20 THE DISTRIBUTION OF ATMOSPHERIC MASS CHANGES IN A SYSTEMATIC FASHION OVER TIME

The long view of change in surface pressure (due to a  redistribution of atmospheric mass) can be derived only from the reanalysis record located here and reproduced below. We look at change by the decade.

Arctic pressure

In the Arctic surface pressure peaks in March, April and May with a secondary peak in October-November due to ozone heating in the southern hemisphere. The fact that the Arctic peak occurs in March rather than in December-January relates to the presence of the Eurasian land mass where very cold conditions attract atmospheric mass in December and January. By March, the  land mass warms slightly allowing a shift of atmospheric mass to the now relatively colder Arctic. However, surface pressure is most variable in January and February and this is when northern hemisphere surface temperature is most variable. I explore the nature of surface temperature variability here.

SLP Antarctic

Above we see that, at the heart of the Antarctic continent, surface pressure peaks in mid winter. Winter surface pressure has declined by about 10 hPa over the period of record reflecting a an increase in the ozone content of the air that drives enhanced polar cyclone activity. The consequence is a gradual shift of atmospheric mass to other parts of the globe and in particular to the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere where surface pressure has risen in direct response.

The westerly winds have strengthened over time as surface pressure falls in high latitudes and rises in mid latitudes.

Due to the increase in the strength of the westerly winds there has been a shift to higher latitudes of the band of cloud that is associated with frontal activity, consequent cooling in high southern latitudes in spring and early summer, an increase in Antarctic ice mass in winter and spring and change in rainfall patterns in the mid latitudes. West coast Mediterranean type climates that rely on winter rainfall have become more arid. However the increase in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere enables plants to thrive on less water and vegetative mass has actually increased despite the decline in rainfall as reported here and here. In some parts of Australia rainfall has increased.

SLP 60-70°S

On the margins of the Antarctic continent where the atmosphere is relatively rich in ozone, not so much in relation to the very high levels of ozone in the northern hemisphere but certainly by comparison with the air over the Antarctic continent, there is a marked trough in surface pressure in October when ozone partial pressure is at its seasonal maximum.

At 60-70° south surface pressure has declined by 10 hPa over the period of record. The secondary peak in January is due to ozone heating in the northern hemisphere.

As the atmosphere moves away from high latitudes there is an increase in atmospheric pressure in mid and low latitudes. This is accompanied by an increase in the temperature of tropical waters between 20° north and 20°south latitudes as seen in the diagram below. In assessing this relationship we should not forget that volcanic eruptions can throw dust into the stratosphere increasing the Earth’s albedo. Secondly, the oceans absorb energy and give it up slowly so that surface pressure leads as temperature increases and leads again in the decline phase.

The rate of transfer of energy by the atmosphere from low to high latitudes increases as the pressure differential between the equator and the poles increases.

The system gains energy as surface pressure increases via a reduction in albedo in the mid latitudes as described here.

The decline in surface temperature in the tropics after 1998, as surface pressure falls away suggests that the system does in fact gain and lose energy according to change in albedo that is causally related to the surface pressure dynamic.

 

SLP and SST

TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS 10hPa T Jan and Jul

In high latitudes the wide swing in the temperature of the air between summer and winter reflects the influence of the vortex of mesospheric air with substantially increased inflows in Antarctica, much more so than in the Arctic. This is the dominant influence on the ozone content and the temperature of the Antarctic stratosphere and indeed the ozone content of the southern stratosphere.

CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE ANTARCTIC STRATOSPHERE AS OZONE HAS PROLIFERATED

Temperature

The change in the temperature of the stratosphere over Antarctica since 1948 reflects a change in the partial pressure of ozone in the air necessarily involving a change in the distribution of ozone  at various pressure levels. Since ozone heats the air, it reduces its density and local contrasts in density result in ascent of the low density air, albeit mixed with air from the troposphere and from the mesosphere. The change in the mobility of the air changes the vertical distribution of ozone in the stratosphere. It is natural that the temperature of the air increases to a greater extent at the more elevated pressure levels because this is where ozone accumulates as a result of the process of uplift.

The explanation for ozone volatility given here is very different to the Brewer Dobson narrative that sees ozone being transported from the tropics to accumulate in high latitudes. In fact the circulation is in the reverse direction with whole of atmosphere ascent in high latitudes and descent in the mid latitudes.

The protective mechanism that allows the increase in ozone partial pressure in high latitudes in winter is the reduced incidence of destructive short wave radiation due to the longer atmospheric path as the sun sinks towards the horizon, disappearing entirely during the polar night. A secondary advantage that accrues in the winter hemisphere resides in the reduced uplift of NOx and water vapour from the lower atmosphere outside tropical latitudes.

The ozone hole in spring is a product of convection that brings destructive NOx into the lower stratosphere over the Antarctic continent where it is trapped by the still persisting descent of mesospheric air until November. The hole is not new. It was first encountered in 1956 when a Dobson Spectrometer was taken to the British base at Halley Bay in Antarctica but it was smaller at that time. Its enhancement is due to enhanced convection. Bear in mind the negative correlation between ozone partial pressure outside the ‘hole’ and inside the ‘hole’ indicating that the hole is a natural feature of the circulation rather than a product of ‘new chemistry’ that is a threat to the presence of ozone throughout the stratosphere. This dynamic and the very different situation in the Arctic will be covered with rigour in later chapters.

Below we see that the temperature of the air at 10 hPa vacillates most in October, the month when the ozone hole manifests in the lower stratosphere. This is also the month when surface pressure descends to its annual minimum at 60-70° south latitude due to the contrast in ozone partial pressure on either side of the chain of polar cyclones that is generated as a result of the density differential. The increase in the temperature of the polar cap in October represents ozone enhancement over time.  With enhanced partial pressure of ozone aloft  there will be a commensurate tendency for descent in the mid latitudes in October/November that is very much part of the ENSO dynamic. The trough in surface pressure at 60-70° south in October adds atmospheric mass to the mid latitudes expanding the area occupied by relatively cloud free high pressure cells. Together these influences add an El Nino bias to the climate system.

This increase in atmospheric ozone in springtime and lack of depletion at any other time of the year flies in the face  of the many ‘ozone at risk’ narratives that have been foisted on an unsuspecting and compliant public by attention seeking ‘scientists’ over the years.

cHANGE IN TEMP AT 10HpA BY MONTH

The diagram below records the degree of variability in 10 hPa temperature by latitude in the southern hemisphere over the period since 1948. The data represents the difference between the coolest and warmest month within the period.It is plain that extreme variability is associated with the months when the Antarctic ozone hole develops in the period from June through to December.

Variability in 10hPa temp by latitude

CHANGED TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE MID LATITUDES OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE INVOLVING A WARMER UPPER TROPOSPHERE

In the mid latitudes the strongest winds manifest between 300 hPa and 50 hPa where cyclones and anticyclones are characterised by marked differences in their ozone content. The increase in the temperature of the air in the mid latitudes at 200 hPa in 1976-78 is  associated with increased surface pressure. The increase in the temperature at 200 hPa relates to the increase in the temperature of the stratosphere generally.

25-35°S

SOURCES OF VARIABILITY IN THE PARTIAL PRESSURE OF OZONE IN THE STRATOSPHERE

1. The rate of influx of ozone deficient mesospheric air over the southern pole is surface pressure dependent and is the primary factor affecting the ozone status of the entire stratosphere. Stronger descent of mesospheric air is primarily a winter phenomenon. Even so, when surface pressure falls away at any time of the year  the mesospheric tongue retracts and the stratosphere is seen to warm as ozone rich air takes its place. The most  energetic changes are associated with the build up in ozone partial pressure from June through to October. Enhanced variability in spring is due to the relationship between ozone content of the atmospheric column and surface pressure. This relationship was well appreciated prior to the 1950’s.  It has been ignored since that time. Ozone acts as a multiplier and an accelerator for surface pressure change originating from external influences.

2. The degree of uplift of NOx from the troposphere  is plainly a potent influence on the ozone content of the stratosphere, especially in low latitudes but also over Antarctica in spring.

