Heating of the vast land masses of the northern hemisphere in northern summer reduces global cloud cover and as a result the temperature of the Earth peaks in July.

In January the sun is overhead the most extensive stretch of the global oceans, the south Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic and the enormous Southern Ocean. At this time atmospheric albedo, via cloud cover, peaks. If one is convinced that the Earth is currently a bit to warm for personal comfort then watch out. This conjunction of cloud cover with the peak in energy availability at the surface is but temporary. It will change as the Earth’s orbit around the sun evolves over time. The current era is a good time for polar bears, presuming  that they enjoy  their winter hibernation more than the round of summer activities that includes mating, hunting, and fishing.

Consider the dynamics at work:

  1. By virtue of the fact that the orbit of the Earth around the sun yields peak energy when the Earth’s albedo (comprised in the main of highly reflective ice crystals) is most protective, the Earth is currently cooler than it is likely to be at any time in its cycle of orbital progression around the sun. In particular cooler parts of the globe are currently missing out on energy that could be provided if the southern oceans were warmer.
  2. There was a time when the land masses were not distributed as they are today and peak temperature would have been generated at a different time of the year, perhaps in January, when the sun is closer to the Earth. The climate in all parts of the globe would have been much warmer than today.
  3. If the land masses had migrated to the southern hemisphere instead of the northern, and the Earth’s elliptical orbit around the sun was similar to that we experience today, then  the Earth would be much warmer in the months leading up to and following  the month of January than it is today.
  4. A greenhouse gas (ozone) that uniquely absorbs energy at the peak of long wave energy emission emitted by the Earth has access to a relatively abundant source of power, available day and night at all elevations of the atmosphere. It is not subject to inhibition by ‘cold points’. It becomes the single most important driver of convection, surface pressure and wind at all levels in the atmosphere.
  5. When ozone manifests in the atmosphere in mid to high latitudes (as it does in winter due to low sun angle) it reduces the lapse rate, warms the air giving rise to convection involving the entire atmospheric column. What goes up must come down. When much smaller amounts of ozone are entrained into a column of descending air in the mid latitudes that air will warm causing cloud to evaporate and allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface of the planet. This phenomenon is activated in winter when the the stratosphere is warmer in mid latitudes than it is in summer. The flux of ozone varies on all time scales and is the major factor involved in changing the distribution of the atmosphere, the planetary winds and temperature at the surface of the Earth. It is the flux in the presence of ozone that is responsible for the wide fluctuations in surface temperature experienced in January and July, the timing tied to polar atmospheric processes that change the ozone content of the air, and with it, surface pressure and wind.
  6. As the annular ring like structure of ozone that develops in winter about the pole generates uplift and polar surface pressure simultaneously increases due to the seasonal shift of atmospheric mass from the summer hemisphere, then mesospheric air is drawn into the circulation over the pole dramatically lowering core temperature. The amount of mesospheric air drawn in will relate to the strength of the ozone circulation and should also relate to surface pressure over the pole. As the amount of ozone in the atmospheric column about the pole falls away surface pressure will increase enhancing the descent of mesospheric air over the pole reducing ozone partial pressure.
  7. If ozone proliferates due to reduced penetration of mesospheric air into the atmosphere in high latitudes surface pressure will fall in high latitudes and rise elsewhere.This has been the pattern of the last seventy years in Antarctica.

These drivers of climate change that are entirely natural, in fact organic in the sense that they are a product of the sun-Earth system. They have nothing to do with the works of man. All relate to circumstances at the Earthly end of the Sun-Earth continuum.

All these matters are ignored in climate science as propagated in the works of the UNIPCC.


If  emanations of the sun initiated depletions in polar surface pressure that were further magnified due to the activity of ozone then the sun itself would be responsible for another source of climate change that is organic rather than anthropogenic in origin.

If emanations from the sun changed the composition of the mesosphere or the density of the upper atmosphere there could be knock on effects in the stratosphere.

If the stratosphere were a vigorous medium then changes in ozone partial pressure at the poles would be swiftly transmitted throughout the global atmosphere.  In fact, that is manifestly the case.



The tropical tropopause is as cold as the atmosphere gets in the absence of ozone, as cold as the mesosphere. This coldness at the tropical tropopause is a function of convection driven by latent heat of condensation. The elevated location of the tropical tropopause depends upon the presence of moisture in the atmospheric column.

As latitude increases atmospheric specific humidity falls away and the agent responsible for the elevation of the tropical tropopause is no longer present to the same extent. The moisture driven tropopause evaporates into nothingness, the cold point moves into the stratosphere.

