38 UNCOMMON SENSE

Hemisphere surface temp
Fig. 1 Evolution of temperature at 1000 hPa in the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Earth. DATA SOURCE:

According to Mark Twain, when it comes to numbers there are Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.

Any form of manipulation to achieve simplification involves suppression of information.If one is to draw intelligent conclusions it is better to have all the original data. The less averaging the better.

Even the act of aggregating for a whole hemisphere, as is done in figure 1, is questionable. A sphere exhibits very different characteristics across its surface and so does  a half sphere. But, looked at in this way, its better to look at the two hemispheres seperately rather than together. The act of dividing the globe in half at the equator is a reasonable thing to do because the two are very different and we can learn in the process.

In figure 1  we have monthly data.  The peak in the cycle is the warmest month and the trough is the coolest month.Between the two are all the other months.

The two hemispheres are about as different as two planets. Temperature in the southern hemisphere (red line) exhibits a smaller annual range. Winter is marginally warmer than in the northern hemisphere. Summer is a lot cooler. In the Southern Hemisphere temperature is moderated by the extensive oceans.

In the Northern Hemisphere temperature is driven up due to the extensive areas of land. This  affects high more than low latitudes. The warming of the mid and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere in summer is due to atmospheric heating and loss of cloud cover. More solar radiation gets through the clouds to warm the surface. Paradoxically the Earth is furthest from the sun in July and accordingly solar radiation is 6% weaker by comparison with January. Straight away we see that atmospheric heating and cloud cover is the dominant influence on surface temperature while the degree of variation in surface very much depends on the ratio of sea to land. Who would have thought that? We have been told that it is the ‘greenhouse effect’ that makes surface temperatures what they are. In fact surface temperature depends on whether the Earths natural sunshade is in place or not and just how far a location is from the moderating influence of the sea. There is always less cloud over land than over the sea and particularly in those places where little rain falls.

In fact the ratio of land to water determines the extent of atmospheric warming and cloud cover on all time scales from daily through to annual. This is the strongest influence on surface temperature. Its due to the fact that the temperature of the air changes quickly and to a much greater extent than the amount of water vapour in the air that is required to form cloud. Water vapour content tends to be reduced by cold overnight temperatures giving us dew and cloud in the mornings and relatively clear sky at midday. The closer to the surface of the Earth, the more moisture can enter the atmosphere via evaporation from open water and plant transpiration. The more elevated the location, the colder is the air and , the lower is its moisture content. The higher the elevation, the less  the air is affected by warming and cooling at the surface. The higher the elevation the more the temperature of the air is determined by its ozone content.

When the ozone content of air increases and it warms via the interception of long wave radiation from the Earth, the response is measured as increased geopotential height. Surface temperature rises in proportion to geopotential height. That is due to the cloud cover response. Surface pressure, geopotential height and surface temperature all rise and fall together.This is the natural climate change dynamic driven by change in cloud cover.

Enough of these ramblings. Back to figure 1. The dotted lines in figure 1 are strictly horizontal. They have no slope. These lines assist the eye to  detect variations. There is a relatively small variability in temperature in the southern hemisphere in summer (upper limit of red series) over the last 69 years and no obvious trend. On this basis one can rule out carbon dioxide as a driver of surface temperature because the gas is well mixed. If there is a back radiation effect it needs to show its face here. Palpably it doesn’t. If the back radiation effect depends at all on enhancement by humid air and the presence of cloud we should see a continuous increase in the temperature of the air in the southern hemisphere from November through to March because this is the time of the year when cloud cover peaks. But, we see that there is no change in surface temperature in the warmest month of the year. However, we do see a gradual increase in coolest month temperature in the southern hemisphere from about 1970. This is the warming that needs to be explained.

Now, lets look at the northern hemisphere. Coolest month temperatures rise and fall over quite short time intervals. The 1970’s are the coolest decade in the northern hemisphere in terms of both the warmest summer month and the coolest winter month.   Northern Hemisphere temperature increased after 1998 in both coolest and warmest month and this too needs to be explained.

A QUESTION OF TIMING

The raw data doesn’t inform us as to whether the climate cooled or warmed in spring or autumn. Does that matter?  Come to think of it, if the global average rises due to an increase in temperature in the winter months is that really a problem. Would we not actually prefer warmer winters? Can we make rational decisions on the basis of a global average? Not really! Under a regime of dramatically increased summer temperatures with thousands dying of heat stroke and and dramatically reduced winter temperatures with thousands freezing to death, the average may be unchanged. We may think the planet is warming if we see a rising global average. But that could simply represent some warming in the coldest, abominably cold month so that month is slightly less abominably cold. Quoting the global average is the sort of thing that Mark Twain was complaining about.

Having dispensed with the CO2 furphy and the global average furphy we can now concentrate our on why the temperature changes as it does!

WHY HAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGED AS IT HAS

What stands out most in figure 1 is the warming that occurs in the southern hemisphere in winter (red line) starting in the 197o’s.

Given that the temperature of the air is a chilly 11°C in mid winter, this warming, and even more so, the warming of the northern hemisphere in winter, is unequivocally beneficial. This is a matter for congratulation rather than concern. We live in fortunate times. But it would be nice to know why this is happening because winter warming inflates the average for the globe as the whole and gives rise to a lot of hysterical  nonsense that is swallowed by an uncritical media that take the point of view that the science of climate is a matter for ‘scientists’ and the average global temperature  is Gods Word. These people have no idea what Mark Twain was talking about.

Politicians don’t read science. They read the daily papers. We get the blind leading the blind and a cabal of irresponsible scare mongers beating the drum and clashing the cymbals while snapping at the politicians heels demanding ‘clean energy’ and an end to ‘carbon pollution’. This is the modern ‘left’ in action. Its the Democratic Party in the US, the moneyed elite in the UK and an unholy alliance of Labour, The Greens and the soft underbelly of the Liberals in Australia. Even the Chinese, who in many ways are very practical people, seem to have fallen in love with this idea. If you muzzle the press, put the intellectuals in prison and rule with an iron fist you can do whatever you bloody well like. Can we pretend that what is happening in the West is somehow preferable? Can we point to a more rational and beneficial result from our ‘democratic process’? Cast not the first stone.

A PLAUSIBLE EXPLANATION

The warming of the northern hemisphere in both winter and summer starts in about 1998. Bear in mind that the warming in southern winter occurs at a time when global cloud cover plummets as the large land surfaces of the northern hemisphere heat the atmosphere. Is that warming  due to an increasing ozone content of the air and a consequent decline in cloud cover?

Figure 2 confirms a step up in temperature at the 10 hPa pressure level after 1976. This is predominantly a southern hemisphere phenomenon.  The step up occurs in winter.The consequent much enhanced feed of ozone into the  high pressure zones of descending air over the global oceans would reduce cloud cover. Under normal circumstances 90% of global cloud cover is to be found over the oceans and this is where high pressure cells form, especially in summer. When ozone rich air descends in a high pressure cell, the air warms (geopotential height increases) and this is always, without exception, associated with warming at the surface.So, the warming is due to loss of cloud cover.

Raw 10 hPa T poles
Fig. 2.  10 hPa temperature near the poles

Now, I want you to sanction something quite unorthodox and shocking.

In figure 2 the hand drawn line that links the high points in the summer maximum in the northern hemisphere is copied and applied to the northern minimum and to both the minimum and the maximum in the southern hemisphere. This unsophisticated ‘sleight of hand’ is performed as a ‘seeing aid’ to discern the points of difference. I guess I am just a frustrated artist and the mathematical exactitude of Excel is humanised by this process.I was once told by a plant breeder that if you cannot see the difference in plant performance by eye that difference is not worth measuring. It’s somehow comforting to realise that we don’t always need mathematical manipulations in order to get to the nub of the question.

Some points to note:

  1. Winter minimums are more variable than summer maximums and particularly so in the northern hemisphere.
  2. Whole of period change at 10 hPa  is greatest in the Antarctic. Those who make a close study of the matter have worked out that this is where natural climate change begins. Here is the documentation: Antarctica is the source of natural climate change.
  3. At the surface, the widest range in temperature between summer and winter is seen in the northern hemisphere but that is not the case at 10 hPa.  It is the southern hemisphere that exhibits the big variations.

Now in the last point we have an anachronism and a clue.  See Figure 3.

The wide range in temperature at 10 hPa in the southern hemisphere is due to the variable intake of mesospheric air over Antarctica in winter. This intake of cold air cools the upper stratosphere. It does not affect the temperature of the air at elevations below 300 hPa. The deepest cooling occurs at the 30 hPa pressure level in July.  Why is it so?

In winter surface pressure in the Antarctic region reaches a resounding planetary high. Nowhere else, anywhere on the globe, in any season of the year does surface pressure approach that achieved over Antarctica in winter. Air from the mesosphere has a low ozone content and it dilutes the ozone content of the atmosphere generally.The enhanced flow of mesospheric air into the southern hemisphere causes a generalised deficit in the ozone content of the air in the entire southern hemisphere. Alternatively, when the flow is choked off (surface pressure rises) there is an increase in the temperature of the air and its ozone content.