3.The manner of the accumulation of ozone in the northern hemisphere, and land/sea geography create a very different dynamic to that in the southern hemisphere. The singularly ozone rich air from the Pacific sector rises in the atmospheric column like a nuclear dust cloud, warming the stratosphere above 30 hPa. Changing pressure dynamics shift the high pressure cells that tend to locate over east Asia in early winter to the Arctic in spring, or alternately to the Scandinavian or the Hudson’s Bay/Greenland sector.  The mesospheric vortex brings cold air to the surface where it streams southwards, particularly in the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation associated with high surface pressure over the Arctic. In other words, the vortex in the northern hemisphere, unlike the southern hemisphere, has no fixed address. The Jet Stream wanders accordingly.

3. The composition of mesospheric air that is introduced into the winter stratosphere would be expected to vary with solar activity and in particular the partial pressure of the oxygen hungry products of the disassociation of nitrogen.

4. The density of mesospheric air and the upper atmosphere in general varies with the intensity of ionising short wave solar radiation probably affecting the effective rate of interaction between the mesosphere and the stratosphere.

5. The electromagnetic properties of the solar wind are known to impact the distribution of the atmosphere that has its own electric and magnetic field. Ozone is diatomic and will react to electromagnetic stimuli. The atmosphere over the pole is particularly susceptible to movement  when the stratosphere is warm because cosmic rays (charged particles)  penetrate to greater depth at that time. At times when the aurora  light up the heavens under the pressure of the solar wind,  the atmosphere is likely to be very responsive to electromagnetic stimuli.

6. Ionisation due to cosmic rays may be involved in the synthesis of ozone at the poles.

It is apparent that all these factors place conditions on the extent to which the sun drives shifts in atmospheric mass that are comprehensively amplified by the Earth system itself. The chief deterministic condition as to the scope of influence of external influences and the manner of their expression is the susceptibility of the winter hemisphere rather than the summer hemisphere due to ozone enhancement in winter.

A SUMMARY OF THE ORIGINS OF NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Ozone proliferates in the winter hemisphere, probably due to the manner in which the wave lengths that are responsible for the photolysis of ozone are attenuated as the angle of incidence of the sun moves away from the vertical, especially in winter.

The inflow of mesospheric air that depletes ozone varies with surface pressure and is strongest in winter. In winter, stronger contrast in air density drives the generation of polar cyclones and enhances the jet streams.

Polar cyclone activity drives variations in surface atmospheric pressure shifting mass to and from high latitudes towards the mid latitudes and across the hemispheres. This changes the planetary winds and affects cloud cover in zones of high surface pressure via the well observed relationship between surface temperature and geopotential height at 500 hPa.

Hypothetically the solar wind (geomagnetic activity) acts as a trigger for change and establishes an equilibrium about which the climate system oscillates. The climate system itself provides a strong amplifier to change in surface pressure initiated by an external source because any reduction in surface pressure in high latitudes promotes further loss of surface pressure per agency of ozone.

The signature of polar processes affecting the ozone content of the air is written in the surface temperature record. Temperature changes according to the origin of the air in a manner that is well documented as the Arctic and the North Atlantic Oscillations of the northern hemisphere. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is a surface pressure driven  phenomenon waxing and waning with the strength of the Trade Winds. It reflects change in the rate of mixing of very cold waters into the warm waters of the tropical Pacific and the rate at which warm waters from the tropics are driven towards higher latitudes. In other words, the temperature of the surface waters is by and large a result of change in the nature of the water that is present, much like the change that occurs when a person dons new garments. Things seem to change at the surface but underneath there is no change at all. But in the case of the Earth system there is actually a change in cloud cover outside the ENSO monitoring regions as surface pressure falls in high latitudes. It is predominantly in the mid latitudes over the oceans where high pressure cells naturally form that cloud cover is affected. Cloud cover falls away as atmospheric mass shifts to the mid latitudes strengthening the pressure differentials that drive the planetary winds.

The signature of natural climate change, the only game in town, is written into the surface temperature record. It is tied to shifts in atmospheric mass.

19 SHIFTS IN ATMOSPHERIC MASS IN RESPONSE TO POLAR CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Consider the evolution of surface pressure over the last 68 years as documented in the figures below. The change in surface pressure in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere from one decade to another is due to change in the ozone content of the air as it generates polar cyclone activity of varying intensity in the region of 60-70° south latitude.

July pressure

The activity of polar cyclones gives rise to the planetary low in surface pressure on the margins of Antarctica that we see below.

why

Even in the depths of northern winter when ozone partial pressure is elevated in the northern hemisphere there is no annular ring of low surface pressure in high northern latitudes. Although somewhat  depleted in extent and intensity that annular ring surrounding Antarctica is maintained throughout summer. Notice that in summer the zone of high surface pressure over the Antarctic continent is attenuated by comparison with the annual average. In the northern hemisphere ozone peaks and the associated surface pressure troughs are established over the high latitude Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans.SLP Jan

In January the southern hemisphere warms but to a much smaller extent than the northern hemisphere does in its summer. It’s mostly ocean and the sea readily absorbs energy. Terra firma tends to return energy to the atmosphere on a daily basis, forcing cloud loss and faster heating and that is why the northern hemisphere experiences the greater annual range of temperature as we see below.

NH and SH temp

The northwards transfer of atmospheric mass from the southern hemisphere is much less than the corresponding transfer from north to south in July.  But the strength of polar cyclone activity in the southern hemisphere is such as to fully compensate for the lack of heating of the southern atmosphere in summer driving down surface pressure  over a wide band of latitudes near the pole creating the imbalance in the distribution of atmospheric mass that is indicated below, particularly affecting high southern latitudes. Compare the January data below with the July data above to see the point of this discussion.

January pressure

It is plain that:

  1. The primary driver of the distribution of atmospheric mass globally is solar heating in summer. This shifts mass to the winter hemisphere. Massive heating of the northern hemisphere in northern summer due to the return of energy to the atmosphere as the abundant  land masses of the northern hemisphere heat up the atmosphere, reducing its density  thereby shifting atmospheric mass to the colder southern hemisphere and Antarctica in particular. It is at this time that the temperature of the globe peaks. It’s a full 4°C warmer in July than in January despite the fact that the Earth is further from the sun and solar radiation 6% truncated in the middle of the year. Global cloud cover is lowest in July due to the heating of the atmosphere accounting for the temperature maximum for the globe as a whole.
  2. The secondary and equally powerful driver of the distribution of atmospheric mass is the flux in ozone partial pressure at 60-70° south latitude. Correctly speaking, its the contrast in  air density between air over the Antarctic continent and that over the sea on the margins of the continent that is the main engine of change in the distribution of atmospheric mass because it determines the intensity of Polar Cyclones that form on the margins of Antarctica. These cyclones collectively determine the volume of the atmosphere that resides  between the pole and 50° south latitude.
  3. A tertiary driver, much smaller in its impact on the distribution of atmospheric mass is the flux in the ozone content of the air in and about the Arctic.

Plainly, to understand variability in surface pressure on an inter-annual and longer time scales a focus on atmospheric dynamics in high southern latitudes is required.

Until the advent of satellite technology change in mid to high southern latitudes remained undocumented. Since the publication of reanalysis data in 1996 it is possible to examine what has happened in that part of the global atmosphere.

I am very much aware that the connection between the evolution of the climate globally and the flux in southern hemisphere ozone is ‘new information’ for the reader and will be seen as a ‘crazy theory’, especially by those unfamiliar with atmospheric processes. Let me refer to two items of supporting research, both the product of sophisticated mathematical analysis. This is the classic ‘resort to authority’. I need you to take these matters seriously.

SUPPORTING RESEARCH

Geopotential height changes with the temperature of the air below a pressure level. Low heights indicate cold air below the stated pressure level related to cyclonic conditions and high heights warmer air that is associated with anticyclones. Change in geopotential height represents change in both surface pressure and the origin of the air.  Low heights at 100 hPa are associated with incursions of cold dense air of equatorial origin and high heights incursions of warm, low density air of polar origin. The temperature difference relates to the high tropopause near the equator where the temperature of the air is similar to that in the mesosphere. In contrast, the tropopause is much lower in higher latitudes and the air above it warmed by ozone.

