to solar activity. It explores the nature of the interaction between the atmosphere at the northern and southern poles.
  34. WEATHER ORIGINATES IN THE OZONOSPHERE Takes the focus to a regional and local perspective to answer the question as to why the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere have been colder in winter of 2016.
  35. JET STREAMS Compares and contrasts two quite different explanations for the strong winds that manifest where the troposphere and the stratosphere overlap.
  36. JET STREAMS AND CLIMATE CHANGE Looks at some great work that measures the ozone content of the air across the northern hemisphere and sets up a classification in a novel fashion, by zone of commonality rather than latitude. Relates the distribution of ozone to the occurrence of the subtropical and polar jet streams.  Zones of surprisingly uniform ozone content lie between the jets, and both pole-wards and equator-wards of the jets. Tropopause height steps down at the latitude of the jets creating marked contrasts in atmospheric density. This is a very useful and rock solid survey of great importance given the relationship between ozone and surface pressure.
  37. THE HISTORY OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN TERMS OF UPPER AIR TEMPERATURE An examination of temperature dynamics at the 10 hPa pressure surface over the poles.Critical to understanding the evolution of climate over the period of record.
  38. E.N.S.O. RE-INTERPRETED. The origin of the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon and why the matter is of little consequence.

 

Here is how would I explain the Earth’s natural modes of climate change to a child!

Let us consider the Earth as a car. We are at some latitude (like being in the back or the front seat of a car). Let’s imagine we have the heater in the front of the car and a vent over the back seat. You can open and close the vent and turn it to the front to scoop in air or to the back and suck air out of the car. So, the cold air from the vent can blow straight down the back of your neck or you can turn the vent around so that it sucks air out of the car so that the warm air from the engine travels to the back of the car.

Ozone heats the air in winter creating polar cyclones that lower surface pressure at the pole attracting a flow of air from the equator. More ozone = lower surface pressure in high latitudes = wind blows more often from the equator. Less ozone= higher surface pressure at the pole= wind from equator does not come. Instead, a cold wind comes from the pole similar to what would happen if you turned the vent in the car roof so it faced forwards.

The second way in which ozone changes surface temperature is by changing cloud cover. Because ozone is mainly present in the upper air and it ascends strongly at the poles in winter it has to come down somewhere else. Where it  descends it warms the air and evaporates cloud letting the sun shine through to be absorbed by the ocean that acts like a battery because it stores energy.  Full dense cloud  curtails solar radiation by as much as 90%.

The climate varies by warming and cooling  in winter. It is in winter that we see the big changes in 1. Polar surface pressure, 2. The ozone content of the air 3. The direction of the wind and hence  the temperature at the surface.

Change can be two way, both warming and cooling.

Ozone is inextricably linked to surface pressure. The key to unlocking the cause of climate change lies in working out what can change the ozone content of the air near the poles in winter.

 

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17 thoughts on “33 SURFACE PRESSURE AND SUNSPOT CYCLES

  1. This bit confused me. ” progressive loss of atmospheric mass in high southern latitudes over the last seventy years has added mass to the mid altitudes ” … Which mid altitudes got the Mass from the high southern latitudes?…..the car vent analogy was not flash IMO either. Sorry.

    I really like charts 6&7 but chart15 is cool. The temp minima at very high altitude 10-70hPa occurring 2-3 months before the mid-to-high-altitude 150-300hPa minima. Then from the lower altitude 500-1000hPa (Surface) the minima pretty much returns to the same, but broader, trough seen at the very high altitudes. Why the shift in onset of the minima at this Level?. Is it not the warm equatorial air being sucked into the Vortex? Given the lack of mass in 10-70hPa I could accept the rapid rise in temp but to see it actually surpass the 150-300hPa to match the 500-600hPa temps in nearly one month (Oct) s impressive. Lapse rate begone.

