Let me introduce the actors in this play.
Chilean High 20-40S. Latitude, 240-290E Longitude. Maritime Continent 0-10S. Latitude, 120-180 Longitude. Aleutian Low 45-60N. Latitude 180-210 E Longitude. The blue line in the graph registers surface pressure in the region of the Aleutian Low. The orange line traces the difference in surface pressure between the Chilean High and the Maritime continent that is a name for the thousands of islands and the surrounding waters where low pressure prevails to the north of the Australian continent.
The difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin is the basis of the Southern Oscillation Index. This is a good way of monitoring the movement of the centre of convection between Indonesia and the eastern Pacific Ocean. But this is really a local phenomenon that plays out along the equator. The bigger picture involves the atmospheric pressure differential that governs the rate of mixing of cold water from the south with the warm water of the tropics, the rate of flow of warm tropical waters to the sink in higher latitudes and the associated change of albedo in the mid latitudes.
The tendency for cold waters to upwell along the equator is tied to higher surface pressure in the South East Pacific and relatively low surface pressure in equatorial latitudes. A hydrostatic phenomenon involved. The warmth of the surface waters in the tropics is skin deep. The water is more salty due to evaporation making it denser and liable to sink depending on its temperature. Higher temperature makes this salty water buoyant. At depth. there is cold less salty water. When surface pressure rises in the mid latitudes it depresses the surface of the ocean locally, elevating it where surface pressure is low, tending to thin and spread the skin of warm water in the tropics. As the density gradient between cold and warm waters increases in the lateral domain, eddies occur with rotating circulations that lift cold waters to the surface.
The high pressure cell that I am calling the ‘Chilean High’ rotates anti-clockwise. The near surface airflow is constrained by the High Andes that has an average elevation of 4000 metres affecting 40% of the depth of the atmospheric column in terms of atmospheric mass. That gives rise to a push of cold water northwards along the east coast of South America where coastal locations have been cooling for more than 100 years. That cold water creates a fog that reflects sunlight. Cold water favours the descent of air in the core of the resident high pressure cells.
As the difference in sea level atmospheric pressure increases between the Chilean High, that is an extreme proxy for the mid latitude high pressure cells and the Maritime Continent, that is an extreme proxy for the equatorial latitudes, cold water upwells in the tropics and the anticlockwise circulation drives cold water northwards along the coast of South America. In this way, the La Nina condition that makes for good fishing in Chile and Peru is established. Upwelling of relatively salt free, less dense water, desalinated as it is frozen of the coast of Antarctica, transports nutrient-rich water into the photic zone, increasing phytoplankton growth and anchoveta production, more than 95% being used to produce fish meal. Peruvian anchoveta support approximately 50 percent of global fishmeal production and 33 percent of global fish oil production, making Peru the largest exporter worldwide. In 2009 Peru’s production plants in the coastal cities of Chimbote and Pisco, processed over 9000 metric tons of fish per hour and employed 47,000 workers. It’s not all good because La Nina also brings cold air from Antarctica, snow in the Andes giving rise to Influenzas and pneumonia. In the high Andes the suicide rate peaks in Spring as the Antarctic Ozone Hole migrates towards South America. This is not a new phenomenon. Its been like this for thousands of years. This is indeed a unique and challenging part of the globe.
To reiterate: When the Aleutian Low is abnormally active, (extreme low pressure) it shifts atmospheric mass from the northern Pacific Ocean to the Southern Pacific Ocean that increases pressure in the accommodating Chilean high. Then as the pressure differential across the Pacific increases it speeds the Trade winds, the condition we know as La Nina. Why doesn’t The Aleutian low shift that atmospheric mass to somewhere else in the Northern Hemisphere you might ask? Well, in winter the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere is resistant because its cold and dense. In summer, the Northern Hemisphere is a hothouse due to the heating of the atmosphere by the continents, the evaporation of cloud and the amount of long wave radiation that is streaming towards space, the entire atmosphere loaded with kinetic energy. The Ocean near Chile is very cold, the air above it is being chilled, fogs are endemic shielding the ocean from solar radiation and the area involved is very large. so the atmosphere in the southern Pacific is unusually accommodating. This type of behaviour in gases is described as Boyles Law. Air temperature is inversely related to pressure unless the air is constrained. Bear in mind that 90% of the atmosphere is constrained by gravity to below 10,000 metres in elevation but there is no lateral constraint, no wall at the equator to prevent the flow. The atmosphere is very thin. So, when heat is applied, its every molecule for himself in a constrained space and the kinetic energy carried by a molecule determines the space that it occupies while the number of molecules in the column determines local surface pressure.
In winter when the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere is cold and dense, be amazed that the Aleutian Low is shifting lots of atmospheric mass to the Southern Hemisphere and ask yourself this question. What is the energy source that drives this phenomenon? Something is delivering heat to the atmosphere, locally, that is enhancing kinetic energy of molecular movement. Its in the vicinity of the Aleutian Low and its not sunlight. The only other energy available is that being given off by the Earth itself. What is the ‘greenhouse absorber’ that is not uniformly distributed? We will return to that question later.
The last post on this blog asserted that as pressure falls below the 1948-2021 average in the region of the Aleutian Low the same thing happens in the Chilean High. This is an instance of behaviour that is different on a decadal or longer interval to that which applies on shorter, monthly time scales. On longer time scales, squeezing extra atmospheric mass into the Antarctic Trough may impair the vorticity of polar cyclones and their efficiency in shifting atmospheric mass to the Chilean High. So, on longer time scales, a fall in pressure near the Aleutians is associated with a fall in pressure over the Ocean adjacent to Chile and Peru. Over the last seventy years atmospheric pressure has fallen in both the Antarctic and the Arctic. Climate science does not acknowledge this. To do so would bruise the CO2 narrative by introducing the need to explain a source of natural variation. This is anathema. It’s poison.