It is easy to see how the ozone content of the air can change over time via an alteration in the mesospheric flow.

Polar column temperatures

TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY

See figure 4 below. The short term variability that is seen in Arctic is much enhanced after February. It is initiated  by a fall in polar surface pressure signalled by a rise in the Arctic Oscillation Index (the two are inversely related). This increase in 10 hPa temperature  is likely reinforced in amplitude and duration by an increase in ozone partial pressure due to enhanced penetration of ionising cosmic rays as the stratosphere warms. The build up in the temperature over the polar cap is avalanche like in its suddenness. It represents the displacement of cold mesospheric air. The heating effect,  observed to last for weeks at a time, requires amplification to persist in this way. Otherwise it would be gone in ten days. Without amplification the descent of mesospheric air should re-establish in short order . Patently it does not.

T strat and AO 10hPa

Figure 4. Mean temperature at 10 hPa compared with the Arctic Oscillation Index.

In Fig. 2 we observe little difference between the hemispheres in the evolution of 10 hPa temperature in summer. There is a slight step up in 1976. And, the step up in summer is greater in the south than the north.The change in the ozone content of the atmosphere is global, affecting the entire year  and it is related to a fundamental change in the atmospheric circumstances over Antarctica, most pronounced in the winter season.

The ozone content of the air is rapidly propagated across the globe as we will see in figures 6 and 7 below. This testifies to the strength of horizontal winds in the stratosphere and most particularly in the area of overlap where stratosphere and troposphere occupy common ground.

So, the standout anomaly in figure 2 is the step change in 10 hPa temperature in southern winter after 1976. This step change in 10 hPa temperature is reflected  in surface pressure data in figure 5 below.

In fact this step change in 1976 is  reflected surface temperature data at every latitude across the entire globe as documented here.

SLP 75-90S

THE ACTIVE INGREDIENT:OZONE

As Gordon Dobson discovered in the 1920’s surface pressure  is a reflection of the ozone content of the air and vice versa. The fall in surface pressure at 75-90° south latitude documented in figure 5 is a direct consequence of the increase of the ozone content of the air. It is the ozone content of the air that affects its density, the weight of the entire column and hence surface pressure.

Wind strength in the atmosphere is intimately connected with the ozone content of the air. The air is relatively still near the surface of the planet and also at the highest elevations. Wind velocity is most enhanced in the overlap between the stratosphere and the troposphere between 300 hPa and 50 hPa where abrupt change in the height of the tropopause is associated with jet streams.

The 10 hPa level is virtually the top of the atmosphere because 99% of atmospheric mass is below that pressure level. The rapidly ascending circulation at the pole elevates ozone producing the greatest temperature response at the highest elevations as is evident in Fig 6. The strong temperature response at 10 hPa is due to convection of ozone rich air that increases ozone partial pressure at the highest elevations. That ozone mixes across the profile and affects the ozone content of the air in descending circulations in mid and low latitudes.

The pressure gradient (density differential) across the vortex in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere where polar cyclones are initiated determines the strength of convection.  The density differential is increased seasonally as the ozone hole is established below 50 hPa when NOx rich air from the upper troposphere is drawn into the circulation over the polar cap during the final warming of the stratosphere.

The incidence of very much higher temperature at the 10 hPa pressure level after 1978 represents a step change in the fundamental parameters of the climate system.  There is not one climate system here but many, as many as there are days in the year. Changing the ozone content of the air in high latitudes alters surface pressure differentials and therefore it changes the planetary winds.

Temperature
Fig. 6

A QUESTION OF TIMING

In figure 7 below we chart the evolution of 10 hPa temperature  in selected months from the mid latitudes to the southern pole.

10 hPa T SH
Figure 7 The evolution of air temperature at the 10 hPa pressure level in high latitudes

10 hPa temperature over the pole is greater at 80-90° latitude than at lower latitudes in summer. This is when mesospheric air is excluded and ozone rich air gently ascends to the top of the atmosphere. This phenomenon occurs over Antarctica between October and February.

10 hPa temperature over the southern pole is inferior to that at lower latitudes when mesospheric air is drawn into the circulation between March and October.

After 1978 we see a change in the temperature profile in all months. This is particularly so from June through to November. The transition month for the final warming prior to 1978 was November. After 1978  the transition occurs  in October. Taken all-together this data indicates  a fundamental change in atmospheric dynamics that inevitably produces an increase in surface pressure, geopotential height and surface temperature in mid and low latitudes.

This is the source of the warming in southern winter. It has nothing to do with the works of man.

The change in the temperature of the air at the 10 hPa pressure surface in the Arctic is a product of the combined influence of atmospheric dynamics at both poles. The Arctic is  independently influential.  Its calling card is extreme temperature variability in January and February. This can be seen in Figure 1 in the surface temperature in the coolest months.

Climate change is a matter of observation and common sense. There is not much of it about. When it comes to numbers there are Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics. Undoubtedly the leading offender is the global average of surface temperature as disseminated by GISS, The NOAA  and the Hadley Centre, all dedicated to the dissemination of information in support of the nefarious activities of Global Green and the UNIPCC.

 

36 THE JET STREAM

Pioneering work in establishing that the speed of the wind increased with elevation was  initiated in the first world war by people like Robert Millikan who worked for the US signal corps. He wrote

Within the past year approximately 5000 . . . [pilot balloon] observations have been taken by the Meteorological Service of the Signal Corps . . . the balloon is kept in sight up to distances as great as 60 miles and up to heights as great as 32,000 meters, or approximately 20 miles . . . observations show air currents increasing in intensity with increasing altitude and approaching the huge speed of 100 miles per hour. Such speeds are perhaps exceptional but not at all uncommon.

Gordon Dobson followed up this work in the 1920’s.

Wasaburo Ooishi in Japan amassed a total of 1288 observations between March 1923 and February 1925 and published a paper on the subject in Esperanto, to make it accessible to non-Japanese speakers.Here is Ooshi’s plot of wind speed as it varies with elevation  in the vicinity of his observatory at Tateno, twenty kilometres  north of Tokyo.

Wind speed Japan

The seasonal variation in the winds was analysed.

Upper air speed by season

Source: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-84-3-357

So, what drives the air so that its velocity increases with altitude? Why is the velocity greater in winter? Is it all driven by warming at the surface? Is it driven  by the release of latent heat of condensation. Or is it differences in air density that manifest above the cloud layer in that confusing space that is shared by  the troposphere and the stratosphere?

When surface pressure is high, there is little ozone in the upper air, the troposphere is 2-3 km higher. When surface pressure is lower there is more ozone in the upper air and the tropopause is lower. In high latitudes we have the side by side conjunction of these two species of air at The Polar Front. The classical illustration  is in the southern hemisphere where a chain of low pressure cells sometimes described as the Circumpolar Trough constitutes the mixing zone for these different species of air with high surface pressure, ozone deficient air over the continent and low surface pressure, ozone rich air on the equatorial side of the trough.

This conjunction is an untenable situation.  The stratospheric resolution of this unstable conjunction of two species of air is the polar vortex, a stream of ozone rich air circulating roughly about a particular line of latitude taking air to the top of the atmosphere. At 250 hPa this stream of high velocity air manifests as the jet stream. As the stream ascends further into the stratosphere its velocity increases. This is a winter phenomenon due to the descent of cold mesospheric air inside the stratospheric vortex at that time of the year.

The above is my view on the matter. Now lets look at the conventional meteorological  viewpoint.

The explanation of the nature of the jet streams that appears below was, until recently, provided by the American Meteorological Society at:  http://www.ametsoc.org/amsedu/proj_atm/modules/JetStreams.pdf

It is no longer available at that address.

In providing this paper I could not  resist highlighting  important statements in red, interspersing a few comments in blue (where the explanation can be improved) and I follow up with some comments at the end.

Introduction: Jet Streams

As World War II was approaching its conclusion, the United States introduced the first high-altitude bomber plane called the B-29. It could fly at altitudes well above 20,000 feet (6.1 kilometers). When the B-29s were being put into service from a Pacific island base, two air force meteorologists were assigned the task of producing a wind forecast for aircraft operations at such altitudes.

To make their prediction, the meteorologists used primarily surface observations and what is known in meteorology as the “thermal wind” relationship. In plain language, this relationship implies “that if you stand with your back to the wind, and the air is colder to the left and warmer to the right, the wind will get stronger on your back as you ascend in the atmosphere.” Using this relationship, the meteorologists then predicted a 168- knot wind from the west. Their commanding officer could not believe the estimate. However, on the next day, the B-29 pilots reported wind speeds of 170 knots from the west! The jet stream was discovered.

Actually atmospheric scientists had theorized the existence of jet streams at least as early as 1937. The bomber pilots just confirmed it. Now many television weathercasts mention the positions of jet streams and their impact on daily weather events.

