About Erl Happ

My academic interest at university was in Economics and Geography. I taught social sciences in high schools for ten years after 1967 while developing a stoneware pottery business on the side. As a potter I became familiar with the notion of heat work. I left teaching to plant vines and make wine while making a living as a full time potter. I had never intended to be a farmer but the environmental aspects of plant husbandry became a consuming interest in particular after the publication of John Gladstone’s ‘Viticulture and Environment’ the first thorough investigation of the factors responsible for grape and wine character that link to quality outcomes. Gladstones was a plant breeder, a gardener and a keen student of climate. He had to base his analysis on the use of daily temperature maxima and minima, a real handicap. He had no computer, no spreadsheet and no Google.

In the early 1990’s I set out to find a truly great site to plant vines. I needed to describe the ripening period thermal environment in great vine sites in the month prior to harvest. There is not much difference in the composition of green grapes but large differences in the composition of grapes at the point of harvest. I discovered that all great vine sites manage to avoid excessive heat in the ripening cycle. The clue is to choose a site where the ripening cycle naturally falls in autumn when the heat of summer is over. This involved a lot of work with temperature data taken at 20 minute intervals, that I collected with electronic loggers in small housings that I set up across the south west of the state of Western Australia. I located hourly data taken at airports close to overseas vine sites. In the process of processing the data I became familiar with the use of spreadsheets. A guy who was accustomed to work in the fields started to spend long hours in front of a computer screen.

In the vineyard it was plain that no two seasons were the same. Crop levels depended on leaf area at fruit set. Cool springs resulted in reduced crops. Heat in mid season advanced the harvest date so that sugar levels escalated before flavours were mature. Each grape variety has a different growing season heat requirement to bring fruit to maturity. In each instance these requirements can be reduced to numbers. The vine itself can be characterised in numbers.

Growing season temperatures are highly variable and seemed to be falling in this part of the world. That set me on a quest to work out where temperatures were increasing and by how much. At this point I became aware of the fact that warming rates are diverse. Parts of the Southern Hemisphere like Antarctica and Southern Chile had been cooling for fifty years or more. My curiosity was aroused.

I discovered reanalysis data at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl about 2006 which is about ten years after it became available. That opened up a world of data at my fingertips and I dug in becoming familiar with the temperature profile of the atmosphere cross the globe. The biggest swings in temperature were occurring in high latitudes and the swing in temperature was greater in the upper stratosphere  than anywhere else. Furthermore, it was very plain that swings in the lower stratosphere and   upper troposphere were much greater than at the surface. There was the answer: Cloud cover variation explained the flux in the temperature at the surface. Simple. That led me back to the poles to try and work out why temperature variation was so great in high latitudes. The data showed trends. The sort of trends that I discovered could not be generated from within the climate system.

We can learn a lot about the mechanics of the climate system just by looking at what has happened in the  atmosphere over time.  All one needs is a little curiosity, a facility with spreadsheets and a lot of determination. The mechanism was at first quite baffling. There is a strong hemispheric component to temperature change. It was plain that the variations that were occurring were unrelated to the steady increase in greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin.

The big breakthrough came when I started to look at the evolution of temperature by the month across the decades. That enables one to look at the broad swell of change and not be confused by the short term chop. Looking closely I discovered that the stratosphere is actually a very different  sort of place to the stratosphere that is  described in the literature. The clincher was the the discovery that the stratosphere indelibly stamps its mark on the surface temperature record. Variability in surface temperature is clearly coincidental with the time of the year, in fact the particular month where variability is most extreme in either the Arctic or the Antarctic.

Meanwhile a lot of great academic work had been done on the Annular modes of surface pressure variation. I could see that the task was to find out what was behind the variation in the annular modes and I already had a pretty good idea of what that might be.

The stratosphere that I describe in this work is ‘different’. Many people who are unfamiliar with the data will no doubt find it difficult to accept that the picture that I paint is accurate. That is the problem that we face when we get too far out in front of the crowd.

Many problems are solved by people beavering away alone without the support of colleagues and institutions  working in their own time with no prospect of reward other than to have ones ideas accepted as a fair description of reality. In many cases that too is denied. There are no conferences to attend in far away places. No correspondence with anyone sharing the same interest. It’s a lonely task but nevertheless worthwhile. The worth of it in this case comes back to economics and the maximization of human welfare….and that takes me back to my beginnings as an undergraduate.

