When climate change is reduced to incremental additions or subtractions to monthly temperature then it is seen to different according to the month of the year, by latitude and according to hemisphere. Change proceeds in a sinusoidal fashion on Hale Cycle (roughly 22 year) intervals. Change is intimately related to the evolution of surface atmospheric pressure that drives the movements of the atmosphere. Change is unaffected by trace gas composition. It is driven by variations in cloud albedo that are locked to variations in surface atmospheric pressure. The indications are that surface temperature is likely to decline in the current and the next decade.
I have been busy over the winter. Its been wet and when its not raining, extremely cold, so it seemed like a good time to be indoors.
Rather than post a series of articles I thought it better to have a coherent and sequential development, a logical progression and everything in one place.
Its been a rush, because there are so many important things to do. Editorial assistance would be much appreciated. Disturbingly, I discover occasionally, that I have typed, is the opposite of that intended. Perhaps that’s connected to a tendency to dyslexia. I’ve done my best to screen out that sort of thing, but improvement is always possible. I’m conscious that Chapter 12 is a ramble. Impatient by nature, I’m addicted to the quick fix. Perhaps ‘quick and rough’ or ‘quick and dirty’.
I want to thank all the people around me who keep on keeping on when I go into myopic, isolationist, research mode.
I want to thank in advance those who give feedback, offer an opinion or an alternative point of view, either here, by way of comment or direct by email to email@example.com
Chapter headings are:
Chapter 1. On the attribution of climate change
Chapter 2 The manner of the warming
Chapter 3 Possible mechanisms
Chapter 4. Energy flows by latitude. Incoming, reflected, absorbed, transferred, emitted
Chapter 5 Change in the Earths energy budget
Chapter 6 Climate variation due to upwelling phenomena
Chapter 7 Change in the pressure differential across the Pacific Ocean
Chapter 8 Evolution of temperature in the upper troposphere at 30-40°, 20-30° and 10-20° South latitude
Chapter 9 Variability in the pressure differential across the Pacific according to month of year
Chapter 10 Variability in sea surface temperature at the Galapagos, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere and at the Equator.
Chapter 11 To what extent is the upwelling phenomenon reflected in the evolution of surface temperature in the Southern and the Northern Hemispheres?
Chapter 12 Change in cloud albedo drives change in air temperature
Chapter 13 Energy transfer by the atmosphere
Chapter 14 General conclusion to this work
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The most important insight is to do with the nature of the ENSO phenomenon, its origin, the universality of upwelling phenomena in determining surface temperature, the identity between change in wind speed, change in cloud cover, and the warming of the sub surface and the impact of all this on the evolution of surface temperature playing out differently in the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres.
I doubt the existence of any ‘greenhouse effect’ that supposedly raises surface temperature to habitable levels and point to the Ocean that occupies about 71% of the surface of the planet, that in being transparent, is uniquely fitted to acquire and store energy. Its surface temperature is driven by evaporative and mixing processes and rather than insolation from the sun. The atmosphere is gaseous. It has very different properties to water. Radiation by the atmosphere is of minor importance in determining surface temperature. Gas expands when it is warmed and is immediately displaced upwards. It flies better than a kite. Inside a couple of minutes, the rising gas is subject to sub freezing temperatures.
Sadly, or otherwise, depending upon your point of view, Western Civilization is imploding. The argument about climate is inseparably connected to the rise of China and the demise of Europe and the United States. The expression: ‘a drowning man clutching at straws’ is apt. Ethical Investment is a design for impoverishment.
If you want Australia and the West to go on the offensive against China, first, take into account the point of view of Martin Jacques, a man uniquely attuned to the desirability of adopting a well educated, appreciative, cross cultural point of view. Ray Dalio, a long term student of China and the rise and fall of empires, also makes a lot of sense.
This distraction with ‘climate’ and sabre rattling in connection with China is ruinous and likely terminal.
The Southern Hemisphere, as a whole, has not experienced any increase in temperature in the month of January since the decade 1978-1987. Let that statement sink in.
Over the largest portion of the globe, for the largest portion of time, temperature is sub optimal for photosynthesis. All life depends on plants. Let that statement sink in.