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  2. Macca, the redistribution of polar atmospheric mass adds very little to mid and low latitudes by the time its spread over that much greater surface area. Otherwise you would see it reflected in figures 2 and 3. Download the data and you will see the variable rates of increase according to latitude.

    The flow of air within a car is an analogy that emphasises that on the Earth cold air comes from one place and warm from the opposite direction. Change the direction of the surface wind and change the temperature. Shift atmospheric mass from the poles and pressure falls there increasing the flow from the equator where surface pressure is increased. Take it at face value. That is what has happened to warm the climate. It may not look that sophisticated an argument but it is precisely what has happened in the southern hemisphere over the last seventy years.

    For the evolution of the temperature of the upper air please download data from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl. and graph it on a spreadsheet. You will learn a lot about the atmsophere in the process. I demonstrate this process in chapter 2.

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    1. Brett, Is the summer time plant usage of CO2 being interpreted as a transport phenomenon? Some strange ideas here. The notion that CO2, a heavy molecule can be independently transported across the equator and up into higher altitudes where is somehow lost is one. The notion that the troposphere ‘contains’ CO2 or that the tropopause is some sort of barrier is another. If the pictures were dated it would help. Did I see a CO2 hole over the Amazon at one stage. That would be expected.

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      1. Erl, I suggest you converse with the writer, who obviously has skill. Unlike me, a student in this field. Brett

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  3. Below is from a summary of some of Mr Cropp’s work, concerning atmospheric flow paths: (http://www.blozonehole.com/blozone-hole-theory/blozone-hole-theory/carbon-cycle-using-nasa-oco-2-satellite-images#). You two may be on similar paths:

    The authors expressed great uncertainty as to the reasons for volume and magnitude at these levels given current knowledge. Given the evidence above my interpretation is :

    A – NH winter – the movement of CO2 from the major NH emissions belt follows a path of least resistance, and as a result it travels towards the south and north until reaching the equator and Arctic upwelling. Where it then rises vertically into the higher atmospheres showing a significant rise in CO2 at all three altitudes.

    B – NH spring – the rise of the Northern Hemisphere tropopause in spring increases the atmospheric volume and reduces the pressure, which restricts the flow to higher altitudes.

    C – May to November – this is the outward flow from the NH to SH transport. The decrease in the NH tropopause height in late July increases troposphere pressure and momentum to displacing the CO2 rich atmosphere southward. The majority of the movement is towards Antarctica where it is transferred to higher altitudes, with some atmosphere continuing out the equator upwelling.

    D – NH autumn – the tropopause is nearing the end of height reductionand air displacment air southward. The SH spring increases the height of the tropopause alleviating the incoming atmospheric pressure from the NH and reducing the loss.

    Notes

    Where the CO2 curve peaks at MLO in Fig. 33 and starts to decline, it is in close proximity to the rise in CO2 at higher altitudes. MLO records the transport south mainly to Antarctica, and the rise at all three altitudes above.

    From this CO2 chart in Fig. 33 even though there are only six readings (sweeps) per annum we can see that the 80, 90 and 100km are in sync with the cycles described above in Sections one and two above. The entire vertical column is in outward displacement. It is not random or chaotic, it is simply responding to what is happening at surface level. The high altitude curves vary in volume movement year to year to reflect the tropospheric / surface temperature driven conditions.

    At the 80 and 90km altitudes CO2 accumulations are increasing in sync with MLO. The increase in volume at 80 and 90km increases the column weight / density and therefore the tropospheric residual increase.At 100km while the annual movements are great the residual appears near static as the CO2 passes through to the ultimate carbon sink – space.

    The Study by Jai Yue et al, concluded that at the the 80 and 90km levels the decadal rate of increase was inline with Mauna Loa at 5%, but at 110km altitude the rate increased to 12%. After extensive reasurch my summary is that all sampling stations on the surface and those readings out to 80 and 90km altitude are simply “bus stops” measuring passing traffic. They do not depict the true extent of anthropogenic and biosphere emissions, they record the seasonal amount that passes through. There is NO full seasonal accumulation within the troposphere that accounts for all emissions. This is evident when looking at Fig. 30 and 31, where the CO2 is seen entering the Antarctic vortex at stratosphere altitudes without any record at surface level. It is not until the 110km level where the movement slows and true accumulation starts.