Jet streams are relatively strong winds concentrated as narrow currents in the upper atmosphere. The polar-front jet stream is of special interest to meteorologists because of its association with the regions where warm and cold air masses come in contact and middle latitude storm systems evolve. The polar-front jet stream encircles the globe at altitudes between 6 and 8 miles (9 and 13 kilometers) above sea level in segments thousands of kilometers long, hundreds of kilometers wide, and several kilometers thick. It flows generally from west to east in great curving arcs. It is strongest in winter when core wind speeds are sometimes as high as 250 miles (400 kilometers) per hour.

Meteorologists study the polar-front jet stream as they forecast weather. Changes in it indicate changes in weather. The jet stream is also of importance to aviation, as the B- 29 pilots quickly found out. Westbound high-altitude flight routes are planned to avoid the jet-stream head winds. Eastbound flights welcome the time-saving tail winds. However, the jet stream produces strong wind shears in some locations because of large changes in wind speeds over short vertical and horizontal distances. The resulting air turbulence can be very hazardous to aircraft.

The polar-front jet stream’s location is one of the most influential factors on the daily weather pattern across the United States.

Characteristics of the Polar-Front Jet Stream

  1. Jet streams are relatively high speed west-to-east winds concentrated as narrow currents at altitudes of 6 to 9 miles (9 to 14 kilometers) above sea level. These meandering “rivers” of air can be traced around the globe in segments thousands of kilometers long, hundreds of kilometers wide and several kilometers thick.
  2. Two high-altitude jet streams affect the weather of middle latitudes; they are the subtropical jet stream and the polar-front jet stream.(Latter only present in winter)
  3. The subtropical jet stream is located between tropical and middle latitude atmospheric circulations. Although not clearly related to surface weather features, it sometimes reaches as far north as the southern United States. It is an important transporter of atmospheric moisture into storm systems.
  4. The polar-front jet stream is associated with the boundary between higher latitude cold and lower latitude warm air, called the polar front. Because of its link to surface weather systems and features, the polar-front jet stream is of special interest to weather forecasters.It defines the position of polar cyclones.
  5. The polar-front jet stream is embedded in the general upper-air circulation (including the stratosphere) in the middle latitudes where winds generally flow from west to east with broad north and south swings. As seen from above, these winds display a gigantic wavy pattern around the globe.
  6. The maximum wind speeds in the polar-front jet stream can reach speeds as high as 250 miles (400 kilometers) per hour.
  7. The average position of the polar-front jet stream changes seasonally. Its winter position tends to be at a lower altitude and at a lower latitude than during summer.
  8. Because north-south temperature contrasts are greater in winter than summer, the polar-front jet stream winds are faster in winter than in summer. (the presence of very cold mesospheric air above about 300 hPa, over the pole, increases density)
  9. Small segments of the polar-front jet stream where winds attain their highest speeds are known as jet streaks. Across the United States, one or two jet streaks are commonly present in the polar-front jet stream.

What Causes the Polar-Front Jet Stream?

  1. Fundamental to the formation of the polar-front jet stream is the physical property that warm air is less dense than cold air when both are at the same pressure. (Lets be very clear here: The term ‘pressure surface’. i.e. the 200 hPa pressure level is more appropriate than ‘pressure’. An alternative expression is: The geopotential height of a pressure surface is greater on the equatorial side of the polar front than the polar side OR  Air has lower density at  jet stream altitudes on the equatorial side of the polar front OR The tropopause does not exist on the polar side of the polar front and is very low on the equatorial side bringing warm ozone rich air in contact with very cold, dry, dense air of mesospheric origin.)
  2. 11.The polar-front represents the boundary between higher latitude cold air and lower latitude warm air. This temperature contrast extends from Earth’s surface up to the polar-front jet stream altitude.  (In fact  the temperature contrast is maintained to the top of the atmosphere but the mixed air interface  broadens with elevation .  At the surface the core of a polar cyclone is cold in relation to the surrounding air. At 250 hPa the core of a polar cyclone is warm in relation to the surrounding air and it is the contrast in density at this level that energises the wind. The Jet stream links polar cyclones giving rise at the 200 hPa level, but higher or lower depending on the season, to a relatively unified stream of rapidly rotating air that takes ozone rich air to the top of the atmosphere. It  might be compared to a chimney except that it is annular in shape with a hole of inactive air in the middle. That chimney is therefore like no other because it surrounds a core of cold mesospheric air. It is the conjunction of the core of relatively very cold air and the warmer and ozone rich air that surrounds it that gives rise to the most vigorous ascending circulation on the planet. This circulation ascends to the top of the atmosphere. It  originates in the vicinity of the tropopause on the equatorial side of the front and pulls in air from the troposphere. Cold air from the Antarctic side and warmer air from the tropical side is entrained in the ascending spirals that represent an amorphous ‘Front’, quite a different concept to what is referred to as a warm or cold front in the mid latitudes. It is from this zone of ascending  air that the global circulation is driven, not the tropics.)
  3. Air pressure is determined by the weight of overlying air. In the vicinity of the polar front, air pressure drops more rapidly with an increase in altitude in the more dense cold air than in the less dense warm air. ( very confusing statement. Reduced air density aloft applies not to the cold air from the mesosphere but the air that contains ozone on the tropical side of the front. This reduced density is due in part to the origin of the air (its from temperature regions)  and also to ozone heating of the air as it absorbs long wave radiation from the Earth and instantly and continually passes that energy on to adjacent molecules. The energy stream, unlike that from the sun, is available continuously day and night. The energy so acquired destabilises the atmosphere and this situation is resolved by movement.The polar front, that is properly considered as a stratospheric phenomenon because that is where the contrast manifests, is the strongest ascending air stream on the planet. Its importance in determining the distribution of atmospheric mass and therefore the planetary winds has yet to be realised by mainstream climate science.)
  4. The effect of temperature on air density results in air pressure at any given altitude being higher on the warm (equatorward) side of the polar front than on the cold (poleward) side. (This statement would be more meaningful if couched in terms of differences in air density in this form: The effect of temperature on air density results in air density at any given altitude being less on the warm, equator-ward side of the polar front than on the cold, pole-ward side.).
  5. When cold and warm air reside side by side, the higher the altitude the greater the pressure difference is between the cold and warm air at the same altitude. (This statement would be more meaningful if couched in terms of differences in air density as in:  At the polar front  the the temperature and density difference increases with altitude.).
  6. Across the polar front, at upper levels (including the jet stream altitude), horizontal pressure differences cause air to flow from the warm-air side of the front towards the cold-air side of the front. (Horrible. Rephrase as: Enduring horizontal density differences result in the ascent of air of lower density being driven upwards to the top of the atmosphere.)
  7. Once air is in motion, it is deflected by Earth’s rotation (called the Coriolis effect). Upper-level air flowing poleward from higher pressure towards lower pressure is deflected to the right in the Northern Hemisphere (or to the left in the Southern Hemisphere). The result is a jet stream flowing generally towards the east, parallel to, and above the polar front.(Deeply unsatisfying statement. The atmosphere super-rotates in the same direction as the Earth rotates on its axis but faster. The speed of its rotation increases in winter. The speed of rotation increases from the equator to the polar front. Its speed of rotation increases from the surface into the upper stratosphere but falls away at the highest elevations as the diameter of the cone of spinning air increases to take in the mid latitudes. There are discontinuities in this stream of ascending air due to locally enhanced ascent where sticky low pressure cells form on the lee of the continents where warm waters in the ocean promote the formation of low pressure cells of ascending ozone rich air. This results in pockets of ozone rich air at 1 hPa above these centres of local ascent. A collapse in the descent of atmospheric air over the pole (as in summer) allows these centres of local ascent to flood into the region of the polar cap or across it completely reversing the west to east flow so that it then flows weakly east to west, the summer pattern. This is perceived as a sudden stratospheric warming. It represents the replacement of one species of air with another.)

Relationships between the Polar-Front Jet Stream and Our Weather

  1. The polar-front jet stream exists where cold air and warm air masses are in contact. Hence, your weather is relatively cold when the polar-front jet stream is south of your location and relatively warm when the jet stream is north of your location.
  2. The polar-front jet stream can promote the development of storms. Storms are most likely to develop under a jet streak.
  3. As a component of the planetary-scale prevailing westerly circulation, the polar-front jet stream steers storms across the country. Hence, storms generally move from west to east.

Authors further remarks:  

There is a confusion in the AMS account  as to the location of warm and cold air and also due to the use of the term ‘pressure’ for air at altitude rather than ‘density’. There is also a loose use of the term ‘Polar Front’ that properly applies to the stratosphere rather than the troposphere where the front is actually a chain of massive polar cyclones that can occupy many parallels of latitude.  And most unfortunately there is a lack of appreciation of the origin of the phenomenon in the stratosphere where the energy to drive the circulation is acquired  in part via the agency of ozone.

The archetypal instance of this circulation lies not in the Arctic but the Antarctic where the patterns are much simpler than in the northern hemisphere and it is the latter circulation that I refer to in the comments below.

