The table shows the average temperature at the 1000 millibar pressure level (sea level) for the Southern Hemisphere for the last seven decades. The warmest decade is marked in red and the coolest in blue.
The warmest decade in January occurred in 1979-1988. The failure to warm indicates that the much celebrated hypothetical link between carbon dioxide and atmospheric temperature is absent. Carbon dioxide is well mixed. It’s supposed effects on the temperature of the atmosphere, via ‘back radiation’ should be present in all locations, at all times, continuously. Plainly, if it skips the entire southern hemisphere, in January, for thirty years, its a furphy. A ‘furphy’ is an Australian term for an erroneous or improbable story that is claimed to be factual.
The data is from the NCEP reanalysis accessible here:
NCEP reanalysis provides a record of the characteristics of the atmosphere at seventeen pressure levels from the surface of the globe to the 10 millibar pressure level’. The NCEP record begins in 1948. From the 1960”s accuracy and reliability has been enhanced via access to observations from orbiting satellites.
Reanalysis data-sets are used in climate diagnostics and attribution.
The are created by assimilating (“inputting”) climate observations using the same climate model throughout the entire reanalysis period in order to reduce the affects of modeling changes on climate statistics. Observations are from many different sources including ships, satellites, ground stations, RAOBS, and radar.
Via reanalysis the inconsistency due to constant adjustment of the surface temperature record is avoided. Sampling error is reduced. Localized ‘urban warming’ in human settlements on land is less likely to affect the record.
Students of the change that has occurred in the Earths atmosphere should be aware that it is not at the surface, but in the region where the troposphere interacts with the stratosphere that surface wind and climate is driven.
The next post will explore the factors responsible for change. One can not begin to explain the causes of change unless one is familiar with the characteristics of change. Fortunately, change comes with a time signature that provides the vital clue as to its origin.