If geopotential height changes systematically over time it signifies change in the character of the air at that particular latitude that entails change of temperature at the surface, in short ‘climate change’. A change in heights is also associated with a change in the source of the air that blows at a particular location. Another way of looking at this change in wind direction is as a change in the way the atmosphere transports energy from the tropics towards higher colder latitudes.

1.EVOLUTIVE LAWS

2.Dunkerton

The second abstract informs us that change in geopotential height originates in the stratosphere in high latitudes. The first abstract informs us that the primary and initiating mode of change is to be found in the Antarctic.

CONCLUSION

To understand variability in surface pressure (and surface temperature) on an inter-annual and longer time scales a focus on atmospheric dynamics in high southern latitudes is required. Specifically we need to monitor the ozone content of the air in the interaction zone between the troposphere and the stratosphere. This is not something that is realised by those who write UNIPCC reports. If it were, we would see much greater interest in the origin of polar cyclones and the ozone content of the air in high latitudes.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

There is a body of work that is being presented here, as a blog. Very unusual. It follows a carefully planned logical sequence. You can access all the chapters in this ‘treatise’, in reverse, at: https://reality348.wordpress.com

1 HOW DO WE KNOW THINGS? The virtue of taking in the broadest possible view using our own senses rather than relying on the opinions of others.

2 ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN YOUR OWN HABITAT Employing reanalysis data and a spreadsheet to take the long view

3 HOW THE EARTH WARMS AND COOLS-NATURALLY. A top down mode of causation is described. This mode of change is capable of explaining variations in both the short and long term in both directions, both warming and cooling. It can explain warming in one place and simultaneous cooling in another. In short it is very well adapted to explain the climate changes that we observe from daily through to centennial time scales ……. and to do so, exclusively and completely.

HERESY AND ORTHODOXY. Some impromptu observations on the inexplicable entanglement of science and politics. On exercising control, suppression of ideas, the nature of propaganda and ‘results oriented behaviour’ that is antagonistic to the interests of humanity in general.

IN THANKS TO STEPHEN WILDE. Some off the cuff comments on the nature of the atmosphere and climate science directed to a man who struggles earnestly in that same field of endeavour.

IT’S SIMPLE SIMON. A brief, impromptu exploration of the nature of the atmosphere.

4 THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE STRATOSPHERE. A re-examination of the nature of the troposphere and the stratosphere via a study of the lapse rate of temperature with elevation as it varies with latitude. If there is a problem in climate science it is in failing to appreciate that the zone of interaction between the stratosphere and the troposphere varies with latitude, descending strongly at high latitudes and is extensive, almost as thick as the troposphere proper. This zone of interaction involves marked differences in air density in the horizontal plane giving rise to strong winds, much stronger than at the surface. This is where air pressure and the ‘synoptic situation’ is determined. The notion of a ‘tropopause’ that marks a boundary between the ‘stratosphere’ and a ‘stratosphere’ that ‘exists at a particular elevation’ is profoundly, and dismayingly misleading.

5 THE ENIGMA OF THE COLD CORE POLAR CYCLONE. A cyclone cannot come into existence in the absence of a warm low density core. In short the polar cyclone is cold below and warm above. Ozone kick starts and then accelerates the circulation of the air in a fashion that is more vigorous than is possible anywhere else on the globe. An investigation of the agent that is responsible for natural climate change on all time scales……arguably the only form of climate change that is consistent with the surface temperature record.

6 THE POVERTY OF CLIMATOLOGY. There is a palpable disconnect between observation and theory. Surface temperature is linked to geopotential height increases that are common from the surface to the 200hPa level in turn linked to change in the ozone content of the air…….as yet unrealized in academic and meteorological circles. Does this represent simply a failure to think things through, or something more sinister? The signature of ozone variability is date stamped into the tropical sea surface temperature record.

7 TEMPERATURE EVOLVES DIFFERENTLY ACCORDING TO LATITUDE. A brief survey that establishes the diversity that exists in the nature of the way temperature changes at different latitudes. On the face it, completely inconsistent with greenhouse theory.

8 VOLATILITY IN TEMPERATURE. In George Bernard Shaw’s play ‘Pygmalion’ that gave rise to the Lerner and Loewe musical ‘My Fair Lady’, Henry Higgins declares that he can tell where a person comes from according to the accent in their speech. Equally, it is possible to detect the origin of temperature change, natural or otherwise, via a close study of the evolution of temperature over time. This is a critical chapter. It identifies the signature of the mode of natural climate change that is written into the temperature record. It points to origin and causation. Unfortunately, nobody  actually looks at the record to discover it.

9 MANKIND IN A CLOUD OF CONFUSION Coming to grips with the true nature of the atmosphere rather than the fairyland version promoted by IPCC climate science.

THE ARCTIC STRATOSPHERE SO COLD TODAY. An impromptu investigation of the forces active in the Arctic stratosphere.

10 MANKIND ENCOUNTERS THE STRATOSPHERE The evolution of the planetary winds and temperature at the surface of the Earth is intimately associated with flux in surface pressure wrought by ozone heating in high latitudes.

11 POPULATION, SCARCITY AND THE ORGANIZATION OF SOCIETY. What is the most desirable temperature regime for humanity? What would we prefer?

12 VARIATION IN ENERGY INPUT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. An investigation of the relationship between cloud cover and surface temperature

13 THE PROCESSES BEHIND FLUX IN CLOUD COVER. Change in cloud cover is manifestly a major mode of natural climate variation. This is basic stuff. Here is where the investigation should begin.

14 ORGANIC CLIMATE CHANGE. Focus on natural processes that account for surface temperature change. Heating of the vast land masses of the northern hemisphere in northern summer reduces global cloud cover and as a result the temperature of the Earth peaks in July when the Earth is furthest from the sun. In July solar radiation is 6% weaker than in January. In January the sun is overhead the most extensive stretch of the global oceans, the south Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic and the enormous Southern Ocean. At this time atmospheric albedo, via cloud cover, peaks. This has not always been the case and nor will it be the case in future.

15 SCIENCE VERSUS PROPAGANDA. If we want to understand the climate system we need to be concerned with both the input and the output side of the energy flows. The singular focus on the output side of the energy equation and the constant promotion of ‘greenhouse theory’ is the result of uni-dimensional thinking that is realms away from the real world. This does not represent rational problem solving behaviour. Some remarks on greenhouse theory and the inappropriate use of a single statistic to monitor a global average temperature.

16 ON BEING RELEVANT AND LOGICAL. When one looks at climate change by latitude there is very marked diversity in the warming/cooling according to the time of year. Here we look at climate change by the decade at different latitudes to escape the gyrations associated with short term oscillations. The interest in this chapter is to ascertain if there is a generalized warming that is like a groundswell, underpinning the whole. That is what would be expected under the greenhouse scenario. The upshot: If it’s there, it’s either insignificant or completely overwhelmed by other influences.

17 WHY IS THE STRATOSPHERE WARM This is a question of fundamental importance. Mainstream climate science says it’s due to the interception of short wave solar radiation. But this cannot explain the warming of ozone rich air in the polar atmosphere during the polar night when contrasting atmospheric density produces the most intense response in terms of wind strength. It can’t explain why the air above Antarctica is warmer than the icy surface below. It can’t explain the strengthened jet stream in winter. It’s inconsistent with the way that the stratosphere drives the generation of polar cyclones and produces the greatest fluctuations in surface temperature across the surface of the globe in the depth of winter.

18 THE OZONE PULSE SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND Traces the flux of ozone partial pressure by latitude across the annual cycle as it depends upon the uplift of NOx and water from the troposphere and the descent of ozone deficient air from the mesosphere. These inflows determine the ozone content and temperature of the stratosphere against a relatively stable background of short wave ionizing radiation responsible for photolysis and the creation of ozone. Change in surface pressure across the globe results via the variation in the intensity of polar cyclones in the winter hemisphere. These cyclones owe their warm cores to ozone. A broad interactive zone between 8 and 15 km of altitude exhibits extreme variations in air density giving rise to Jet Streams. Meteorologists trace the development of the weather that is so generated at the 250hPa pressure level. Identifies the origin of the Antarctic Ozone Hole.