The annular nature of the zone of uplift that constitutes the polar arm of the jet stream  is due to the almost complete chain of polar cyclones that surround the Antarctic continent.  Ascent in this column of air that surrounds a tongue of mesospheric air  in the stratosphere is balanced by descent in the mid latitudes and also over the pole. Descent is a gentle affair because the areas available for descent are expansive by comparison with the zones of ascent. It is only by restricting the flow through a small orifice that one can increase the speed of the flow, a concept that many gardeners and fire-fighters will be familiar with.

The near surface feed that is the westerlies in the southern hemisphere is extremely vigorous reflecting a strong pressure differential between the rest of the globe and the circumpolar trough that extends from about 50° of latitude to about 70° of latitude. The air streams converge at higher latitudes speeding up as they do so, only by much increased wind speed at elevation.

The names that sailors used to describe the surface winds indicate the increase in wind speed at high latitudes. We have the Roaring Forties, The Furious Fifties and The Screaming Sixties. Convergence at high latitudes requires rapid modes of ascent (in this case to the top of the atmosphere) and an equally large return flow  at elevation but spread over a very wide surface area because it is returning to the wider circumference of the mid latitudes. How does the hypothetical Brewer Dobson circulation fit into this scenario: In short, it doesn’t. The flow to high latitudes is not in the stratosphere, it is in the troposphere and that air is cold, dense and ozone deficient.

The Brewer Dobson Circulation was proposed as a hypothesis, not an observation, in order to explain elevated ozone partial pressure and a descending tropopause in higher latitudes. Another hypothesis is that ozone persists due to reduced pressure of ionisation due to low sun angle. However ozone partial pressure continues to increase as the sun rises higher in the sky and the stratosphere begins to warm in spring suggesting that synthesis of ozone due to ionisation by cosmic rays is the most likely explanation for the elevated ozone content of the air in spring. In any case in my, admittedly limited, experience it is not possible for a flow of tepid water to produce a warm bath.

A positive pressure differential exists between the Rest of the World  and the area dominated by polar cyclones at 60-70° south. This gives rise to intermittent flows of warm moist air that move counter to the trade winds from strong centres of evaporation near the equator. This warm moist air has little ozone because it comes from below the elevated tropical tropopause. It is drawn into the polar circulation. It’s moisture content enhances the vorticity of polar cyclones but only on the external margins where small scale fronts form so that the core of a polar cyclone is dry. Tropical air from under the tropopause is  very cold, at a temperature of -80°C, as cold as air from the mesosphere. It has a very low ozone content and a high NOx content . At 100 to 50 hPa  tropical air is dense tending to settle rather than be drawn into ascent. At the time of the final warming of the stratosphere from August through to December this air enters the space formerly occupied by mesospheric air giving rise to a pronounced ‘ozone hole’ below 50 hPa. Other than during the period when this ozone hole manifests the air from the mesosphere, although relatively ozone deficient by comparison with the air on the other side of the vortex has more ozone due to ‘spill in’ mixing during descent.

The descent of mesospheric air over the pole in winter is relatively slow, tenuous and easily interrupted. It can be interrupted if  surface pressure falls away as it does in summer.  Surface pressure can fall away in winter if ozone is generated by cosmic ray activity or the electromagnetic activity of the solar wind slows the zonal wind. Hence the stratospheric sudden warming phenomenon where warm air replaces cold. 

Relatively low pressure is endemic in the Arctic inhibiting the entry of a tongue of mesospheric air. In Antarctica, by contrast the ice mound and the vigour of polar cyclone activity over the surrounding ocean ensures that there will always be descent in the mid latitudes and also over the Antarctic continent and the ice that prevails in winter. In winter, beginning in March and enduring till November there is to some extent a persistent tongue of mesospheric air that penetrates to the 300 hPa level.

There is no recognition in the (admittedly outdated) analysis from the American Meteorological society of the role of ozone in giving rise to  increasing contrasts in air density aloft. So the article, while it is rich in rules of thumb and observation of the nature of the Jet Stream actually fails to address the physical forces that are responsible for the Jet stream.

Without a realisation of the role of ozone in enhancing the density differences across the polar front that results in 1. polar cyclones and 2. shifts of atmospheric mass, the source of natural climate change must remain inexplicable. This is the current situation. The prevailing mindset is incapable or unwilling to conceive that the climate system may be subject to external influences. An item of faith is involved. Man is stained with original sin and atonement is required.  All interpretation is tuned to that end. We have been taken back to the middle ages. The only other interpretation is that men are weak and follow the money dished out by elites who have a warped view of nature and the place of humanity within nature.

Is ozone a greenhouse gas or is it not! Is it responsible for the warmth of the stratosphere? Does it collect energy and transmit that energy to adjacent molecules. If it does, then it must warm the air that accordingly loses density and that air is displaced at a rate that reflects the efficacy of the warming process. The observed phenomena reflect the mode of causation and amply indicates the energy that is required to drive the process. This process is continuous. It’s never exhausted. It requires continual input of energy to sustain it. That energy is applied to the atmosphere, not in low latitudes but in high latitudes per agency of ozone via its ability to pass on the energy that it acquires from the Earth itself.

Above 500 hPa the air circulates west to east in both hemispheres all year round. The stratosphere in the winter hemisphere is a very  vigorous medium. The source of its vigour relates to its unique atmospheric composition….the presence of ozone at a greater partial pressure than in summer time.  To account for this there is the relative absence of photolysis in winter and the possible involvement of cosmic rays in the generation of ozone in high latitudes. The increase in the density differential across the polar front in winter is in part due to the descent of cold mesospheric air over the polar cap. In spring the increase in the density differential is due to ozone synthesis and also the erosion of ozone below 50 hPa by NOx from the troposphere that is trapped in the lower atmosphere during the final warming of the stratosphere. Once accomplished the warming results in a complete reversal of rotation aloft.  At the time when the ozone hole appears surface pressure at 60-70° south latitude reaches its annual minimum. This is also the time of the year when a warming of the stratosphere will facilitate the penetration of cosmic rays. The solar cycle modulates the interplanetary environment in such a way as to preclude cosmic rays when solar activity is strong.

The failure of climate science to get to grips with the physics of the atmospheric circulation in high latitudes and in particular to realise that convection at the pole is driven from the upper atmosphere is a terminal fault that leaves the stage open for the AGW argument. Prevailing modes of thought lack focus on mixing processes that involve the entire atmospheric column that are initiated above 500 hPa in the winter season. At the root of the problem is an inability to observe, a fondness for dogma and a simple follow the leader mentality that reminds one of the Medieval Church. Today, the centres of scholarship are funded by governments and dependent on the opinions of the governing elites. Our elites are about as sensible as the Medieval Popes. Nobel winner Al Gore is the titular head of this church. Barack Obama is a very funny man, perhaps he is the Court Jester.

 We need to see atmospheric processes in terms of cause and effect based on an appreciation of gas behaviour. Otherwise we are limited to correlative prediction based on primitive rules of thumb like the following:

  1. If you stand with your back to the wind, and the air is colder to the left and warmer to the right, the wind will get stronger on your back as you ascend in the atmosphere
  2. Storms are most likely to develop under a jet streak.
  3. The polar-front jet stream steers storms across the country. Hence, storms generally move from west to east.

The poverty of climate science when it comes to understanding cause and effect is abundantly evident.

It has long been known that there is an association between the Arctic Oscillation Index and geomagnetic activity that is the product of the interaction of the solar wind with the atmosphere. This is a no-go area in climate science.  Why?

A comment about the composition of the journal ‘Science’that appeared here is apt:

Willis back in the early 80’s when I first began to take an interest in Global Warming. I depended on “Science” to give me a picture of the development of the research. In those days, about one in three articles were about natural causes of warming. It seemed at the time that the natural trend articles tended toward the more serious considerations. I thought, well science will sort it out and over the next few decades, and I can sit back and watch it unfold. Well, that was back when Philip Abelson was the Editor, he lost that position which, according to an interview I read at the time, he said was primarily because of his changing position on Global Warming. As the portrait in Wikipedia says “Some have claimed him to be an early skeptic of the case for global warming on the basis of a lead editorial in the magazine dated March 31, 1990 in which he wrote, “[I]f the global warming situation is analyzed applying the customary standards of scientific inquiry one must conclude that there has been more hype than solid fact.” ”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Abelson Subsequent to his replacement “Science” no longer entertained contrarian views. He was the first scientist I knew who lost his position because of the Climate agenda.

 

Readers interested in the history of how the global warming scare came to be will be interested in Bernie Lewin’s analysis here.

There is also an excellent study by Michael Hart in his book Hubris: ‘The troubling science, economics and politics of climate change’.

35 CAPE LEEUWIN AS A PROXY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Matthew Flinders named Cape Leeuwin after the first known ship to have visited the area, the Leeuwin (“Lioness”), a Dutch vessel that charted some of the coastline in 1622. There are three Capes in the southern hemisphere that offer a landfall to sailors who take advantage of the westerly winds at this latitude.

Cape Leeuwin is surrounded by blue/green water. Its a long stretch from Cape Town to the south west corner of Australia and an even longer stretch to Cape Horn. There is very little land between 30° south and 70° south latitude. The wind blows vigorously from the west. When you gaze out to sea and and find yourself reaching for more clothing it is because the air is very fresh, it has the same temperature as a vast stretch of ocean.