    What must be remembered is that the CO2 transported to higher altitudes and beyond is part of the normal troposphere atmospheric mix. Lighter gases such as Oxygen, Hydrogen and Helium are leaving our atmosphere at much higher altitudes according to this report “The curious case of Earths leaking atmosphere” mainly via the poles at a rate of 90 tonnes per day. CO2 is heavier and appears to be accumulating at atltitudes detailed directly above. I have not taken the time to fully evaluate the reasons at this point. Both of the papers regarding atmosphere at higer altitudes referred to in this section have no answer as to how that gases were increasing at these higher altitudes. I guess some scientific laws may need reviewing as well as they do not confine our atmosphere, only our minds.

    Earths atmosphere is not a closed system and this should be very evident by now. While the review above is not scientifically perfect it is accurate and follows a long term study.

    This is The Real carbon Cycle – All this natural tropospheric CO2 removal at no cost.

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    1. Brett. Thanks for taking the trouble to state the main points of the argument. I cant agree with Mr Cropp.

      The observed seasonal cycle in the CO2 content of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere is the result of the coming to life of the northern forests and tundra in summer when the burden of snow on the pine trees disappears and the soil thaws. North of the forests the tundra, where the ground freezes in winter comes to life. The 10 degree isotherm moves (enables photosynthesis) almost to the Arctic. There is no parallel in the southern hemisphere, no high latitude land surfaces, in fact very little land to warm the air and make the clouds disappear. 90% of the global ocean is covered by cloud at any particular time and about 30% of the land. That’s an atmospheric heating effect(by opaque land surfaces) that produces a globe that is warmer when the suns irradiance is 6% less in July.

      Talk about transport down the ocean corridors or CO2 circulating in the north Pacific is nonsense. Fact is there are no plants to utilise CO2 where there is no soil. Consider the surface area of all the leaves of a tree in relation to the surface area of land that it occupies. There are organisms that utilise CO2 in the oceans but they are limited to the amount that can be dissolved in the seawater at the surface. Warm water holds a lot less CO2 than cold water, one reason for the thriving economy where water from the deep rises to the surface as off Chile and South Africa.

      Gordon Dobson makes the point that like petrol and water, the lighter element floats to the top and the heavier to the bottom. But if you stir it efficiently enough you can mix the two so effectively that there is no difference in the composition of the liquid between the bottom and the top. That’s what the atmosphere does. It moves so much and so vigorously, particularly in the winter hemisphere, and the more so with increasing elevation that it becomes well mixed including 99.9% of its mass. It’s the remainder that gets ionised to the extent of about 1% of its volume. Once in the ionosphere it’s a different ball game. But, here it’s predominantly the lightweight O2 that gets ionised.

      Gases are much lighter than liquids….the temperature is such that they are in the gaseous rather than the liquid phase. Once in the gaseous phase they move according to the kinetic energy resident in each constituent part and in an unrestricted environment they ‘diffuse’ and ‘dissipate’. You cannot make an enduring blanket of a heavier gas to protect wine in an open container from oxidation. Many winemakers assume you can and because they never actually measure the composition of their head space. If you can’t actually see an object the imagination is used. The comfort is illusory. You need to exhaust the total head space and close the container to get the desired result.

      The minute reduction in the CO2 content of the air in northern summer is an indication of the strength of the plant sink in northern summer. Looking at a map you might assume that it’s moved and gone somewhere else. But it moves on all time scales and the rate of movement in the region of the interaction zone between the troposphere and the stratosphere is much greater than at the surface. The greatest rate of mixing to the greatest elevation is in high latitudes in winter. Ozone shows us that. It’s a very good tracer to indicated convection.