Erl Happ


13 thoughts on “About Erl Happ

  1. Hi Earl
    Sir I have just come across your site. Like you I am a lone beaver, it is a great way to spend time.
    I think that your analysis in this area is fantastic, and yes you are right, sometimes the thinker outsider the scientific comunity makes the bg discoveries. We are both working in the same general area, but we have come to slightly different conclusions. I have a website http://www.blozonehole.com which describes many things but it is mainly about the loss of ozone over Antarctica but the same applies over the Arctic. The pressure of the stratosphere on the tropopause is the most powerful in our immediate atmosphere.
    In section 3 I have just put in a view of the real carbon cycle. And no, CO2 is not the bad guy. It is a pleasure reading your site, and keep it up. Let me know what you think of my site.
    Very kind regards

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Erl Happ, well that is fascinating,
    I admire your work. It’s amazing to see how what the mind of just one gifted and focused person can achieve! You are teasing out nature’s secrets. I find your observations to be quite logical and practical. Already your vision is influencing my thinking on the topic of climate. I’m starting to see the processes you describe in my mind’s eye. You may yet live to meet and greet companions in your field. But, they may all be your students. Like others that I’ve observed lately in my search for real knowledge, you are among the rare few dedicated to sincere discovery and development of real science in our age. This should be great fun.


    1. Hi Colin, Thanks for your generous words. The work does reveal the natural modes of climate change. That should be a real game changer. That it is not yet a game changer is of course a disappointment and one wonders whether my mode of expression is at fault. Perhaps the order of progression in the argument is the problem. Whatever it is that stands in the way of perception there is no better way of clarifying things than through question and answer. That helps both sides. So, please assist if you can. Every comment or question is absolutely welcome. Without engagement the cause is lost. What is needed is a wider understanding of the nature of the warming and cooling process as it impinges from one week to the next, from year to year and on longer time scales. Variability is endemic and more people need to understand why that is the case and what lies behind it.

      As for the danger to the planet from warming…….ridiculous. Its very much cooler than is desirable. Here I sit in what should be the warmest month of the year (at 33° south latitude) rugged up to the nth waiting for grapes to ripen, and its as cool as June, we have had two bouts of unseasonal rain and the crop is starting to rot. A few dry days at 33°C would be just great.


  3. Erl,
    Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I put a link to your site at a pay site I belong to that covers a broad range of topics. I hope it leads to a few more people checking out this extremely valuable research and theory you have developed. If I can think of any good questions going forward, I will certainly be happy to post them. I am still wrapping my head around what you have already provided.
    Thank you & good luck with the grapes this season.


  4. Hi Erl,
    Caught your ideas on a comment stream this week. I have just dipped my toes into your ideas and I am intrigued. I will be reading your ideas and references if you have them , and will drop in regular comments. Meanwhile I have some thoughts of my own on global climate hysteria. My 2 main bugbears are 1 the tax and economic implications of this stupidity and 2 climate sensitivity, and off and on I have blogged about this. My last piece on climate sensitivity seems to indicate (to me) a major shift in global atmospheric system properties between the last snowball earth event and the Precambrian explosion, which occurred at a time when O2 levels were rising and the ozone layer may have formed could there be a link
    look forward to corresponding Mike


    1. Hi Mike,
      Glad to have the opportunity to exchange ideas. I don’t buy this ‘forcings’ idea that maintains that downward radiation from long wave absorbers materially warms the atmosphere below. In the mid latitudes in winter the air above 250 hPa pressure level is warmer than in summer due to the increase in ozone in winter. This provides a natural test bed for the forcing idea. Looking at the temperature profiles there is no heating effect below as the air warms above. The heating effect peters out below 300hPa as ozone partial pressure drops away. Observation must inform theory.


    1. Dear William,
      Thanks for directing me to this work. I agree with Ferencs common sense observation that any additional input of heat to the system and the atmosphere in particular produces a reaction of additional evaporation or convection to restore the energy balance. Unfortunately there appears to be a consensus amongst the warmers, luke-warmers and many sceptics that the atmosphere must gain energy as the concentration of Co2 increases and that this results in a warmer surface, the chief question being how much. Very few educated men can conceive that the return of energy to the surface is impossible in an atmosphere that is both free to move and excruciatingly thin.

      In the case of a polar cyclone warming aloft (via ozone absorption) drives convection on a grand scale and indeed the Jet Streams. It is plain that surface temperature is very much a function of where the wind at the surface is coming from, either parts of the Earth where the air is warm and moist or other parts where the air is cold and dry.


  5. Erl
    I have very much enjoyed your blog.
    With WordPress suspending sites for challenging the Narrative, I hope you have off site backups!
    Will you publish a compilation of you blog?


    1. Hi Jim,
      Thanks for your words of approval. I set the blog up as a logically sequential narrative with the intention that it would read like a book. But of course it presents as last chapter first which is a definite handicap from the casual readers point of view. Coming in late, you don’t get the building blocks that came before. I don’t have the expertise to make the backup but Philip Mulholland did say at one point that he was doing just that.


  6. Hey Erl
    Have you considered joining the BOM WATCH Weather group I have set up on facebook ? It’s public so you can see what’s there without joining as well.


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