This Ocean  is the Earths battery. It is the chief and only means of storing energy from the sun. Whatever energy gets through the cloud layer penetrates deeply into the water and is given up slowly. The ocean warms and cools in the same way that it develops a long swell on its surface. When riding across the swell you rise up slowly and fall down just as slowly regardless of the surface chop. If we are looking for ocean, the location of the Earths energy store, you find it here. It is for this reason that Cape Leeuwin lighthouse is a good proxy for what is happening to the globe as a whole.

If a steady 33 mph (30 knots) wind blows for 24 hours over a fetch of 340 miles there is a 5% chance of encountering a single wave higher than 35 ft (11 m) among every 200 waves that pass in about 30 minutes. At the latitude of Cape Leeuwin a 50 knot wind is frequently encountered. No trees can grow in the vicinity of the lighthouse, just grass and low scrub. There is a layer of salt on everything.

If one looks for consistent high variability in the temperature of the surface of the sea it is here, in the southern hemisphere that one finds it, and at the equator. Here the variability is due to change in cloud cover and the direction of the wind. At the equator there is little cloud, little wind but a big variation in the in-feed of cold water from high latitudes according to the speed of the ocean circulation that is driven by wind and wave in high southern latitudes. It is in high southern latitudes that one finds the strongest wind belts on the planet, the roaring Forties, the Furious Fifties and the Screaming sixties.

Lighthouse

Lighthouse and houses

The lighthouse at Cape Leeuwin dates from 1910 and so does the temperature record. A sample from 1915 to 1921 is presented below. There is a tiny diurnal and annual range  but strong cycles of warming and cooling. The daily range increases strongly in summer when hot winds from the continent tend to arrive on a ten day cycle associated with the passage of anticyclones. In winter, these winds off the land can be cold suppressing the maximum and reducing the diurnal range. There is considerable variability in the daily minimums in winter within and between years. Winter is the time of the year when the Antarctic dynamic associated with the ozone content of the polar atmosphere causes marked swings in the relationship between surface pressure in the mid latitudes and the Antarctic circumpolar trough affecting the rate of flow of the westerlies and at times bringing cold southerly wind from Antarctica. Frontal rainfall falls in winter. Summers are arid as cyclones  track well south. Autumn is a season of quiet air, and infrequent light showers when farmers clear up land for pasture and burn the native vegetation to reduce the risk of fire. With solid winter rainfall and deep soils the countryside supports the growth of large eucalyptus trees that drop leaves and twigs in summer, a worrying fire hazard but an essential store of nutrient for soil microflora and plants, tending to keep the soil cool and moist in the dry summers experienced on the western sides of the continents at this latitude. Not far away is a very large desert.

Swinger
Fig 1

The red ellipses in figure 1 are intended to take your eye to features of interest, in particular the shape of the variability in the curve when temperature is least and the extreme variability in the daily maximum in the height of summer.

Plainly, the climate is like the road that curls through the Karri forest as seen below.

Boranup

There is a conclusion that can be drawn from the data presented below: Between 1910 and 1992 the minimum daily temperature does not change. Between 1992 and 2015 it warmed slightly then cooled again, then warmed for about six years and cooled for another six and looks as if it will get back to the 1910 average of about 14.3°C in a few years time.

Straight up this tells us that either, there is no greenhouse effect due to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere or that some local influence is maintaining the status quo as the rest of the globe is warming. I believe that there is no greenhouse effect. I do know that there is a local factor enabling this place to retain the status quo as surface temperature increases elsewhere. Until we understand the latter influences we will not be free of fear of the former.

Carbon dioxide is plant food and it is greening the Earth and in particular the arid zones because a plant that is not starving for carbon dioxide does not have to open its breathing apparatus (stomata) as wide as an opera singer and it loses less moisture to evaporation in the process of acquiring its plant food. For godssake, plants are at the base of the food chain. We have the wherewithal to feed double the current population of the globe and yet global economies are in complete disarray, interest rates are negative, governments are printing money, nobody wants to invest,  commodity markets are reeling and the whole system is teetering on the edge of an abyss.  Something is very wrong in the way that we are ordering society. That something has a lot to do with climate scares.

In any case 14°C is too cool to support plant life properly. Photosynthesis is optimal at 25°C. The globe is too cold for comfort, too cold to support photosynthesis over the bulk of its area for too long in the annual cycle.

If the ‘climate sceptics’ could all read from the same hymn book there would be a much better chance of dismissing ‘climate change hysteria’ that is resulting in gross manipulation of energy markets and making it impossible for poor people in cold climates to keep warm in winter while denying many countries who are yet to industrialise the cheap energy that is required to fuel machines. That we have ‘luke warmers’ who consider that man is having some effect on the climate but can’t work out just ‘how much’ influence he is having plays into the hands of the so called ‘consensus’ claimed by the alarmists. This is like reaching down with a machete and cutting your legs off just below the knees. There is no need. Luke warmers…… forget about the theory and OBSERVE.

1910-39 THIRTY YEARS OF COOLING IN THE DAILY MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM

Min 1910-39

Max 1910-39
Fig 2 1910-1930, Daily maximum and Minimum temperatures. Solid line shows trend. Dotted line is a true horizontal.

Above we see that the annual range varies a lot. This is because in the height of summer the ozone content of the air is much affected by what is happening in the Arctic stratosphere. Less ozone means cooler temperature aloft and more cloud. In the depth of winter the ozone content of the air and hence its temperature, cloud cover and the entire global circulation is driven predominantly from Antarctica. If ozone partial pressure falls temperatures at all levels in the atmosphere respond, first in the stratosphere and next in the overlapping region where ozone exists in the upper troposphere and finally at the surface.

Gordon Dobson  put the matter in perspective when he calculated that if the entire atmosphere had the same density that it exhibits at the surface it would have a sharp top at 8 kilometres in elevation. I would remind you that  you can walk 8 km in an hour and if you are a walker in the Olympics you could be there in half an hour.

1940-75 THIRTY YEARS OF COOLING DAILY MINIMUMS AND WARMING DAILY MAXIMUMS

Max 1940-1975

MIn 40-75
Fig. 3 1940-1975  Dotted line is the horizontal

There are two possible reasons why the daily maximum could rise while the daily minimums fall.

  1. Cloud cover could fall away in summer as surface pressure rises in the mid latitudes (along with upper air temperature and geopotential height) while the winds that drive the circumpolar current accelerate due to the enhanced difference in the surface pressure between the mid latitudes and the poles. This would bring colder water from the poles to the western coasts of the southern continents reducing the winter minimum temperature and in fact the summer minimum because when the sun is not shining it matters little whether there is cloud or not.
  2. If the wind blows more consistently from the continent in summer that wind will be hot. That could occur if the core of anticyclones tracked further south. When surface pressure rises in the mid latitudes that is what happens. It has been observed that the so called Hadley cell that takes in the convection in the tropics and the descending air in the mid latitudes  has expanded in recent times. Notice the large fluctuation in the maximum temperature at Cape Leeuwin in summer. Notice that the pattern of extremes is quite different from year to year. This is what determines the level of success I have ias a wine maker in making wine from the early ripening Pinot Noir, a grape that is negatively affected by heat in the last month of ripening. Our ‘Three Hills’ vineyard is just 12 km north of the the lighthouse.On a hot day in February the temperature can climb to 42°C and the relative humidity drops from 60% to 30%. In just one day of this sort of treatment the grapes shrivel and sugar concentration rockets. Fortunately even if February is warm, most of the reds ripen in March and are picked in April. The chance of hot days is less in March, unheard of in April.

Group 1940-75

Above, we give a closer inspection of the temperature profile in the summer of 1958-59. It would not be possible to ripen grapes in such a year. Notice the low variability in the daily data in summer and the relatively high variability in spring. Quite atypical. The diminished area under the summer season temperature curve represents a reduced capacity for plant work.

Global data for the latitude band 30-40° south latitude is not  necessarily representative  of local conditions at Cape Leeuwin but neither of the summers of 1956-7 or 59-60 look particularly auspicious when we  examine the  geopotential height data for these years. Heights are likely to vary less with latitude than is sea surface temperature.  Sea surface temperature depends on the circulation of the ocean that exhibits a south to north and north to south component  whereas the movement of the atmosphere has a gently north east to south east movement that comes pretty close to following lines of latitude.

SST and GPH

1975-1992 COOLING DAILY MAXIMUMS AND COOLING DAILY MINIMUMS

Max 1975-92

Min 75-92

In this graph we have fewer years and the pattern of heightened variability in mid-summer and mid-winter is  more apparent to the eye. Year to year variability comes from the same source as long term variability, the winter pole with peak variability in January-February emanating from the Arctic and July-August from the Antarctic. This is what is behind the variation in the seasons that keeps the farmers guessing.Its also what lies behind the long term variability, decadal and longer.

1992-2015 A STRONG WARMING CYCLE FOR THE MAXIMUM AND LESS SO FOR THE MINIMUM….OR IS IT?