      Water vapour is not well mixed. Cold air has little capacity to hold water vapour.

      The real mystery is why ozone proliferates in the winter hemisphere and why it is so intimately involved in the movement of the air. That’s what my theory is about.

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    2. Hi Brett, One thing that its easy to forget about is the fact that the atmosphere is very thin. If it had the same density as it has at the surface throughout, it would top out at 8 kilometres in elevation. Generally, the thinner it is the faster it moves. In the ionosphere it becomes a plasma, conducts electricity and moves very fast in accord with the ever changing magnetic field. If there is nothing in the way a charged particle with very little mass, therefore less subject to the gravitational pull of the Earth, can spray out to space.

      But there is always something in the way. Estimates of the number of atoms in space range from 10 to 1000 per cubic centimetre. Dobson ‘Exploring the Atmosphere’ 1963. p8.

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  4. Re: ‘It is the months of January and July that exhibit the greatest variability in surface temperature.’

    Is that related to perihelion (January) and aphelion (July) at all?

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    1. Oldbrew, your query is well worth making and well worth answering.
      The Earth has its own dynamics that works in unexpected ways. Global temperature peaks in July when the Earth is furthest from the sun. This is due to loss of cloud due to the massive amount of energy imparted to the atmosphere by the continents of the northern hemisphere in mid year. But there is no source of variability in this relationship unless something changes the source of the air or cloud cover.
      Ozone is a greenhouse gas. Its absorbs infrared from the Earth that is abundantly available day and night, instantly imparting energy to adjacent molecules and going again, doing the same thing again. Its ability to impart energy is limited by its ability to get rid of it when excited. So, its heating ability is surface pressure dependent. It has been calculated (not by me) that it imparts as much energy to the troposphere as to the stratosphere. The temperature of the stratosphere is not determined by ionization processes at 50 hPa where ozone happens to be most abundant, because ionization is by and large a process that occurs in the upper 1% of the atmosphere, above 1 hPa. It can be demonstrated that even at 10 hPa, the temperature of the air is largely of not completely due to the absorbtion of infrared. So, the reversal of the lapse rate above the tropopause is due to the presence of ozone and that phenomenon does not disappear on the night side and nor does the temperature of the stratosphere at 50 hPa or even 10 hPa show a response to the presence or absence of solar radiation.
      No one knows why ozone proliferates in the winter hemisphere and particularly so at 60-70° of latitude forming the outer margin of the polar vortex.
      No one knows why the ozone content of the air and the temperature of the stratosphere in high altitudes varies over time. It’s not chlorofluorocarbons because it has been doing this before they were invented.
      The moisture capacity of the air varies with its temperature. As the air heats during the day clouds disappear into thin air.
      Ozone is rapidly conveyed across all latitudes by strong winds in the horizontal in the overlap between the troposphere and the stratosphere. The 200 hPa pressure level where jet streams manifest are in that overlap.
      Geopotential height is a measure of the height of a pressure level. When it’s elevated it tells us that the atmospheric column below the point of measurement is warm. GPH at 200 hPa and at 500 hPa vary together at all latitudes between the equator and 60° north and south.
      Sea surface temperature varies directly with geopotential height and surface pressure. In this way the origin of the wind and the cloud cover in the sky changes with the ozone content of the air. It does so most in the dead of winter when the ozone content of the air at the winter pole peaks….but very irregularly from year to year and changing over time.
      At the winter pole convection carries ozone to the top of the atmosphere. It has to come down somewhere and for choice it goes with the high pressure zones of descending air in low and mid latitudes.
      If you understand this chain of causation you may be the only other person other than me who has a grip on it. It’s the source of natural climate variation, the only game in town.

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    1. Ren, Thanks for bringing this to my attention. It’s very unusual for the southern hemisphere to have a split vortex at this time of the year. To look at this phenomenon we could look at temperature, geopotential height or the distribution of ozone, the latter being the real cause. I choose to look at the cause. I think that split at 5 hPa is the product of a very unbalanced circulation of the sort that you get in the northern hemisphere where convection due to ozone is concentrated in the North Pacific.