Near the poles the cold point is driven by the descent of very cold mesospheric air in winter, another agent and another phenomenon entirely. Where does this leave the ‘tropopause’ and indeed, the ‘troposphere’. We must realize that the troposphere is a creature of the tropics and the concept of a tropopause has no application outside that realm. We must come to grips with the nature of an atmospheric column that contains increasing amounts of ozone at ever lower altitudes as we approach the pole. We must come to grips with the impact on the ozonosphere of mesospheric air drawn in over the winter pole.

To understand climate we  should monitor an interactive zone that is a much larger entity than what we have been accustomed to call the ‘stratosphere’. In high latitudes it extends from the surface to the outer limits of the mesosphere.

The presence of ozone ensures that the ‘stratosphere’is anything but forbiddingly stratified. Ozone is present in what we have hitherto considered to be the upper troposphere in mid and high latitudes. It gives rise to density differences that produce polar cyclones and the jet stream. It is responsible for the pattern of atmospheric pressure that is associated with all aspects of weather at the surface.

Wind speed increases with altitude to the upper limits of the ‘ozonosphere’. That larger entity stretches from the surface into, and includes the mesosphere.


Consider the temperature profile in the lower mid latitudes:T profile 30-40S

Temperature ceases to fall away with increasing altitude at 100 hPa so that between 100 hPa and 70 hPa there is no difference.  Patently, the temperature at the ‘tropopause’ is a product of the presence of ozone that increases in winter. Ozone affects the temperature profile from 300 hPa upwards, giving rise to density differences between air masses of polar and tropical origin responsible for the tropical arm of the jet stream.

The ‘tropopause’, considered as the coldest point of the atmospheric column lies in that part of the atmosphere where temperature and density of the air is conditioned by the presence of ozone. It is this part of the atmosphere that is responsible for weather and climate at the surface.

We need to revise our concepts and classifications relating to atmospheric matters. Currently, they lead us astray. The make it impossible to apprehend the role that the stratosphere plays in the evolution of weather and climate on all time scales.

We are a victim of our own stupidity.

7 thoughts on “14 ORGANIC CLIMATE CHANGE

  1. Not a victim of stupidity, but of a paradigm. Once our brain is tuned in, its difficult to be truly observant because our subconscious perspective has been narrowed. There are plenty of utube videos as examples. Like count the number of white shirted basketballers passes, yet miss the unusual event….being the man in a gorilla suit walk through the court. I think some call them scotoma ‘s.


  2. I agree with what you say. However inability to perceive the bigger picture is a form of stupidity. Many are engaged in an argument as to the value of secondary forcing’s supposedly induced by increasing CO2. Step back first and ask whether CO2 acts as a forcing for surface temperature. Step back even further and ask whether a little warming in high latitudes in winter is not a good thing. Step back even further and ask what is the most desirable temperature for the surface of the Earth if we were to look at the Earth as a conservative farmer would look at his land.

    In that context, the very close focus on determining the value of the supposed secondary forcing is not adaptive problem solving behaviour. You take it for granted that the primary forcing represents reality. You take it for granted that warming must be undesirable. You take it for granted that a global statistic is a meaningful entity worthy of close attention.


  3. Erl,

    The ease with which people comprehend a complex topic has something to do with the graphics used. Speaking for myself I think this post would work better if you flipped the values on the temperature axis so that they effectively read backwards, i.e. colder at the top and warmer at the bottom. That means the surface is at the bottom, and the mesosphere at the top. This is how we experience the world, feet on the earth and looking up at the sky. Then point out what you have done in a caption. It’s not that I am particularly slow in understanding things (got a PhD in geology even), just that good illustrations are worth thousands of words, and convey stuff in seconds that might take hours of study otherwise.


    1. Rob R. Point taken. Just been looking at diagrams prepared by Dobson where the tropopause is treated as the zero point. This caters for the problem that the cold point tropopause is higher in high pressure cells by up to 4km than in low pressure cells. He shows that wind velocity is greatest at and below the tropopause. falling away above and below.


      1. Just been looking at your vineyard website. Love to come over and try your Cab Sav, Merlot and Shiraz. But its a three hour drive to the airport and then a long flight to Perth from Christchurch etc. One can always dream.

        Keep up the good work.


  4. Been to Christchurch, stayed in Bannockburn and marvelled at the landscape where trees grow on the hillsides where it never rains and in winter ice sits in a bucket of water all day. We are three hours drive south of Perth. We have a cottage on a lake ready for you.


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