19 SHIFTS IN ATMOSPHERIC MASS. Describes the origin of change in the planetary winds and cloud cover. Looks at the historical evolution of the distribution of atmospheric mass by the decade. Identifies the source of natural climate change as shifts in atmospheric mass consequent upon of change in the ozone content of the Antarctic stratosphere. Meshes nicely with recent observations as the the nature of the dominant modes of inter-annual climate variation that are called ‘annular modes’ and observations of where climate change is initiated….Antarctica.

18 THE OZONE PULSE, SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND

This chapter explores the seasonal cycle in the evolution of ozone and its influence on the temperature of the stratosphere and surface atmospheric pressure. Maps of the distribution of ozone have been accessed here. Alternatively, the average distribution of ozone can be inspected here. Animated maps showing the circulation of the atmosphere at the moment and in the past can be found here.

Below we see the evolution of ozone at 50 hPa on a ten day interval from September 2014 till March 22nd  2016.

oz1

oz 2

oz 3

Oz4

oz 5

Oz 6

oz 7

oz 8

oz9

oz10

oz 11

We can see that ozone partial pressure peaks in spring. At this time localized zones deficient in ozone appear in high latitudes that are more severe in the southern hemisphere than the northern hemisphere.

OZONE DISTRIBUTION TEMPERATURE AND WIND

The temperature of the air and the direction of the wind is closely tied to the distribution of ozone. This is apparent if we compare the next three maps. Over Antarctica the wind circulates in a clockwise direction at 70 hPa on 24th October 2015 . A band of rapidly circulating, ascending warm, ozone rich air surrounds a trough of relatively quiet descending, extremely cold air over the continent itself. In the mid latitudes the air is cold and relatively quiescent.

wIND 75HpA

THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF OZONE

Compare the diagram above with the diagram below that shows total column ozone in Dobson units on the same day, 24th October 2014. It is plain that the direction of the wind and the distribution of ozone is closely related.

24 Oct TC

The diagram below shows ozone at 100 hPa. Notice the very similar distribution of ozone to that seen in the diagram above.

24Oct 14 100hPa

The next two diagrams should be very closely compared. They show NOx (a destroyer of ozone) and ozone at 100 hPa.  Plainly, NOx  present in the troposphere attenuates the ozone content of the stratosphere over a wide band of latitudes about the equator. Water vapour is also involved. Chief zones of ascent are over the Amazon, the Congo and south east Asia.

Nox 24Oct 100hPa

oz 24 Oct 100hPa globe

Below we have Nox at 50hPa over Antarctica on 24th October.

24Oct 15 Nox

We see below that there is a close relationship between NOx at 50 hPa (above) and ozone at 50 hPa (below).

Oct 24 15  50hPa

Below we have ozone at 1 hPa indicating a wide band of partially depleted ozone over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean associated with the descent of air from the mesosphere. The extent of depletion of ozone at this altitude relates more to the very low ozone content of mesospheric air than the tiny amounts of NOx in mesospheric air. The ozone depletion is  nothing compared with than at 50 hPa and at 100 hPa. Depletion at the lower levels is apparently related to entrainment of NOx with ozone in the ascending circulation associated with polar cyclone activity.

The lesser depletion of ozone at 1 hPa that occurs due to the incursion of mesospheric air is a function of high atmospheric surface pressure in winter promoting a descending circulation. At 1 hPa we see that this conditions the ozone content of more than half the hemisphere through to latitude 30° south. The ozone depleted air at 1 hPa overlies  ozone rich air below giving rise to a cone shaped area of descent within a ring of ozone rich air.

24Oct 15 1hPa

It is apparent that the ascent of NOx from the troposphere plays a large part in determining the concentration of ozone in the lower stratosphere. NOx deplete ozone in the tropics and  also over Antarctica in spring.

Plainly it is the distribution of ozone in the stratosphere that determines the synoptic situation in high latitudes that will in turn influence the rate of ascent of NOx from the troposphere.

The movement of the air in high latitudes tends to preserve the distribution of ozone in the vertical plane , a product of uplift outside the vortex and descent within it.

CHANGE IN OZONE OVER TIME

Now lets compare the distribution of ozone at 50hPa on the 24th October in 2015, 2014 and 2013.

Global Oz 24Oct 2015

Global Oz 24 Oct 2014

Global 50hPa 24Oct 2013

It is apparent that the distribution and the density of ozone varies strongly from year to year.  In the main it is attenuated or enhanced simultaneously in both hemispheres. This is evidence of vigorous homogenisation in the horizontal domain. Perhaps there is a similar rate of depletion via the rate of influx of mesospheric air over the poles despite the differences in the seasons and surface pressure relations . There is a strong tendency for ozone density to be elevated in high latitudes across the Pacific Ocean in both hemispheres. The natural zone for uplift in winter is the ocean.  Cold land masses, especially in Siberia and East Asia, and outstandingly in the case of the Antarctic support the formation of high pressure cells where the air descends. These high pressure zones tend to be ozone deficient.

At 60-70° south ozone results in ascent from the surface to 10 hPa. Geostrophic balance (what goes up near the pole must be balanced by something coming down somewhere else) requires descent in high pressure cells bringing ozone into the troposphere where warming is associated with increased geopotential height and loss of cloud cover as described here.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OZONE AND SURFACE PRESSURE

In the 1920’s the inventor of the Dobson Spectrophotometer, Gordon Dobson noticed that total column ozone maps surface pressure. Low pressure cells generated in high latitudes have fewer molecules in the atmospheric column because the upper portion is ozone rich, warming the air due to the absorption of infra-red radiation from the Earth itself. The reduction in density aloft overcompensates for the coldness and density of the air at the surface resulting in a zone of low surface pressure. This is a high latitude phenomenon that accounts for the zone of very low surface pressure on the margins of Antarctica as seen below on 14th August 2015.

Nox ozone and SLP

To assist comparison white lines have been drawn on the margins of the area with elevated NOx at 50 hPa as seen top left. Those lines were then superimposed on the diagrams showing atmospheric pressure and the distribution of ozone. NOx is entrained with ozone and air from over the continent in an ascending circulation.

It is evident that the distribution of ozone is not co-extensive with the distribution of NOx. In fact NOx is uplifted with ozone but more on the inside of the circulation, closer to the pole than with the body of ozone rich air. That annular ring of NOx is co-extensive with a ring of depleted ozone values at 50 hPa over the continent where the air will be relatively cold and dense. In the conjunction of ozone rich low density air and ozone poor high density air we have the polar front that gives rise to the polar arm of the jet stream. An essential feature of the front is the uplift of erosive NOx to create an ozone hole in the lower stratosphere, starting in August, well before the return of the sun, a situation that is unique to Antarctica. Geography ensures that there is no continuous ring of low surface pressure related to ozone maxima surrounding the Arctic. Rather, the northern hemisphere exhibits elevated total column ozone over the north Pacific and North Atlantic, the former more dominant producing a very lopsided and discontinuous circulation.

IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ANALYSIS

Because the distribution of ozone  determines atmospheric pressure via the generation of polar cyclones it follows that change in the ozone content of the air changes the balance of surface pressure between high latitudes and the mid latitudes. This is the essence of the Arctic Oscillation and its more localized Western European  manifestation the North Atlantic Oscillation. A similar situation awaits discovery in the North Pacific.

The Arctic Oscillation is an influential factor determining whether the mid latitudes of East Asia, North America and Western Europe will experience warm moist westerlies from the tropics or cold dry easterlies of polar origin. In general when ozone varies in concentration near the poles it drives shifts in atmospheric mass that change the planetary winds. The planetary winds, together with cloud cover establish the temperature regime at the surface.

It follows that in order to understand surface climate and its evolution over time we need to understand the forces that condition the concentration and distribution of ozone in the global atmosphere. Those forces work their mischief in the most exaggerated fashion from mid winter to spring in high latitudes. The surface temperature record is indelibly stamped with extreme temperature variability in mid winter as described here. This then is the origin of the cycles of natural weather variation and climate change over decades and centuries. It is change by this cycle that has been wrongly attributed to anthropogenic influences.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

There is a body of work that is being presented here, as a blog. Very unusual. It follows a carefully planned logical sequence. You can access all the chapters in this ‘treatise’, in reverse, at: https://reality348.wordpress.com

1 HOW DO WE KNOW THINGS? The virtue of taking in the broadest possible view using our own senses rather than relying on the opinions of others.

