New Book: The Movement of the Atmosphere

When climate change is reduced to incremental additions or subtractions to monthly temperature then it is seen to different according to the month of the year, by latitude and according to hemisphere. Change proceeds in a sinusoidal fashion on Hale Cycle (roughly 22 year) intervals. Change is intimately related to the evolution of surface atmospheric pressure that drives the movements of the atmosphere. Change is unaffected by trace gas composition. It is driven by variations in cloud albedo that are locked to variations in surface atmospheric pressure. The indications are that surface temperature is likely to decline in the current and the next decade.

I have been busy over the winter. Its been wet and when its not raining, extremely cold, so it seemed like a good time to be indoors.

Rather than post a series of articles I thought it better to have a coherent and sequential development, a logical progression and everything in one place.

Its been a rush, because there are so many important things to do. Editorial assistance would be much appreciated. Disturbingly, I discover occasionally, that I have typed, is the opposite of that intended. Perhaps that’s connected to a tendency to dyslexia. I’ve done my best to screen out that sort of thing, but improvement is always possible. I’m conscious that Chapter 12 is a ramble. Impatient by nature, I’m addicted to the quick fix. Perhaps ‘quick and rough’ or ‘quick and dirty’.

I want to thank all the people around me who keep on keeping on when I go into myopic, isolationist, research mode.

I want to thank in advance those who give feedback, offer an opinion or an alternative point of view, either here, by way of comment or direct by email to erl@happs.com.au

Chapter headings are:

Chapter 1. On the attribution of climate change

Chapter 2 The manner of the warming

Chapter 3 Possible mechanisms

Chapter 4. Energy flows by latitude. Incoming, reflected, absorbed, transferred, emitted

Chapter 5 Change in the Earths energy budget

Chapter 6 Climate variation due to upwelling phenomena

Chapter 7 Change in the pressure differential across the Pacific Ocean

Chapter 8 Evolution of temperature in the upper troposphere at 30-40°, 20-30° and 10-20° South latitude

Chapter 9 Variability in the pressure differential across the Pacific according to month of year

Chapter 10 Variability in sea surface temperature at the Galapagos, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere and at the Equator.

Chapter 11 To what extent is the upwelling phenomenon reflected in the evolution of surface temperature in the Southern and the Northern Hemispheres?

Chapter 12 Change in cloud albedo drives change in air temperature

Chapter 13 Energy transfer by the atmosphere

Chapter 14 General conclusion to this work

Free download here

The most important insight is to do with the nature of the ENSO phenomenon, its origin, the universality of upwelling phenomena in determining surface temperature, the identity between change in wind speed, change in cloud cover, and the warming of the sub surface and the impact of all this on the evolution of surface temperature playing out differently in the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres.

I doubt the existence of any ‘greenhouse effect’ that supposedly raises surface temperature to habitable levels and point to the Ocean that occupies about 71% of the surface of the planet, that in being transparent, is uniquely fitted to acquire and store energy. Its surface temperature is driven by evaporative and mixing processes and rather than insolation from the sun. The atmosphere is gaseous. It has very different properties to water. Radiation by the atmosphere is of minor importance in determining surface temperature. Gas expands when it is warmed and is immediately displaced upwards. It flies better than a kite. Inside a couple of minutes, the rising gas is subject to sub freezing temperatures.

Sadly, or otherwise, depending upon your point of view, Western Civilization is imploding. The argument about climate is inseparably connected to the rise of China and the demise of Europe and the United States. The expression: ‘a drowning man clutching at straws’ is apt. Ethical Investment is a design for impoverishment.

If you want Australia and the West to go on the offensive against China, first, take into account the point of view of Martin Jacques, a man uniquely attuned to the desirability of adopting a well educated, appreciative, cross cultural point of view. Ray Dalio, a long term student of China and the rise and fall of empires, also makes a lot of sense.

This distraction with ‘climate’ and sabre rattling in connection with China is ruinous and likely terminal.

The Southern Hemisphere, as a whole, has not experienced any increase in temperature in the month of January since the decade 1978-1987. Let that statement sink in.

Over the largest portion of the globe, for the largest portion of time, temperature is sub optimal for photosynthesis. All life depends on plants. Let that statement sink in.

13 thoughts on “New Book: The Movement of the Atmosphere

  1. All I can say is ” about time”. Good luck.  I have a copy to read and review.

    PS. I have semi retired now and moved to Jurien Bay on  a few acres, views to ocean and mount lesieur.

    Cheers. Pete Machen Aka Macha.

    ⁣Get BlueMail for Android ​

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  2. I noticed your comments on the SEEDS Blog of Tim Morgan, My comments were barred there a couple of years back, it seems that it is a Huge echo chamber for Catastrophism and Sychophancy these days.
    My Two latest Blogs which Advance the Critique of Tims obsession with Energy becoming somehow both scarce and expensive to Extract. Both of which are belief based predicates not supported empirically.
    Unravelling Catastrophe. Seeds of Hope or Seeds of destruction.

    Unravelling Catastrophe. Seeds of Hope or Seeds of destruction.


    #163. Tales from Mount Incomprehension

    Will! on January 26, 2020 at 12:02 pm said:

    “Because literally none of the goods and services which comprise the economy could be produced without energy, it should hardly be necessary to point out that the economy is an energy system. Equally, it should be obvious that, whenever energy is accessed for our use, some of that energy is always consumed in the access process. This access component is known here as the Energy Cost of Energy (ECoE), and it forms a critical part of the equation which determines our prosperity.”