 

Max 92-15

 

Min 75-92

Again the dotted line is the horizontal. Its easy to see that the minimum has increased at about half the rate of the maximum. There is nothing in the Earth system that takes away carbon dioxide overnight and puts it back in the daytime.

sculpt

Magnification drives home the point that variability in temperature is strongest in mid winter and mid summer. Extreme summer variability is due the fact that Cape Leeuwin occasionally experiences hot winds from the East in summer but it is also due to a flux in the ozone content of the air above and with it, cloud cover. Autumn is a time of low variability, balmy pleasant weather with light winds. The coldest months of winter are not always cold and nothing in the shape of the curves  in the bridging seasons provides any sort of an indication of what will happen in June, July, August and September. That depends on whats happening at the Antarctic circumpolar front.

Max 92-15.JPG  second

min 92-15.JPG second

Above is a different way of looking at the same data for the last 23 years. The trend curves are polynomials and they fit better the pattern exhibited by the extremes. The cooling trend of the last five years is given the weight it deserves. So far as the minimum is concerned we will soon be back at where we started in 1910.

THE VIRTUE OF DIS-AGGREGATION OF TEMPERATURE DATA

In the figure below we have data for the entire globe in the 30-40° south latitude band drawn from here.

30-40S glabally Feb and July
Fig 5.  Sea Surface Temperature 30-40° south. Average monthly data.

Average monthly data conceals the interesting complexities that are only revealed in daily maximums and minimums. Is the temperature increasing during the day or at night? We are at a loss to explain anything and we are at the mercy of witch doctors who rush in to provide us with a global average.

At Cape Leeuwin the  daily maximum is the chief driver of variations in the average temperature.  Without a shadow of a doubt part of that daytime summer warming is associated with loss of cloud as the increase in geopotential height and air temperature aloft suggests. Part will be due to a more easterly component in the air in the summer that brings warm air from the warming continent during the day. In any case, its readily apparent that the direction of the wind can be critical to surface temperature in coastal locations. That applies, not only in coastal locations, but everywhere, when the wind comes more consistently from either the equator or the pole. Change the wind and you change the local temperature. For this reason we need to get a grip on what changes the global circulation if we wish to understand surface temperature change. Just quietly, we also need to get a grip on the degree of mixing of cold deep water with warm surface water due to the currents and the waves. We are measuring the temperature of our patient not in his anus or his mouth or ear-hole but at the extremities.

Some of the change in temperature at Cape Leeuwin may well be due to a change in the amount of cold water from the Southern Ocean being driven up the coast due to an increase in the speed of the southern ocean circulation. In that case, the enhanced current will tend to limit the increase in the temperature of the air as measured at Cape Leeuwin. The enhanced pressure differential between the mid and high latitudes has undoubtedly enhanced the circumpolar circulation and assisted to stabilise the temperature at Cape Leeuwin, a built in countervailing force limiting the rate of temperature increase due to loss of cloud cover and a generally enhanced flow of warm air from the tropics as the Antarctic circumpolar trough in surface pressure has deepened.

 

33 SURFACE PRESSURE AND SUNSPOT CYCLES

SLP Jan
Fig. 1 Sea surface atmospheric pressure in January Source here

Even in the height of summer we see a marked trough in surface pressure on the margins of Antarctica, a product of polar cyclone activity driven by differences in the ozone content of the air and resulting differences in air density. Of course, the contrast  between the coldness of the ice bound continent and air from the mid latitudes also helps but at 200 hPa where these cyclones are generated the contrasts seen at the surface are less apparent. Surface contrasts probably assist in allowing the upper air troughs to propagate to the surface but where these contrasts don’t exist as in Arctic summer the propagation from upper air troughs to the surface to create a polar cyclone still occurs.

January pressure
Fig 2

In winter atmospheric pressure increases in the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere increasing the differential pressure between the mid latitudes and 60-70° south. Surface pressure over Antarctica hits a planetary maximum.

July pressure
Fig. 3  Source of data for FIgs 2 and 3  here:

Figures 2 and 3 show the swings in pressure that are part of the annual cycle and the evolution of pressure over time. Mainstream climate science (is there any other) has yet to realise the importance, let alone account for the cause of that massive deficit in surface pressure in the ocean about the margins of Antarctica. ‘Climate science’ is yet to become aware  of the cumulative effect of the decadal slips in surface pressure and is incapable of making the connection with the ‘annular modes phenomenon’ or working out that the atmosphere is driven from the poles rather than the equator, let alone working out the mechanisms involved.in change. Perhaps this is because the bulk of the land mass and the population of the globe together with most of the money is in the northern hemisphere and perhaps because the Earth is round the incumbents can not see over the equatorial horizon?

WHATS HAPPENING WITH SURFACE PRESSURE IN ANTARCTICA?

SLP 80-90S by month
Fig. 4 Source of data here.

In FIG 4 the year to year variability is perhaps due to change in the rate of intake of mesospheric air into the stratosphere as it modulates the partial pressure of ozone above the 300 hPa pressure level.  The change in surface pressure  is greatest in Antarctica but it  impacts the global atmosphere from pole to pole. The southern hemisphere vortex is most influential in determining the ozone content of the air between June and November and the northern vortex between November and April.

AO and AAO
Fig 5 Source of data here.

The Arctic Oscillation and the Antarctic Oscillation indices are proxies for surface pressure over the pole. As they fall, we know that surface pressure rises over the pole. We see in fig. 5 above that a rise in the AAO, signalling a fall in surface pressure in the Antarctic forces an increase in surface pressure in the Arctic between June and November whereas the weaker, poorly structured and migratory northern vortex seems to be incapable of the same performance when it is active in northern winter. Perhaps our measurement  settings are not capturing it adequately.

The replacement of low ozone content air with high ozone content air consequent on a stalling of the intake of mesospheric air brings an increase in the temperature of the stratosphere. The greater the elevation the greater is the increase in temperature, a natural product of the fact that ozone is the agent of convection and it is ozone rich air that is lifted to the limits of the atmosphere.   This amplified response is documented at 80-90° south latitude in figure 6 below.

T of Sth Strat at 80-90S Lat
Fig 6 Source of data here.

Plainly, the largest response to an increasing presence of ozone is at the highest elevations. There has been a fundamental change in the temperature profile over the polar cap with a massive shift  from 1976 to 1978. Note that prior to this date the temperature at 10 hPa was little different to that at 200 hPa. The 200 hPa level is Jet stream altitude.What happens at 200 hPa determines the synoptic situation and is reflected at lower altitudes albeit, softened and smoothed due to the fact that not all activity at 250 hPa propagates all the way to the surface. Upper level troughs are cyclones that are insufficiently strong to  propagate all the way to the surface.But the point to be aware of is that the temperature profile between 200 hPa and 10 hPa is fundamental to the dynamics determining the movement of the atmosphere over the pole that relates to the timing of the final warming.

VARIABILITY AT DIFFERENT TIMES OF THE YEAR

Another way to assess the impact on the Antarctic stratosphere is via a whole of period assessment of temperature variability at 10 hPa according to the month of the year. To examine this each months temperature is ordered from highest to lowest regardless of the year attached to the data and the difference between the highest and lowest is derived. That difference is graphed In Fig. 7

Variability in 10hPa temp by latitude
Fig 7 Source of data here.

It is plain from  Fig 7 that in the period between 1948 and 2015 temperature variability in high southern latitudes is greatest between July and October. At lower latitudes variability is strongest in June or at the start of the year. The skew towards October reflects the impact of a developing ozone hole below 50 hPa that is forced by the intake of troposphere air containing the ozone destroyer, NOx that is drawn in laterally between 100 hPa  and 50 hPa like a gradually tightening hangman’s noose that by September occupies the entire polar cap. Very cold air drawn in from the equatorial upper stratosphere is as cold as air from the mesosphere but it has more NOx, a catalyst for the destruction of ozone. This produces a severe contrast in ozone partial pressure and air density across the vortex, generates intense polar cyclone activity and drives surface pressure at 60-70° south to its annual minimum when the hole is fully established.

the ozone hole
Fig 8 Source of data here

Fig. 8 shows NOx at 50 hPa . By 15th October 2015 NOx has destroyed all ozone between 100 hPa and 50 hPa as we see at left in Fig 9 below in terms of the distribution of ozone. The light blue line defines the position of the vortex at 50 hPa.

12th Oct
Fig 9 Source of data at left and right 

In  Fig 9,  above at right, the dotted black line represents  ozone prior to the establishment of the hole while the purple line shows the temperature profile at that time. The red line shows that temperature increases as the hole establishes in stark contrast with the narrative of those who promote the story that man is responsible for the hole, a natural feature of the polar atmosphere in spring. Big Green prefers ‘unnatural’ and it would muddy the narrative if they had to admit that the hole is a natural consequence of atmospheric dynamics.

The contrast between cold air devoid of ozone and warm air from the mid latitudes that is rich in ozone at 60° south seen in figure 9 at left drives intense polar cyclone activity giving rise to a springtime minimum in surface atmospheric pressure as seen in figure 10. It was there in 1948 but more so in November. As surface pressure has fallen and ozone partial pressure has increased the minimum is a month earlier.