2 ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN YOUR OWN HABITAT Employing reanalysis data and a spreadsheet to take the long view

3 HOW THE EARTH WARMS AND COOLS-NATURALLY. A top down mode of causation is described. This mode of change is capable of explaining variations in both the short and long term in both directions, both warming and cooling. It can explain warming in one place and simultaneous cooling in another. In short it is very well adapted to explain the climate changes that we observe from daily through to centennial time scales ……. and to do so, exclusively and completely.

HERESY AND ORTHODOXY. Some impromptu observations on the inexplicable entanglement of science and politics. On exercising control, suppression of ideas, the nature of propaganda and ‘results oriented behaviour’ that is antagonistic to the interests of humanity in general.

IN THANKS TO STEPHEN WILDE. Some off the cuff comments on the nature of the atmosphere and climate science directed to a man who struggles earnestly in that same field of endeavour.

IT’S SIMPLE SIMON. A brief, impromptu exploration of the nature of the atmosphere.

4 THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE STRATOSPHERE. A re-examination of the nature of the troposphere and the stratosphere via a study of the lapse rate of temperature with elevation as it varies with latitude. Lots of heresy here.

5 THE ENIGMA OF THE COLD CORE POLAR CYCLONE. A cyclone cannot come into existence in the absence of a warm low density core. In short the polar cyclone is cold below and warm above. Ozone kick starts and then accelerates the circulation of the air in a fashion that is more vigorous than is possible anywhere else on the globe. An investigation of the agent that is responsible for natural climate change on all time scales……arguably the only form of climate change that the surface temperature that is consistent with the surface temperature record.

6 THE POVERTY OF CLIMATOLOGY. There is a palpable disconnect between observation and theory. Surface temperature is linked to geopotential height increases that are common from the surface to the 200hPa level in turn linked to change in the ozone content of the air…….as yet unrealized in academic and meteorological circles. Does this represent simply a failure to think things through, or something more sinister? The signature of ozone variability is date stamped into the tropical sea surface temperature record.

7 TEMPERATURE EVOLVES DIFFERENTLY ACCORDING TO LATITUDE. A brief survey that establishes the diversity that exists in the nature of the way temperature changes at different latitudes. On the face it, completely inconsistent with greenhouse theory.

8 VIOLATILITY IN TEMPERATURE. In George Bernard Shaw’s play ‘Pygmalion’ that gave rise to the Lerner and Loewe musical ‘My Fair Lady’, Henry Higgins declares that he can tell where a person comes from according to the accent in their speech. Equally, it is possible to detect the origin of temperature change, natural or otherwise, via a close study of the evolution of temperature over time. This is a critical chapter. It identifies the signature of the mode of natural climate change that is written into the temperature record. It points to origin and causation. Unfortunately, nobody looks.

9 MANKIND IN A CLOUD OF CONFUSION Coming to grips with the true nature of the atmosphere rather than the fairyland version promoted by climate science.

THE ARCTIC STRATOSPHERE SO COLD TODAY. An impromptu investigation of the forces active in the Arctic stratosphere.

10 MANKIND ENCOUNTERS THE STRATOSPHERE The evolution of the planetary winds and temperature at the surface of the Earth is intimately associated with flux in surface pressure wrought by ozone heating in high latitudes.

11 POPULATION, SCARCITY AND THE ORGANIZATION OF SOCIETY. What is the most desirable temperature regime for humanity? What would we prefer?

12 VARIATION IN ENERGY INPUT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. An investigation of the relationship between cloud cover and surface temperature

13 THE PROCESSES BEHIND FLUX IN CLOUD COVER. Change in cloud cover is manifestly a major mode of natural climate variation. This is basic stuff. Here is where the investigation should begin.

14 ORGANIC CLIMATE CHANGE. Focus on natural processes that account for surface temperature change. Heating of the vast land masses of the northern hemisphere in northern summer reduces global cloud cover and as a result the temperature of the Earth peaks in July when the Earth is furthest from the sun. In July solar radiation is 6% weaker than in January. In January the sun is overhead the most extensive stretch of the global oceans, the south Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic and the enormous Southern Ocean. At this time atmospheric albedo, via cloud cover, peaks. This has not always been the case and nor will it be the case in future.

15 SCIENCE VERSUS PROPAGANDA. If we want to understand the climate system we need to be concerned with both the input and the output side of the energy flows. The singular focus on the output side of the energy equation and the constant promotion of ‘greenhouse theory’ is the result of uni-dimensional thinking that is realms away from the real world. This does not represent rational problem solving behaviour. Some remarks on greenhouse theory and the inappropriate use of a single statistic to monitor a global average temperature.

16 ON BEING RELEVANT AND LOGICAL. When one looks at climate change by latitude there is very marked diversity in the warming/cooling according to the time of year. Here we look at climate change by the decade at different latitudes to escape the gyrations associated with short term oscillations. The interest in this chapter is to ascertain if there is a generalized warming that is like a groundswell, underpinning the whole. That is what would be expected under the greenhouse scenario. The upshot: If it’s there, it’s either insignificant or completely overwhelmed by other influences.

17 WHY IS THE STRATOSPHERE WARM This is a question of fundamental importance. Mainstream climate science says it’s due to the interception of short wave solar radiation. But this cannot explain the warming of ozone rich air in the polar atmosphere during the polar night when contrasting atmospheric density produces the most intense response in terms of wind strength. It can’t explain why the air above Antarctica is warmer than the icy surface below. It can’t explain the strengthened jet stream in winter. It’s inconsistent with the way that the stratosphere drives the generation of polar cyclones and produces the greatest fluctuations in surface temperature across the surface of the globe in the depth of winter.

18 THE OZONE PULSE SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND Traces the flux of ozone partial pressure by latitude across the annual cycle as it depends upon the uplift of NOx and water from the troposphere and the descent of ozone deficient air from the mesosphere. These inflows determine the ozone content and temperature of the stratosphere against a relatively stable background of short wave ionizing radiation responsible for photolysis and the creation of ozone. Change in surface pressure across the globe results via the variation in the intensity of polar cyclones in the winter hemisphere. These cyclones owe their warm cores to ozone. A broad interactive zone between 8 and 15 km of altitude exhibits extreme variations in air density giving rise to Jet Streams. Meteorologists trace the development of the weather that is so generated at the 250hPa pressure level. Identifies the origin of the Antarctic Ozone Hole.

19 SHIFTS IN ATMOSPHERIC MASS. Describes the origin of change in the planetary winds and cloud cover. Looks at the historical evolution of the distribution of atmospheric mass by the decade. Identifies the source of natural climate change as shifts in atmospheric mass consequent upon of change in the ozone content of the Antarctic stratosphere.

17 WHY IS THE STRATOSPHERE WARM?

wave length spectrum

Energy arrives from the sun in the full gamut of wave lengths documented above. It is emitted by the Earth in a relatively narrow range in the infra-red between 1-125 um.

Ozone is made possible by the splitting of the oxygen atom by short wave radiation in the ultraviolet spectrum at wave lengths shorter than 250 nanometres, equivalent to  0.250 um. Once formed ozone can be broken down by wave lengths between 0.3 and 0.4 um in the ultraviolet.

Ozone is a greenhouse gas absorbing some of the very considerable sum of energy emitted by the Earth in the infra-red spectrum instantaneously transmitting that energy to adjacent molecules. But does this absorption in the infra-red contribute to the warmth of the stratosphere? You can survey the literature and find nary a reference to this phenomenon. The literature is dominated by the environmental concerns as to whether ozone is a significant pollutant in the troposphere and secondly, the degree to which its presence in the stratosphere enables the screening out of short wave energy that is harmful to plants and animals. The ‘ozone hole scare’ gave rise to the Montreal Protocol for the elimination of the use of certain gases including the commonly used ‘Freon’. Apart from that, the stratosphere is seen as largely irrelevant to the concerns of man, a place where the atmosphere is relatively static because ‘stratified’ with warmer air above colder air.