    Thank you for another interesting post Dr Morgan.

    Does SEEDS offer any insight into how the rate at which energy is accessed by the economy affects our prosperity?

    For example, shale appears to have increased the rate at which chemical energy can be accessed by the economy relative to the economy’s ability to use it (i.e. convert that chemical energy to other forms of energy) and so the monetary price of oil has fallen even as the ECoE has risen.

    The economy appears to change the way it uses energy more rapidly in response to the monetary price of oil that it does in response to rising ECoE. Some of the changes in response to a lower price of oil appear to exacerbate the effects of rising ECoE. How can economic actors look beyond the oil price?

    It is interesting but not wholly surprising to me that Dr. Tim Morgan has not answered this “Confounding” question showing the inconvenient truth in Dr. Morgans Seeds analysis. Seeds is something of a black box , we are not allowed to look under the hood of Dr. Morgans claims that Energy Cost of energy (ECOE) is acting as a hard limit to the prospect of prosperity in the world economy.

    This question from Will, shows how far short Dr Morgans analysis comes up in answering the Balance between the effects of Finance and the Financialised Economy over the real Energy availability questions. The shortcomings in Dr. Morgan’s analysis encompass Ignorance of Technological innovation and invention and in short, the massive trend we see of actors in the modern economy’s ability to do more with less as per pro current technology and energy mixes.

    Energy, Currency, FIAT, Marginal Pricing, Futures. ELECTRICITY, Coal. Transport Fuels, Petroleum, Diesel, Kerosene Bunker, PetroChemicals, Natural Gas, Hydro, Nuclear . WInd Wave Solar Other?

    Energy, Currency, FIAT, Marginal Pricing, Futures. ELECTRICITY, Coal. Transport Fuels, Petroleum, Diesel, Kerosene Bunker, PetroChemicals, Natural Gas, Hydro, Nuclear . WInd Wave Solar Other?


    I have been getting my head further around The Energy Market and how it affects the money supply
    I think the priority variables are
    1. Electricity Base Load production, Coal and Natural Gas, and LPG products?
    2. Crude Oil Production and Refinery capacities, Volumes of production are more important than the price per barrel
    =3. Swing Production from Shale or Capped and ready to go existing discoveries, Very important to who has upper hand on Marginal pricing on swing production, Texas Rail Road, OPEC, US Shale production?
    =3. Gas Production and Coal production are probably equal with 3 or interchangeable with 3.
    5. Venezuelan and Iranian supply disruption through Sanctions is a political bottleneck to an otherwise trivial supply problem in the Oil Market.
    6. Geo-Political and Green New Deal political economy choices vis Gas Pipe Lines ( Nord Stream / Syria / Ukraine ) are again self-inflicted own goals? Why?

    Best wishes Erl.
    Roger Lewis

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    1. Roger, I agree with you, the assertion that the economic cost of accessing energy is increasing needs substantiation. Its obviously true on the micro scale as miners extract the richest, thickest seams in a particular location and have to move overburden to extract the thinner seams. But only insofar that one assumes that all resources have already been discovered and are being worked through. That’s obviously not the case.

      The cost of extracting coal is likely still declining given the development of machinery and systems since the advent of the bulldozer and the front end loader. It wasn’t long ago that coal was won with a pick and shovel. The tools being used to do the job are constantly being improved and the manpower requirement shaved.

      I believe that the biggest problems relate to credit, leverage and the tendency for income to go to the very rich to the exclusion of the middle and bottom. Take the credit away from the middle and the bottom or start to inflate their payments via increasing the rate of interest and we will begin to see how this house of cards behaves.

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      1. Hi Erl,
        I think you and I are very much on the same page, the ivory tower mob really do have a lot to answer for as well as far to much continuing influence on Policy.
        Sanctions on Iran and Venezuela see a big gap in potential absolute Oil and condensate output and of course, The lessons of Industrial history are that more is done with less in the true Bucky Fullmeister tradition.
        I have seen a lot of commenters come and Go at Tims’s blog, I was cheered to see your comments but unsurprised at the usual ” I don’t debate with Climate denier” responses.
        Tim did actually publish my comment, even before he had stopped doing that my comments had been moderated regardless of Links being included or not.
        Great to be in touch, I hope thing is OZ are getting back to normal or do so fairly quickly, The Covid 19 response is in my view largely to do with the FInancial Collapse from 2019 and implementing the Blackstone going Direct Central Bank DIgital currencies play.
        Best wishes,
        Roger

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  3. Hi Erl,

    Have downloaded the book. Had a quick scan through but my brain started to spin out of control. Just too much detail. It will take quite a while to absorb it.

    Rob

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  4. Thanks Rob, at the centre of everything is the polar cyclone that generates shifts in atmospheric mass. This is known as the Annular Modes phenomenon, or the Antarctic Oscillation or the Antarctic Oscillation in the respective hemispheres.

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  5. Hi Erl ,
    Am semi retired now. Am still amazed by IPCC and radiative theory. Latest alarm is more shrill than ever.
    Did another quick read…quite good flow, easy going.
    Noted typos in chart headers 70,71. Suface = surface? Might be others when copy paste in use via excel.
    Hope all is well. If you have no objections i Will continue to promote these observations and concepts of yours.
    Macha

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  6. No objections at all Macha, its rare to see ones ideas endorsed. One of the things that amazed me, when I discovered it was the extent to which wind stress of the ocean surface drives global temperature by by changing the rate of overturning in the ocean. So simple but so influential. And nobody talks about it.

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