      Here is the story as I see it.

      There is an unusually warm Eastern Pacific Ocean after the El Nino bringing warm water southwards to New Zealand and a very cold Eastern Pacific as vigorous westerlies accelerate the circumpolar current. This promotes the presence of a sticky zone of intense ascent in the western Pacific Ocean that has resulted in a lot of ozone in the atmospheric column and it convects to 1 hPa as seen here https://i0.wp.com/reality348.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/ozone-28jul.jpg?ssl=1&w=450

      At 50 hPa this zone of accumulation is intense as seen here: https://i1.wp.com/reality348.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/ozone-3d-aug.jpg?ssl=1&w=450 Circulation is intensely laminar with ozone deficient air from the north being sucked in as the air spins about the pole. Intensely low surface pressure at 60-70° south.

      The identifier for air that has come from the troposphere with a lot of ozone in it can be seen in the NOx concentration here https://i2.wp.com/reality348.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/bascoe-nox.jpg?ssl=1&w=450

      This situation has been gradually developing over a week or more https://i2.wp.com/reality348.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/25-jul.jpg?ssl=1&w=450

      The vortex is still a singular very strong element at 30 hPa https://i1.wp.com/reality348.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/vortex-at-30hpa.jpg?ssl=1&w=450

      There is always warm ozone rich air being sucked back into the vortex and its most obvious at 1 hPa https://i0.wp.com/reality348.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/1-hpa-sucking-in.jpg?ssl=1&w=450 It is interesting that this is happening over the Atlantic Ocean rather than the Pacific. At 1 hPa the atmosphere spins about the pole faster than it does at lower elevations in the same direction as the Earth itself but faster. The higher the elevation the faster it moves. This tells me that there is an electromagnetic influence determining the speed of the circulation and that it will respond to change in the solar wind. It will also be stronger at times when the atmosphere is more compact when solar short wave radiation is relatively weak. Like now. And Ren, I do agree with you that cosmic ray activity must be facilitating the synthesis of ozone. We currently have the lowest surface pressure experienced in Antarctica for 70 years.

      So, the circulation is driven not from the equator where all the heat is received but from the winter pole and you would have to be intellectually retarded to see it any other way.

      All very interesting. There is a lot to learn.

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      1. Svenmark seems to have a handle on cosmic rays and clouds cover, esp if separating SH from NH rather than global – avoid smearing). Others are adding to his theory all the time. This one focusses on Antarctic solar winds with geopotential height. . Wendel, J. (2015), How the solar wind may affect weather and climate, Eos, 96, doi:10.1029/2015EO022311. Published on 15 January 2015. Paywalled but lots of links that sumaarise it if you search around. Its so annoying to see the proliferation of “global” and “average” terms without the regional detail to show the contribution to the global result. eg. Three zones would be Great; north, south, equator. Erl, many of your SH, NH polar graphs do this well.

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  5. I forgot the quotes – the summary is Mr Cropps. Now, he is a Kiwi who works with gas physics. I reckon this is an importasnt field for real climate understanding. So I have been working on this for a few years accros from my main fields of plant and soil science. They started me off by showing me the climate was not doing what we were being told. And, to quote Rutherford, originally a Kiwi chemist, “it’s all physics anyway”. Mr Cropp is not a competitor, you know, and some cross-fertilisation might be beneficial……

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    1. Hi Brett,
      Appreciate the background. It takes a smattering of understanding across may disciplines to begin to put a pattern together. I am currently trying my hardest to finish this writing exercise because I have other things to be doing. When I finish I will hopefully come back to Mr Cropp’s work. But I can’t get through a paragraph of his work at the moment without coming across an issue. Currently, I think my time is best spent in trying to explain interrelationships rather than raising queries. That could take a long time.

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