Now lets get to grips with the question posed in the heading:

WHY IS THE STRATOSPHERE WARM?

On a website prepared by the US Earth Sciences National Teachers association with the support of NASA we have this statement:

Temperatures rise with increasing altitude in the stratosphere. Ozone molecules in the stratosphere absorb ultraviolet radiation coming from the Sun. The energy from the UV radiation is transformed into heat. The heating is most intense near the top of the stratosphere, so that is where the stratosphere is warmest.

 From Wikipedia we have:

Within this layer, temperature increases as altitude increases (see temperature inversion); the top of the stratosphere has a temperature of about 270 K (−3°C or 26.6°F), just slightly below the freezing point of water.[3] The stratosphere is layered in temperature because ozone (O3) here absorbs high energy ultraviolet (UVB and UVC) radiation from the Sun and is broken down into the allotropes of atomic oxygen (O1) and common molecular oxygen (O2). The mid stratosphere has less UV light passing through it; O and O2 are able to combine, and this is where the majority of natural ozone is produced. It is when these two forms of oxygen recombine to form ozone that they release the heat found in the stratosphere. The lower stratosphere receives very low amounts of UVC; thus atomic oxygen is not found here and ozone is not formed (with heat as the by product).

So, the question arises: Is the energy absorbed at short wave lengths that is  involved in both the creation and destruction of ozone sufficient to explain the warmth of the stratosphere?

  • Well, for a start we can note that the stratosphere is warmest at 1 hPa and not at 30 hPa (the mid stratosphere) where the Wikipedia article suggests that the heat is released in the creation of the ozone molecule.
  • Secondly, we can note that the reversal of the lapse rate ( rate of temperature change with elevation) at the tropopause requires heating at and below that elevation to produce the reversal of the lapse rate.  There is no way that short wave radiation is responsible for heating the atmosphere at and below the level of the tropopause.

Its obvious therefore that the notion that the heat of the stratosphere is due to interception of short wave radiation or produced as a by product of the formation of ozone is not a very satisfying proposition.

The profile of Earth emitted outgoing long wave radiation as measured by satellites reveals a deficit at 9-10 um due to absorption of part of that energy by the atmosphere. That is outgoing infrared energy lost to ozone.  The deficit in outgoing radiation at 9-10 um represents a hole in the energy emitted that is close to the peak of the spectrum carrying the bulk of the energy emitted by the Earth. The energy at these wave lengths is abundant. That energy is absorbed by ozone in the troposphere (the troposphere contains about 10% of total ozone) and the stratosphere. There is absolutely no shortage of energy in the outgoing infra-red wavelengths to warm the stratosphere whereas the energy available in the incoming ultraviolet spectrum is but a tiny portion of that of solar origin.

The effort to map the distribution of ozone in the atmosphere by satellites can utilise the attenuation of radiation in the ultraviolet spectrum OR  the infra-red spectrum to infer the presence and concentration of ozone. The Toms satellite utilised the former while more recently the availability of Japanese developed instruments abroad the Gomes satellite enables the measurement of ozone utilising the attenuation of the infra-red spectrum.

The source of this information is the following expert review:

Retrieval article

Accessed here

The attenuation by ozone, water vapour and CO2  is graphed: attenuation

We see that the attenuation of the energy available in certain wave numbers between 975  and 1100 rises to as much as 50% of the total with considerable energy lost to the atmosphere measured in terms of watts per square centimetre.

DENSITY CONSIDERATIONS

There is another consideration that is very important. It is conveyed in the following statement that can be accessed in the original  at http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/files/pr24.pdf

IR absorbtion capacity of tropospheric ozone

This is a very important dynamic that influences how and where the stratosphere absorbs outgoing infra-red. Consider this:

  1. The amount of radiation absorbed by ozone is pressure dependent.The lower that ozone is present in the atmospheric column the greater its heating capacity.This is of particular interest given the fact that ozone is ubiquitous throughout the atmospheric column in high latitudes and richly so in winter. The closer the poles are approached, the greater is its heating power, helping to explain the velocity of the jet stream that develops at the conjunction of dense ozone deficient air of mesospheric origin and warmer air that is ozone rich on the equatorial side of the polar vortex.
  2. The greater opacity of ozone in the troposphere, to the point that the troposphere absorbs as much energy as the entire stratosphere goes a long way to explaining the attenuation of the lapse rate at very low altitudes as we approach the poles. See here for lapse rates.
  3. This phenomenon helps to explain the origin of the energy behind the generation of so called ‘cold core’ cyclones that are in reality cold core only below 500 hPa , the origin of the uplift being an extensive warm core of low density air in the atmosphere manifesting strongly above 500 hPa.

In fact the bulk of short wave ionising UVC radiation with wave lengths shorter than 240 nm is absorbed by nitrogen and oxygen above 1 hPa while only a relatively small portion remains to directly energise oxygen and ozone in the stratosphere.  It is reported that wave lengths shorter than 280 nm are required to ionize oxygen. The following table from here details the particular spectra absorbed at various elevations.

spectra absorbed

According to this table, it is the Herzberg continium between 200 and 242 nm (0.200 um to 0.242 um) that impacts oxygen in the stratosphere. whereas longer wave lengths up to 0.850 um impact ozone.

Accounts are conflicting. Fortunately, observation can settle the matter informing us as to the source of the warmth in the stratosphere.

OBSERVATION

mark of surface features

Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/time_plot/  (latest version).

At left we have a hovmoller diagram showing us the evolution of surface temperature from 2005 through till 2011 at 20-40° south latitude. On the right there is another hovmoller showing the evolution of temperature at 10hPa over the same time interval.  At 10 hPa the partial pressure of ozone in the air in relation to the other gases peaks. It peaks there in part because it is gathered together in the lower atmosphere in low pressure cells of its own creation and lifted to the top of the atmospheric column. Only 1% of the atmosphere lies above the 10 hPa pressure level. The maths is (10/1000)*100/1 = 1%

10 hPa represents an elevation of 30 km. For surface dwellers that’s just a five hour walk.  Fifteen minutes on the free-way. In terms of radiation from the Earth the transit from surface to 10 hPa takes no time at all.

There is plainly a variation in the temperature at 10 hPa associated with the season of the year. There is also an obvious warming above the  land masses that radiate strongly in summer.  Plainly, the temperature of the stratosphere at 10 hPa responds strongly to variations in emissions of long wave radiation from the Earth.

It apparent that the temperature of the stratosphere is in some part due to the emission of infra-red radiation from the Earth, an entirely different story to that pedalled by NASA, the teachers association and Wikipedia.

IMPLICATIONS

Wherever ozone travels, and regardless of its altitude, it becomes a potent means for local heating by day and the night, including the long polar night when ozone partial pressure increases due to the absence of photolysis. Ozone for its very existence depends primarily upon :

  • the photolysis of oxygen,
  • Diffusion and transport processes,
  • Chemical depletion of ozone by NOX, water and other agents,
  • The pressure of photolysis of ozone that varies with latitude and season. In winter, low sun angles reduce the pressure of photolysis allowing the seasonal increase in ozone partial pressure.  In the polar night there is zero photolysis of oxygen or ozone, neither creation nor destruction .

It is the rate of destruction by photolysis, chemical depletion and transport phenomena that are the critical factors determining ozone partial pressure in high latitudes. It is in the winter hemisphere that we see large variations in the temperature of the stratosphere, air density and consequently winds of extreme velocity. Surface pressures are driven to a planetary low on the margins of Antarctica where ozone partial pressure peaks. In high latitudes the only energy available to ozone in winter is long wave from the Earth itself. But this is more than adequate to drive polar cyclones and also, via a flux of pressure on all time scales, the distribution of atmospheric mass with its associated variations in weather and climate.

Moreover, cloud cover depends upon the flux in the area occupied by high pressure cells, and this determines the rate of accumulation of energy in the global oceans. What ascends to the limits of the atmospheric column gives rise to an equal and opposite descent. The diagram below that shows 200 hPa temperature varying much more widely than the temperature of the surface at 25°-35° south latitude amply reinforces this particular point. The temperature of the air at 200hPa responds to the presence of ozone. At this altitude  violent winds redistribute atmospheric constituents in the horizontal domain

25-35°S

MORE OBSERVATION

There is another way to look at this question of the source of energy that heats the stratosphere and that is in terms of the diurnal range between day (abundant short wave radiation) and night (no short wave radiation from the sun at all).