But on a monthly basis the Aleutian Low shifts atmospheric mass to the Chilean High, as for instance in April, according to the chart below.
As the Northern Hemisphere moves towards summer, the signature of the Aleutian low shrinks and the high pressure zone that lives in winter, in its dwarfed state, near the Gulf of California expands towards the Aleutians. Nevertheless, via the graph, we see that the interaction and the relationship persists.
In June the Aleutian Low has disappeared, but on the left we see that, somehow, its still up to its usual tricks.
The invisible Aleutian Low is still active in determining the gradient in surface pressure across the South Pacific in August.
In October, the Aleutian Low shows up again in the surface pressure data. The polynomial curve indicates the manner in which the relationship between these variables evolves over time at least in October. Notice the big bump in the 1970s and the crossing of the curves that occurs after the bump. That’s a signature of the 1978 Climate Shift that ended a two decade cooling trend in the northern hemisphere and started the warming trend that delivered an immediate 2°C increase in the temperature of tropical waters and a 1°C increase in the temperature of the entire northern hemisphere, but gradually, over the last seventy years. Warming occurred in every month. This, in contrast to no warming in the Southern Hemisphere in December through to March, the warmest time of the year, when global albedo peaks with the winter chilling of the Northern Hemisphere.
By December, the Aleutian Low is in full flight again, with massive swings in surface pressure giving rise to mirror image swings in the pressure differential across the Pacific. We see in the map that the area affected by high surface pressure in the Chilean High is somewhat reduced by comparison with October. But, the Maritime continent sees a large expansion of the area affected by low surface pressure. So, the pressure gradient across the Pacific is enhanced.
Just incidentally, notice that the Antarctic Trough is active all year round, deepening in surface pressure in the winter. The Antarctic Continent pressure regime is deepest in August.
Summarizing, the pressure gradient between the Chilean High and the Maritime continent is slight in Southern Hemisphere winter but, significantly, between April and August it frequently dips into negative territory implying a reversal of the Trade winds. So, its plain that even in the depth of winter the invisible Aleutian Low is pushing and prodding. That’s why ENSO tends to manifest in late winter, build during the spring, and see the largest swings in the gradient of surface pressure across the Pacific between December and March.
The gradient of surface pressure across the Pacific is always, Summer, Autumn, Winter and Spring at the mercy of the Aleutian Low.
The Aleutian Low has this ‘Mother in Law’ role, an invisible hand dictating the play across the Pacific south of the equator.
The mystery is: Where is the Aleutian Low in the northern hemisphere summer months when there is no evidence of low surface pressure anywhere near the Aleutian Islands?
The detective work starts at the surface, in northern winter.
This is the way ENSO works. the manner of its construction and operation have nothing to do with carbon dioxide or the works of man in any way shape or form.
Climate Science is corrupt. It goes out of its way to ignore the dynamics that are documented above. That wouldn’t suit the CO2 narrative. Its poison because it introduces the question as to how much the temperature of the air is determined by natural influences including those which are external to the Earth environment.
If academic climate science is corrupt, that which is promulgated at the United Nations is utterly corrupt. The agenda is manifestly, power, control and the redistribution of assets and wealth. All worthy objectives, but the end does not justify the means.
As Jo Nova remarks at her blog, ‘a perfectly good civilization is going to waste. ‘Perfectly good’ may be ‘over the top’, but I must agree with her.
Incidentally, if you are worried about the origin of, or the reaction of governments to the Covid pandemic, or simply want to avoid catching the disease, this story is a ‘must read’ : https://www.mountainhomemag.com/2021/05/01/356270/the-drug-that-cracked-covid
It appears that corruption is more pervasive than I fondly imagined.
I am not particularly fond of cars, tending to hang onto them till the no longer run. The handbook that comes with my most recent purchase, has more pages of than a valid description of the climate system should require.
A. Surface temperature in the mid latitudes is governed by cloud cover.
B. In the tropics, surface temperature varies according to the change in the input of cold water from high latitudes and that upwelling from below.
C. In the tropics more energy is acquired than is emitted to space. The difference goes via ocean transport into the black hole heat absorber that exists in high latitudes. Some is quickly returned to space via radiation in cloud free skies in the mid latitudes.
D. It has long been appreciated that air temperature in high latitudes depends on whether the air is coming from. Due to the deficit in radiation in relation to that emitted as long wave radiation to space, the surface is, on the average, cooler than the air above it. If the westerlies blow harder into a deeper sink of low surface pressure these latitudes will warm. Conversely, if surface pressure rises in high latitudes a cold wind emerges to chill the mid latitudes.
Radiation theory, and the notion of ‘atmospheric forcing’s’ might apply if the atmosphere that is strictly immobile. But the Earth is not like that. Radiation theory lacks a proper focus on the properties of gases. it denies any role for the stratosphere. It fails to appreciate the obvious role of ozone and the importance of the troughs of low surface pressure that form in close conjunction with the air that descends from the mesosphere. It entirely disregards the evolution of the modes of natural variability in the atmosphere and seeks to link them to the change in CO2. Current dogma ignores the variability in albedo to due to change in cloud cover.
In short, the current pretense is not science, its religion, probably the most influential religion that has ever existed, and sadly so. It pits man against his fellow man and makes children fearful for their future. It’s a pox worse than Covid.