SLP 60-70°S
Fig. 10 Source of data here.

The winter maximum in surface pressure seen in Fig 10 now occurs earlier than it did in 1948.

Below we see that the climate shift of 1976-8 shows up in the comparison between sea surface temperature and the temperature of the air 200 hPa (where ozone warms the air) at 25-35° south latitude. This represents enhanced ozone propagating across the latitude bands at the time of the 1976-8 climate shift, a shift that simultaneously intensified the Aleutian low in the North Pacific, the dominant low pressure, ozone rich area in the northern hemisphere with knock on effects across the Pacific and North America.

25-35°S
Fig 10 Source of data here

The increase in the temperature at 200 hPa produces an increase in geopotential height. There is a well established relationship between GPH and surface temperature as acknowledged and demonstrated in the paragraph below from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under the heading ‘Temperatures’. What a title!

NOAA statement

In this way the ozone content of the atmosphere is linked to the synoptic situation, the generation of the jet stream, upper level troughs and polar cyclones. Polar cyclones are the most vigorous and influential elements in the circulation of the atmosphere and the prime determinant of the rate of energy transfer from torrid equatorial to frigid high latitudes because they determine the pressure gradient between the equator and the pole. The warm moist westerly winds emanating from tropical rain forests pass by the high pressure systems of the mid altitudes and drive pole-wards warming the surface and giving rise to precipitation in ‘fronts’.

If the jet stream loops towards the equator cold dry polar winds sweeps equator-wards bringing near freezing conditions to mid and even low latitudes. Orange Orchards in subtropical Florida can be frosted. Cold Antarctic Air has been known to sweep northwards into Brazil. If polar atmospheric pressure increases the mid latitudes cool due to this influence and also due to increased cloud cover under high pressure systems as geopotential heights fall away with the ozone content of the air.

The progressive loss of atmospheric mass in high southern latitudes over the last seventy years has added mass to the mid altitudes and enhanced the westerly wind flow while opening up the sky to admit more solar radiation thereby warming the oceans. The result has been a marked warming of the air in high southern latitudes centred on those months where this natural variability occurs, primarily between Jun and the ozone hole months of the Antarctic springtime. See Fig 11 below.

A peculiarity  in the Antarctic record is the cooling experienced in summer over the last seventy years. The Arctic forces atmospheric mass into  high southern latitudes as it becomes ozone-active in the months November through to February keeping the westerlies at bay in the summer season giving rise to cooling in high southern latitudes.

60-90S
Fig 11 Source of data here

THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE LAST SEVENTY YEARS AND ITS POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SUNSPOT CYCLE

SLP Antarctica
Fi 12 source of pressure data here

Sunspot numbers: Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels

 

The decline of surface pressure at 80-90° south latitude is punctuated with oscillations between regimes of relatively high surface pressure that are on average about 3.5 years apart with twenty such occurrences in the last sixty nine years and an equivalent number of periods of low surface pressure. The amplitude of the swings varies little within a solar cycle but secular change seems to occur between solar cycles. Change points seem to be associated with solar minimum.

If we now superimpose the data for surface pressure  in the high Arctic we have Fig. 13:

Polar SLP
Fig 13

Remarks:

  • Over time we see a shift of atmospheric mass from the poles and a gain of mass in the region of the East Asian High pressure zone. In fact atmospheric mass is likely to accrue everywhere except in high latitudes above 50° where polar cyclones, energised by increase in the partial pressure of ozone force pressure reductions. This process has fundamentally changed the parameters of the climate system. Changed, not ‘warped’ because warping suggests something unnatural and change is a natural and ongoing process. The change in 1976-8 involved a marked drop in Antarctic surface pressure that forced an increase in Arctic surface pressure regardless of the increase in global ozone at that time. The change in surface pressure has been continuous and  frequently abrupt and in particular either side of the relatively spotless cycle 20. There is a change of slope between 21 and 22 that is common to both hemispheres.
  • The evolution of surface pressure is characteristically different in different solar cycles
  • In solar cycle 18 Antarctic atmospheric pressure is superior to that in the Arctic. This superiority disappears in solar cycle 19, the strongest of recent times.
  • The very strong solar cycle 19 saw a steep fall in atmospheric pressure over Antarctica and also over East Asia but a compensating increase in pressure in the Arctic.
  •  The weak solar cycle 20 that nevertheless exhibited strong solar wind activity, saw a fall in atmospheric pressure at the poles that proceeded ‘hand in hand’  and a strong compensatory increase in surface pressure over the Eurasian continent.
  • The climate shift of 1976-8 involved a departure from the norm of the previous solar cycle 19 in that extreme falls in atmospheric pressure over Antarctica produced short term mirror image increases in Arctic surface pressure. Antarctic pressure still declined at much the same rate as it had over cycle 20 prior to the climate shift of 1976-8 .
  • Cycle 22 sees a recovery in Antarctic pressure and a compensatory collapse in Arctic pressure now establishing at the lowest level seen in the entire 69 year period bringing on the period of strong  advance  in Arctic temperature and loss of sea ice.
  • The onset of further declines in Antarctic pressure in cycle 23 allowed a recovery in Arctic pressure that, despite stepping to a higher level at the start of the cycle, declined over the period. Mirror image effects are again apparent.
  • Cycle 24 brings a brief recovery in Antarctic pressure at the expense of the Arctic where the peaks decline quickly as successive minimums in Antarctic  pressure (except the last) are higher than the previous minimum.
  •  After solar maximum in cycle 24 the decline in surface pressure in Antarctica is spectacular involving  greatly enhanced polar cyclone activity  perhaps due to enhanced ozone production due to  increased  cosmic ray activity as solar cycle 24  enters the decline phase. Reduced sunspot and flare activity  is responsible for a very compact atmosphere that may react more vigorously to the solar wind.
  • The peak in Eurasian surface pressure occurred about 1998 and a slow decline appears to have set in.

Generalising we can say that surface pressure and surface temperature appears to be linked to solar activity but in a fashion that is completely different to the narrative that insists that ‘total solar irradiance’ is the the only factor of importance. Rather, the driver of natural change in climate  works by changing the planetary winds and cloud cover via polar atmospheric dynamics that are closely linked to the flux in the ozone content of the air. Since 1978 the swings in surface pressure in Antarctica have been vigorous suggesting that a more compact atmosphere reacts more strongly to change in the solar wind and that cosmic rays that are enhanced in a regime of low solar activity may be more influential in ionising the polar atmosphere allowing the generation of ozone and especially so  during periods where the intake of mesospheric air is disrupted and the polar stratosphere warms. It is apparent that the ozone content of the air in high latitudes peaks in late winter/spring  even though the lifetime of ozone in the atmosphere is progressively shortened due to the increase in the incidence of destructive UVB radiation as the sun rises higher in the sky and the earths orbit takes it closer to the sun. Something has to account for that extra ozone. Climate science does not even pose the question, let alone answer it.

The ‘canary in the coalmine’ that indicates the change in the forces at work can be seen in extreme surface temperature variability in February and July. These months exhibit the greatest differences in terms of the whole of period  minimum and whole of period maximum in surface pressure as seen below. It is the months of January and July that exhibit the greatest variability in surface temperature. We see that in the sphere of natural climate change, surface pressure and surface temperature are inextricably linked. But, then again we always knew that by looking at the weather from week to week.

SLP varn Antarctica
Fig 14

The evolution of Antarctic surface pressure by the month is explored in the third diagram in this chapter. It appears that the system is at a turning point. Eight of the twelve months of the year, including the critical months under the control of the Antarctic and later the Arctic, from August through to February  show signs of a rise in surface atmospheric pressure. If this continues and the  ozone content of the global atmosphere continues to fall, and with it the temperature of the upper stratosphere we might sometime witness a reversal of the climate shift of 1976-8.

TEST QUESTIONS related to Fig.15: Have you understood this chapter?

Why is it that the Antarctic stratosphere above 150 hPa warms faster than the  atmosphere below 150 hPa in spring?

Why do we see the abrupt change in slope in the temperature of the air above 70 hPa in November?

Why does temperature between the surface  and 400 hPa decline at an invariable rate between April and August while the atmosphere above becomes increasingly colder?

What is the temperature at the tropopause in August and at what elevation is it located?

Query
Fig. 15

 

POSTSCRIPT:   For the convenience of the reader I list the chapters in this treatise in order to provide an idea of the scope of the work and the manner of its development. At the end is a list of chapters currently in preparation.