Siedel et al in a paper that you can access here investigated the diurnal range of temperature at different elevations from the surface through to 10 hPa. The diurnal range at 10 hpa was found to be about half the range of that at the surface and one fifth of the range of actual skin temperature. Plainly, the small diurnal response to the presence of sunlight points towards a large role for outgoing long wave radiation in determining the temperature of the stratosphere. Between day and night there is an ON/OFF relationship between the availability of short wave radiation from the sun. The emission of long wave radiation continues across the 24 hour interval. Siedel et al found a smaller diurnal range of temperature over the ocean than over the land and a larger range in the summer when the diurnal temperature variation at the surface is greater, than in the winter. The timing of the peak in the daily temperature becomes less defined and is more variable as altitude increases. This indicates that the circulation of ozone, as a source of local heating, is more important in determining atmospheric temperature than is the 24 hour rotation of the Earth on its axis and the resulting flux in the availability of short wave solar radiation. It confirms that the warmth of the stratosphere is primarily a direct response to the ability of ozone to intercept outgoing long wave radiation rather than direct heating in the process of photolysis or energy release via recombination phenomena.

IMPLICATIONS

Why worry about this you ask? The origin of the energy to heat the stratosphere is a matter of considerable importance because ozone heating in the winter hemisphere is the origin of the variation in surface weather and climate on all time scales. If one is not cognisant of the source of heating that gives rise to the stratosphere it is hard to conceive that the winter stratosphere can play a major role in the evolution of weather and climate. If one imagines that the temperature of the stratosphere is due to incoming short wave radiation alone then the source of the so called ‘coupling of the troposphere and the stratosphere’ becomes a baffling mystery. To be charitable,  the misunderstanding of atmospheric processes amongst those who write UNIPCC reports has its roots in misconceptions, a failure to observe and disinterest based upon unshakeable belief patterns. Science thrives on scepticism, curiosity, observation and checking. Dogma is the companion of superstition and fear. Dogma is also the source of inappropriate responses to natural phenomena. It has led to the burning of witches.  It has led to the demonization of carbon dioxide, a trace constituent in the atmosphere that represents plant food, a substance at the base of the food chain for which demand is so voracious that it has never been anything but a trace constituent of the atmosphere or the ocean. Today it stands at 400 parts per million in the atmosphere, the advance from 300 ppm leading already to a marked greening of semi arid climates. Give a plant more CO2 and it requires less water.

MORE OBSERVATION: OZONE HEATING AT 200 hPa IN WINTER

The supposed ‘greenhouse effect’ is theoretically due to a downward flow of energy from the atmosphere above to the atmosphere below via back radiation. It is conceived that it occurs in the troposphere where the air is cooler at elevation than it is below. The notion  that cooler air can heat warmer air is anti-intuitive but let’s accept for the sake of the argument that it might be possible. How much more influential would back radiation be if the air above were warmer than the air below? Intuitively, that proposition makes more sense.

Uniquely, unlike other greenhouse gases the distribution of ozone is not homogeneous. A tiny fraction of the 10-15 ppm that manifests at 30 hPa is obviously very effective in heating the atmosphere in both the troposphere and the stratosphere. Manifestly it results in the cessation of cooling with increasing altitude and a marked reduction in the lapse rates at pressure levels well below the level of the tropical tropopause in mid and high latitudes.

By virtue of its uneven distribution ozone offers us an opportunity to test the notion that gases that absorb radiation from the Earth produce an increase in the temperature of the atmosphere beneath the level where this gas absorbs energy. In that respect give your best attention to the graph below:

20-40S T profile 2014

We see that at 30-40° south latitude the temperature of the air above the 200 hPa level is warmer in winter than in summer. Of course the surface is colder in winter. And the incidence of ultraviolet radiation is less in winter. Plainly, the temperature response is due to the enhanced presence of ozone in the winter atmosphere and its ability to gather energy from the Earth itself via absorption of infrared. 

Somewhere between the ozone heated portion and the surface we should see the impact of a warmer upper atmosphere via the impact of back radiation. This is plainly not evident at 400 hPa and 500 hPa, let alone the surface. I know of no study that demonstrates that back radiation from the upper troposphere influences the temperature of the lower troposphere as the ozone bearing layers  warm in winter. If the supposed ‘greenhouse effect’ were operational we would should see an effect on the lapse rate below 500 hPa. No such effect is observed. Theory is one thing. Demonstration is another thing entirely. If the predicted effect is absent the theory is of no use to man or beast. One instance of failure of prediction based on theory should be enough.

NOTION OF A ‘TROPOPAUSE’

Observe that the pressure level where temperature stops descending with increased elevation at 20-40° south (the diagram above) is 100 hPa. So, above 100 hPa, in fact at 70 hPa the temperature is no different to 100 hPa. Early observers of the stratosphere, unable to observe the temperature above these levels conceived that the stratosphere was ‘isothermal’, with little or no change in temperature with increasing elevation.

If we conceive that the elevation where air temperature no longer falls with elevation marks the start of the stratosphere then 100 hPa is the location of the ‘tropopause’ and the stratosphere is held to start at that point. In consequence we include a region that shows a strong temperature response to the presence of ozone in that part of the atmosphere that we call ‘troposphere’. The Jet stream manifests between 300 hPa and 100 hPa. It is a creature of the variable proportion of ozone in the air between about 300hPa and 70hPa. Meteorologists recognise that the atmosphere beneath the jet stream conforms to the pattern of spatial variation  that manifests as waves in the jet stream. They speak of the jet stream ‘steering’ the pattern of high and low pressure cells that define surface weather conditions. By defining a portion of the ozonosphere as ‘troposphere’ climate theorists effectively rule out of contention any notion that ozone is important to surface climate. This is a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water. Silly boys.

It is the heating response to the presence of ozone between 300 hPa and 70 hPa that creates the density differences that give rise to the jet stream. Surface weather on all time scales is driven by the radiative response to ozone between these pressure intervals.

Our failure to understand the origins of surface weather and climate change is a product of this sort of conceptual confusion. Conceptual confusion arises when people are dogma bound.

CONCLUSION

Greenhouse theory and the concept of ‘radiative forcing’ that is at the core of IPCC reports is no better than armchair speculation uninformed by observation.

The countervailing influence to atmospheric radiation is convection. The heating of the polar troposphere/stratosphere due to enhanced ozone levels results in polar cyclones and result in the lowest surface pressures experienced at any latitude. Historically surface pressure has declined  at all latitudes south of 50° south as the temperature of the stratosphere has increased. A warmer stratosphere indicates increasing levels of ozone, in contrast to the ozone hole narrative that gave rise to the Montreal Protocol. This loss of pressure in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere shifts atmospheric mass to the remainder of the globe altering climates globally via change in cloud cover and the origin of surface air flows.

Can back radiation withstand the countervailing influence of convection in a rising column of air?  It’s plainly just not possible.

The atmosphere is never static. Only if it were static could back radiation effectively warm the atmosphere beneath the point where the warming occurs. For greenhouse theorists I see a little problem in logic and some additional problems in understanding the role and efficiency of convection as an agent of energy transfer.

THE MARK OF CLIMATE CHANGE

30hPa temperature

The 30 hPa level is in the heart of the stratosphere. It is the at the heart of the so called ‘ozone layer’. The diagram above indicates a change in the most influential element in the climate system that governs the evolution of the planetary winds. Why is this basic parameter unrecognized, languishing in obscurity and unrepresented in climate models?

There is a problem in conceptualisation that relates to an inability to connect the dynamics of jet stream establishment and behaviour with the changing concentration of ozone across the year, between years and over time with the pattern of wind and temperature at the surface of the Earth. At the root of this problem is the inability to see that ozone is a potent source of warming of the atmosphere via the absorption of the abundant energy emitted by the Earth itself, that the extent of the warming directly depends upon atmospheric density and is therefore greater at lower elevations than higher, and that ozone manifests at 300 hPa at 20-40° south latitude and lower again as latitude increases. Furthermore, the ozone content of the air depends upon sun angle (rate of photolysis), photolysis rates falling away quite dramatically in winter. Furthermore, atmospheric pressure so far increases at the pole in winter that air from the mesosphere is drawn into the stratosphere inside what is referred to the polar vortex. It is the dynamics so created that are responsible change in the ozone content of the air and with it surface weather.

Gordon Dobson observed back in the 1920’s that total column ozone maps surface pressure. Climate theory, unable to comprehend the importance of that observation is obsessed with unrealities. In common parlance, its off with the fairies.

Practically speaking, the energy generated by the sun is acquired, stored in some mediums better than others but it doesn’t hang about in the atmosphere. The atmosphere is a cooling medium. If the Earth slowed in its rotation so that it experienced the warming radiation from the sun on a 48 hour rather than a 24 hour cycle, then the night side would get very cold regardless of the composition of the atmosphere. If the oceans, a great store of energy, were to evaporate then the night side would become very cold. If one were to double the thickness of the atmosphere and double its greenhouse gas concentration it would not stop the night side cooling. Let’s face it, greenhouse theory is almost universally supported but it exists only in a thought bubble. There is yet to be a demonstration that so called greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin produce one iota of difference to surface temperature.

The concept of radiative forcing, the basis of UNIPPC climate science, is specious nonsense.

The temperature of the air at the surface is close to the temperature of the surface. If the air at the surface is moving, it is warmer or colder according to the place from which it comes. That is the way the world works.

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

There is a body of work that is being presented here, as a blog. Very unusual. It follows a carefully planned logical sequence. You can access all the chapters in this ‘treatise’, in reverse, at: https://reality348.wordpress.com

1 HOW DO WE KNOW THINGS? The virtue of taking in the broadest possible view using our own senses rather than relying on the opinions of others.

2 ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN YOUR OWN HABITAT Employing reanalysis data and a spreadsheet to take the long view

3 HOW THE EARTH WARMS AND COOLS-NATURALLY. A top down mode of causation is described. This mode of change is capable of explaining variations in both the short and long term in both directions, both warming and cooling. It can explain warming in one place and simultaneous cooling in another. In short it is very well adapted to explain the climate changes that we observe from daily through to centennial time scales ……. and to do so, exclusively and completely.

HERESY AND ORTHODOXY. Some impromptu observations on the inexplicable entanglement of science and politics. On exercising control, suppression of ideas, the nature of propaganda and ‘results oriented behaviour’ that is antagonistic to the interests of humanity in general.

IN THANKS TO STEPHEN WILDE. Some off the cuff comments on the nature of the atmosphere and climate science directed to a man who struggles earnestly in that same field of endeavour.

IT’S SIMPLE SIMON. A brief, impromptu exploration of the nature of the atmosphere.

4 THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE STRATOSPHERE. A re-examination of the nature of the troposphere and the stratosphere via a study of the lapse rate of temperature with elevation as it varies with latitude. Lots of heresy here.

5 THE ENIGMA OF THE COLD CORE POLAR CYCLONE. A cyclone cannot come into existence in the absence of a warm low density core. In short the polar cyclone is cold below and warm above. Ozone kick starts and then accelerates the circulation of the air in a fashion that is more vigorous than is possible anywhere else on the globe. An investigation of the agent that is responsible for natural climate change on all time scales……arguably the only form of climate change that the surface temperature that is consistent with the surface temperature record.

6 THE POVERTY OF CLIMATOLOGY. There is a palpable disconnect between observation and theory. Surface temperature is linked to geopotential height increases that are common from the surface to the 200hPa level in turn linked to change in the ozone content of the air…….as yet unrealized in academic and meteorological circles. Does this represent simply a failure to think things through, or something more sinister? The signature of ozone variability is date stamped into the tropical sea surface temperature record.

7 TEMPERATURE EVOLVES DIFFERENTLY ACCORDING TO LATITUDE. A brief survey that establishes the diversity that exists in the nature of the way temperature changes at different latitudes. On the face it, completely inconsistent with greenhouse theory.

8 VIOLATILITY IN TEMPERATURE. In George Bernard Shaw’s play ‘Pygmalion’ that gave rise to the Lerner and Loewe musical ‘My Fair Lady’, Henry Higgins declares that he can tell where a person comes from according to the accent in their speech. Equally, it is possible to detect the origin of temperature change, natural or otherwise, via a close study of the evolution of temperature over time. This is a critical chapter. It identifies the signature of the mode of natural climate change that is written into the temperature record. It points to origin and causation. Unfortunately, nobody looks.

9 MANKIND IN A CLOUD OF CONFUSION Coming to grips with the true nature of the atmosphere rather than the fairyland version promoted by climate science.

THE ARCTIC STRATOSPHERE SO COLD TODAY. An impromptu investigation of the forces active in the Arctic stratosphere.

10 MANKIND ENCOUNTERS THE STRATOSPHERE The evolution of the planetary winds and temperature at the surface of the Earth is intimately associated with flux in surface pressure wrought by ozone heating in high latitudes.

11 POPULATION, SCARCITY AND THE ORGANIZATION OF SOCIETY. What is the most desirable temperature regime for humanity? What would we prefer?

12 VARIATION IN ENERGY INPUT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. An investigation of the relationship between cloud cover and surface temperature

13 THE PROCESSES BEHIND FLUX IN CLOUD COVER. Change in cloud cover is manifestly a major mode of natural climate variation. This is basic stuff. Here is where the investigation should begin.

14 ORGANIC CLIMATE CHANGE. Focus on natural processes that account for surface temperature change. Heating of the vast land masses of the northern hemisphere in northern summer reduces global cloud cover and as a result the temperature of the Earth peaks in July when the Earth is furthest from the sun. In July solar radiation is 6% weaker than in January. In January the sun is overhead the most extensive stretch of the global oceans, the south Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic and the enormous Southern Ocean. At this time atmospheric albedo, via cloud cover, peaks. This has not always been the case and nor will it be the case in future.

15 SCIENCE VERSUS PROPAGANDA. If we want to understand the climate system we need to be concerned with both the input and the output side of the energy flows. The singular focus on the output side of the energy equation and the constant promotion of ‘greenhouse theory’ is the result of uni-dimensional thinking that is realms away from the real world. This does not represent rational problem solving behaviour. Some remarks on greenhouse theory and the inappropriate use of a single statistic to monitor a global average temperature.

16 ON BEING RELEVANT AND LOGICAL. When one looks at climate change by latitude there is very marked diversity in the warming/cooling according to the time of year. Here we look at climate change by the decade at different latitudes to escape the gyrations associated with short term oscillations. The interest in this chapter is to ascertain if there is a generalized warming that is like a groundswell, underpinning the whole. That is what would be expected under the greenhouse scenario. The upshot: If it’s there, it’s either insignificant or completely overwhelmed by other influences.

17 WHY IS THE STRATOSPHERE WARM This is a question of fundamental importance. Mainstream climate science says it’s due to the interception of short wave solar radiation. But this cannot explain the warming of ozone rich air in the polar atmosphere during the polar night when contrasting atmospheric density produces the most intense response in terms of wind strength. It can’t explain why the air above Antarctica is warmer than the icy surface below. It can’t explain the strengthened jet stream in winter. It’s inconsistent with the way that the stratosphere drives the generation of polar cyclones and produces the greatest fluctuations in surface temperature across the surface of the globe in the depth of winter.

18 THE OZONE PULSE SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND Traces the flux of ozone partial pressure by latitude across the annual cycle as it depends upon the uplift of NOx and water from the troposphere and the descent of ozone deficient air from the mesosphere. These inflows determine the ozone content and temperature of the stratosphere against a relatively stable background of short wave ionizing radiation responsible for photolysis and the creation of ozone. Change in surface pressure across the globe results via the variation in the intensity of polar cyclones in the winter hemisphere. These cyclones owe their warm cores to ozone. A broad interactive zone between 8 and 15 km of altitude exhibits extreme variations in air density giving rise to Jet Streams. Meteorologists trace the development of the weather that is so generated at the 250hPa pressure level.