Reality

How the Earth warms and cools in the short term….200 years or so…the De Vries cycle

Links to chapters 1-38

  1. HOW DO WE KNOW THINGS Surface temperature is intimately tied to the global circulation of the air and the distribution of cloud.Ozone is inextricably linked to surface pressure and cloud. The key to unlocking the cause of climate change lies in observation.
  2. ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN YOUR OWN HABITAT On accessing and manipulating data to trace the way climate changes regionally. It is essential to understand the manner in which the globe warms and cools if one is to correctly diagnose the cause.
  3. HOW THE EARTH WARMS AND COOLS NATURALLY It is observed that the surface warms when geopotential height increases. This chapter answers the question why geopotential height increases.
  4. THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE STRATOSPHERE  Answers the question ‘at what elevation does the incidence of ozone cut in as a means for heating the atmosphere thereby creating what has been erroneously described the ‘stratosphere’. In winter its anything but stratified. It should be renamed ‘The Startosphere’.
  5. THE ENIGMA OF THE COLD CORE POLAR CYCLONE High latitude cyclones are the most vigorous circulations on the planet. At the surface they have a cold core. Their warm core is in the upper troposphere where the ozone impinges. No cyclone can form without a warm core.
  6. THE POVERTY OF CLIMATOLOGY Geopotential height at 200 and 500 hPa vary together in the extra-tropical latitudes. Furthermore, the increase in geopotential height that accompanies the surface pressure change is accompanied by a loss of cloud cover. All ultimately relate to the changing flux of ozone in the upper half of the atmospheric column in high latitudes.
  7. SURFACE TEMPERATURE EVOLVES DIFFERENTLY ACCORDING TO LATITUDE Surface temperature change is a two way process that occurs at particular times of the year.
  8. VOLATILITY IN TEMPERATURE. Temperature change is a winter phenomenon, increasing in amplitude towards the poles
  9. MANKIND IN A CLOUD OF CONFUSION Our understanding of the atmosphere is primitive.
  10. MANKIND ENCOUNTERS THE STRATOSPHERE. The origin of the stratosphere was a mystery back in 1890 and we still haven’t got it right.
  11. POPULATION, SCARCITY AND THE ORGANISATION OF SOCIETY. A dispassionate view of the Earth, considering its ability to promote plant life, sees the planet as distinctly cooler than is desirable.
  12. VARIATION IN ENERGY INPUT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. The atmosphere mediates the flow of solar energy to the surface of the planet via change in cloud cover. How could this be overlooked?
  13. THE PROCESSES BEHIND FLUX IN CLOUD COVER. A discussion of some of the intricacies involved in the relationship between surface pressure, cloud cover and the uptake of energy by the Earth system.
  14. ORGANIC CLIMATE CHANGE A discussion of the big picture that focuses on the natural sources of climate change.
  15. SCIENCE VERSUS PROPAGANDA The scare campaign about ‘global warming’ or ‘climate change’ is not based on science. Science demands observation and logic.  There is a ‘disconnect’ between observed change and the hypothesis put forward to explain it. One cannot ‘do science’ in the absence of accurate observation. What is being promoted as ‘Climate Science’ by the UNIPCC fails at the most basic level.
  16. ON BEING RELEVANT AND LOGICAL Climate scientists freely admit they do not know what lies behind surface temperature change that is natural in origin that expresses itself regionally and with large differences according to latitude i.e. the annular modes (Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations). In that circumstance it is nonsense to attribute change to the influence of man. There is an error in logic. But, its wilful.
  17. WHY IS THE STRATOSPHERE WARM Is the warmth of the stratosphere due to the interception of ultraviolet radiation or heating due to the interception of long wave radiation from the Earth? This issue is fundamental. Observation provides the answer.
  18. THE OZONE PULSE, SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND The direction and intensity of the wind and the distribution of ozone is closely related. This chapter gives an introduction to the nature and origin of the annular modes phenomenon.
  19. SHIFT IN ATMOSPHERIC MASS AS A RESULT OF POLAR CYCLONE ACTIVITY The distribution of ozone maps surface pressure. When the partial pressure of ozone builds pressure falls locally and is enhanced elsewhere.
  20. THE DISTRIBUTION OF ATMOSPHERIC MASS CHANGES IN A SYSTEMATIC FASHION OVER TIME Surface pressure changes on long time schedules. UNIPCC climate science is oblivious to these changes and the consequences attached to the change.
  21. THE WEATHER SPHERE-POWERING THE WINDS. The strongest winds can be found at the overlapping interface of the troposphere and the stratosphere and we haven’t yet worked out why or what it means when change occurs at that interface.
  22. ANTARCTICA: THE CIRCULATION OF THE AIR IN AUGUST An introduction to the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere in high latitudes
  23. THE DEARLY BELOVED ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE, A FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS. The celebrated ‘hole’ is actually a natural feature of the Antarctic atmosphere in spring and has always been so. It’s dictated by geography and process during the final warming.
  24. SPRINGTIME IN THE STRATOSPHERE More detail on the natural processes responsible for the ozone hole.
  25. WHERE IS OZONE? PART 1 IONISATION. The structure of the upper atmosphere is dictated by process. Hand waving is no substitute for observation.
  26. WHERE IS OZONE PART 2 EROSION More on the processes responsible for the structure of the atmosphere in high latitudes and in particular the manner in which tongues of air of tropical origin are drawn into the polar circulation.
  27. COSMIC RAYS, OZONE AND THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RESPONSE Observation and logic suggest that both the solar wind and cosmic rays are independently influential in determining the partial pressure of ozone in high latitudes. No other possibility is remotely plausible.
  28. MISREPRESENTING THE TRUTH Ozone, not UV radiation warms the upper air in winter
  29. THE PURPOSE OF SCIENTISTS History is re-interpreted continuously to suit the purposes of elites. Science is moulded in that same way by virtue of the fact that the elites hold the purse strings. All is ‘spin’.
  30. THE CLIMATE SHIFT OF 1976-1980. The nitty gritty of how climate changes together with the basics of a theory that can explain the natural modes of variation. Observation and theory brought together in a manner that stands the test of common sense.
  31. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HEMISPHERES: THE ORIGIN OF STRATOSPHERIC WARMINGS. Unfortunately climate science has a lot to learn. It has to begin with observation rather than mathematical abstractions. In fact, it’s best to keep the mathematicians at arms length.
  32. THE CLIMATE ENGINE THAT IS THE OZONOSPHERE . The atmosphere re-defined to take account of the critical processes that determine its movements and thereby the equator to pole temperature gradient. Takes a close look at processes inside and outside the winter time polar vortex. The system is the product of the distribution of ozone.
  33. SURFACE PRESSURE AND SUNSPOT CYCLES .  This chapter looks at the evolution of surface pressure and how it relates to solar activity. It explores the nature of the interaction between the atmosphere at the northern and southern poles.
  34. WEATHER ORIGINATES IN THE OZONOSPHERE Takes the focus to a regional and local perspective to answer the question as to why the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere have been colder in winter of 2016.
  35. JET STREAMS Compares and contrasts two quite different explanations for the strong winds that manifest where the troposphere and the stratosphere overlap.
  36. JET STREAMS AND CLIMATE CHANGE Looks at some great work that measures the ozone content of the air across the northern hemisphere and sets up a classification in a novel fashion, by zone of commonality rather than latitude. Relates the distribution of ozone to the occurrence of the subtropical and polar jet streams.  Zones of surprisingly uniform ozone content lie between the jets, and both pole-wards and equator-wards of the jets. Tropopause height steps down at the latitude of the jets creating marked contrasts in atmospheric density. This is a very useful and rock solid survey of great importance given the relationship between ozone and surface pressure.
  37. THE HISTORY OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN TERMS OF UPPER AIR TEMPERATURE An examination of temperature dynamics at the 10 hPa pressure surface over the poles.Critical to understanding the evolution of climate over the period of record.
  38. E.N.S.O. RE-INTERPRETED. The origin of the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon and why the matter is of little consequence.

 

Here is how would I explain the Earth’s natural modes of climate change to a child!

Let us consider the Earth as a car. We are at some latitude (like being in the back or the front seat of a car). Let’s imagine we have the heater in the front of the car and a vent over the back seat. You can open and close the vent and turn it to the front to scoop in air or to the back and suck air out of the car. So, the cold air from the vent can blow straight down the back of your neck or you can turn the vent around so that it sucks air out of the car so that the warm air from the engine travels to the back of the car.

Ozone heats the air in winter creating polar cyclones that lower surface pressure at the pole attracting a flow of air from the equator. More ozone = lower surface pressure in high latitudes = wind blows more often from the equator. Less ozone= higher surface pressure at the pole= wind from equator does not come. Instead, a cold wind comes from the pole similar to what would happen if you turned the vent in the car roof so it faced forwards.

The second way in which ozone changes surface temperature is by changing cloud cover. Because ozone is mainly present in the upper air and it ascends strongly at the poles in winter it has to come down somewhere else. Where it  descends it warms the air and evaporates cloud letting the sun shine through to be absorbed by the ocean that acts like a battery because it stores energy.  Full dense cloud  curtails solar radiation by as much as 90%.

The climate varies by warming and cooling  in winter. It is in winter that we see the big changes in 1. Polar surface pressure, 2. The ozone content of the air 3. The direction of the wind and hence  the temperature at the surface.

Change can be two way, both warming and cooling.

Ozone is inextricably linked to surface pressure. The key to unlocking the cause of climate change lies in working out what can change the ozone content of the air near the poles in winter.